1. SKYNET 5 SpaceWx Resilience in GEO SatCom –L5 Mission Perspective Dr Phil Wadey
Head of Space SKYNET Spacecraft Management Authority
* 15 minute talk
* Introduce speaker, background &c
SMA 170 – 27 Jun 19
TX-VG S-ABDS

2. Some background – why am I interested in the L5 mission proposal?
The SKYNET constellation spans 34W to 95E, and is has two distinct classes of spacecraft:
SK4s – 90’s vintage, now operating more than 3 to 4 times original design life, highly inclined, designed before the more modern understanding of SpaceWx was developed.
SK5s – 00’s era, properly Geostationary, can be regarded as ‘mid-life’.
Two very different generations giving us a good perspective of SpaceWx issues.
Different designs
Different technologies
Different susceptibilities to Space Wx types and effects

3. The Complexity of SpaceWx is Difficult to Envisage Operationally
Both the complexity of the SpaceWx particle impact on Spacecraft need to be understood,
As well as the very complex reaction of the Magnetosphere and Ionosphere – for SpaceWx Forecasting.
This is a multidisciplinary effort where limitations and potential impacts to services in multiple Operations and Engineering Domains need to be understood and communicated.
We are fortunate not to be in isolation though, and I will now talk about what we have done in collaboration with others.

4. SKYNET 5 and Live SpaceWx Operations
The Story So Far:
SKYNET has provided and taken part in five real-time SpaceWx Exercises, incrementally developing a capability to deal with Severe SpaceWx Effects. A sixth will take place in October this year. In September 2017 our processes were challenged for real and worked well.
The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) acting as our forecaster has been an essential partner throughout.
Understanding of the capability for SpaceWx to impact our Spacecraft Operations and Service Delivery, and how to mitigate it has been actively supported by:
Our Internal Engineering and Planning teams
QinetiQ and [dstl]
Our principal customer, the UK Ministry of Defence
Participation in exercises cooperating with the US DoD, the US STRATCOM 557th Weather Wing, 2nd Space Sqn.
We maintain a proactive, positive approach to training and competency maintenance.
Following the Government Chief Scientist’s direction in 2014 that SpaceWx was a Tier One threat, we have been developing our capability to mitigate the impacts of Extreme SpaceWx.
Through initial table-tops and later exercises, we showed that there were considerable advantages to reacting well to good forecasting in preserving assets and proactively preparing for recovery.
In September 2017, our reaction to AR , this occurring during Hurricane MARIA relief in the Caribbean, was the first real test – and we did well.
(4E repo event)
We have liaised extensively and successfully with the MOSWOC as an actively contributing user of their SpaceWx Forecasting products.
Whilst our key goal is to preserve the SKYNET assets through a SpaceWx event, delivering ongoing capability is important too, as is helping our Service Users understand the impacts they will face.
Our exercises have always sought to involve our Service Users and tale advice from acknowledged experts.
… and we take training very seriously – both as a way to impart understanding, and as a way to identify Operational and Cadence constraints.
Briefly outline SpaceWx AIC:
Brief from MOSWOC advisor
Consider operational stance
Decide way ahead for operations
This is all only achievable if the forecasters i.e. MOSWOC have access to good data.

5. Planning and Mitigating Space Operations
SpaceWx has the potential to impact Space Operations very broadly through many mechanisms and interactions.
Space-Based Services Provision
Scintillation of the Ionosphere impeding uplink and downlink
Degradation of GNSS providing both Navigation and Timing
Controlling, Managing and Maintaining Spacecraft
Interruption to Telemetry, Tracking and Control signals
Spacecraft materials damage over time These may give rise to ‘anomalies’
Onboard memory corruptions and spurious switching
Function and Availability of the Ground Segment
Interruption of Power
Terrestrial Data lines to Satellite Ground Stations
Personnel movement due to impact on transportation
Planning mitigation is possible by looking at the mechanisms affecting key components.
NOAA describes this as ‘Sun to Mud Coupling’ – which is entirely appropriate.
* Effects from the surface of the Sun have an impact right down on the surface of the Earth.
Determining the impact to systems requires an understanding of the physics mechanism and the dependencies daisy-chained out to support Operations.

6. Inner Belt: South Atlantic Anomaly
The Magnetosphere
Inner Belt: South Atlantic Anomaly
The challenge-map to Spacecraft operators is rich with mechanisms for service interruptions.
We want to be able to react to forecasts, not just be told of current levels. This enables us to change what we are doing to maximise our operational capability.

7. SpaceWx Understanding for Operations and Service Support
Integration of ‘Routine’ SpaceWx Forecasting to obtain:
For Us:
Information of Engineering value in Spacecraft On-Orbit Management and Design.
Operational Planning Optimisation – doing the right things at the best times.
Increased efficiency in Engineering problem resolution through discrimination of SpaceWx-induced and other faults.
For our Service Users:
Increases in Service quality and reliability.
Enhanced capacity for realistic simulation and exercise.
Operational design for Space Weather resiliency is a very recent thing.
Awareness of the potential impact to assets and services was pretty low in the preceding decades – and excepting a few incidents, regarded then as ‘exceptional’, Man’s experience of Near Earth Space has been in unusually benign fortune for the last two Solar Cycles at least.
As science informs us more, we need to review and develop our Operational practices, as our Service Users become familiar with impacts they have seldom experienced.

8. Operational SpaceWx Forecasting – Key Requirements & Characteristics
Forecasting that matches the look-forward of Terrestrial Weather, in:
Depth of Outlook
Consistent degree of Confidence Statement Precision
Projected Development of Conditions
Generation Cadence that Supports Operational Flow
Direct Linkage of Forecast Events to Operational Impacts
Spacecraft Operators are very astute at appraising and balancing Operational Risks and have high system awareness at the technical level.
Dealing successfully with Potential SpaceWx Impacts requires expression of Forewarning, Risk, Confidence and Duration to the same standard of other environmental and operational events.
We are actually very good at reacting to events Operationally as SKYNET.
SpaceWx is no ‘bogeyman’ or Science Fiction monster, it is just another set of challenging circumstances that trained people with good forecasting and a plan can react to.
A key limitation is the lack of forecasting warning that can be generated from having instrumentation along the Sun –Earth line only …

9. The Value of a Mission at L5
Increases the Surface Visibility of the advancing limb of the Sun:
Extended opportunity to observe Active Region Development
Increased fidelity of the Whole Solar Magnetic Model
Allows early sample of Solar Wind Speed and Composition
Significantly increased precision in CME speed and arrival time
All of these would enable the SpaceWx Forecaster to provide Forewarning, Risk, Confidence and Duration of event products and statements at a cadence we could use.
This is not a Science Mission, an OPERATIONAL one though of course, Science would benefit.
The more forecasters can see on the Surface of the Sun, the greater the advance warning Spacecraft Operators and Space Service Users can have, and the higher the certainty we can perform our Operations.
It is not for me to explain the mix of instruments that an L5 mission should carry, but listed here are some of the capabilities a mission to this location would unlock that matter to SKYNET.
However, key to this mission is that it is not for SCIENCE: with a 24/7 365 day output, its job is to support OPERATIONS of all kinds.

10. SKYNET 5 Experience – Some Mission Recommendations
Our Programme manages our Mission almost completely In-House:
Anomalies on Spacecraft and Performance Trend Monitoring
Ground Segment Maintenance and Evolution
Doing both Ground and Space under the same Management Control is highly efficient:
Activities can be coordinated effectively, both for resources and planning time
Excellent insight into the work of other expert groups is readily maintained
Communication in resolving complex problems is considerably easier
It’s not all about this Spacecraft!
A 24/7 – 365 day Mission requires a Diverse, Geographically Distributed Satellite Ground Station with considerable Redundancy
This Mission is a challenging one with learning points to affect the follow-on
The ability to maintain a motivated core, dedicated team will need to be part of the design
As providers of services of a 24/7, 365 day nature, it is possible to provide at least comments on how an L5 mission should run and note key challenges that will need to be faced –
As head of the SKYNET Space Directorate, I pretty much have a one-stop shop where both Space and Ground issues can be worked on as part of one team. I must recommend this as being highly effective.
Indeed, the progress we have made in addressing SpaceWx challenges to SKYNET was directly enabled by having experts from diverse disciplines in the one team.
I must also urge you most strongly to look beyond the technical specifications and sensor capabilities of the L5 Spacecraft itself – no matter how cute and clever it is.
Throughout the lifetime of your programme, it is a certainty that at least an order of magnitude in ongoing engineering effort on the Ground Segment compared to Spacecraft In-Orbit Management will be required. The Initial design, redesign for maintenance and obsolescence management, computing and data link refreshes as well as managing multiple geographically separated sites will amount to a significant ongoing effort.
And lessons will be learnt – if you are not already designing the follow-on by the time this one reaches station, you will be late!
People too, matter: part of the essential mission design is the development of a sustainable team dedicated to this unique task.

11. Point of Contact for Questions
Dr Phil Wadey
Head of Space
SKYNET Spacecraft Management Authority
+44 (0)
1001 Skynet Drive
CORSHAM
SN13 9NP