1. SATELLITES IN DEVELOPMENT
NATHAN DE RUITER
MANAGING DIRECTOR, EUROCONSULT CANADA

2. LATEST HEADLINES
“Start of the digital era”
“ From hardware to software”

3. AGENDA: ANSWER TWO QUESTIONS
What is driving technology changes in satellites under development?
What technology innovations are soon to be available on the market?

4. GEO COMSAT ORDER BOOK IN PERSECTIVE30 7
GEO commercial comsats ordered so far in 2019, same level as full-year 2017 and 2018 25 20
Golden age of
orders/year are gone and not likely to return. Manufacturers now expect
orders per year 20 15
LAUNCH 10
MANUFACTURING
ORDER
15 years between two order low points 15 5
Capex reduction to improve profitability after Internet bubble
High market uncertainty
2000
2018

5. GEO COMSAT ORDER BOOK IN PERSECTIVE
Replacement Satellite Orders
Expansion/new Satellite Orders

6. GEO COMSAT ORDER BOOK IN PERSECTIVE
Regional Operator Orders
Global Operator Orders
Other Operator Orders

7. SATELLITE PROCUREMENT: GLOBAL OPERATORS (2019)
GEO SATELLITES
NO. OF IN ORBIT GEO SATELLITES
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
C-band Alliance satellites
Uncertainty around NGSO play
>50 3
O3b mPower (NGSO)
“GEO Next” batch order
>40 1
Konnect VHTS (GEO), Quantum
LEO IoT constellation
>35 6
T.LEO – up to 300 satellites, manufacturer choice by YE2019
>15
5 GEO-HTS + 2 HEO-HTS payloads in construction
>10 5

8. GEO COMSAT ORDER BOOK IN PERSECTIVE
Regional Operator Orders
Global Operator Orders
Other Operator Orders

9. SATELLITE PROCUREMENT: REGIONAL OPERATORS
GEO SATS orders ↓
Revenue ↓
Future demand ?
Market environment?
Hard to close business case
New Procurement model and business model
Condosat VHTS
Small GEO
VNO model for NGSO broadband constellations

10. COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES: SATELLITE PROCUREMENT
Satellite operators and manufacturers are adopting a varied mix of innovative approaches and technologies in order to improve competitiveness of their satellite fleets and capacity.
CHEAPER
BROADBAND CONSTELLATIONS
VHTS SYSTEMS
BATCH SATELLITE ORDERS
SMALLER
VERY SMALL GEO SATELLITES
NANO-SATELLITES
ELECTRIC PROPULSION
AGILE
RECONFIGURABLE PAYLOADS
BEAM HOPPING
FULLY DIGITAL PAYLOAD

11. CHEAPER: Driving down costs-based economics01
Complex→ Simplified System 02
Cost reduction & production efficiency 03
Centralization & Standardization
Building smallsats in a viable economic model and adapting their complex manufacturing capabilities into very rapid, simplified systems
to adapt to customer requirements in terms of price and time delivery—and to maximize profitability—satellite manufacturers are implementing different strategies targeting cost reduction and production efficiencies
Centralization of production, standardization across product lines, and new manufacturing processes, have been adopted by most manufacturers

12. CHEAPER: Driving down the capex efficiency
SPACE SEGMENT COST BENCHMARK – CAPEX* PER GBPS (in U.S.$ millions)
REGULAR SATELLITES
Capacity: 1–3 Gbps
Capex: $180–200m
>$60
>$7
HTS - CLASS I
Capacity: 10–50 Gbps
Capex: $200–350m
>$3
HTS-CLASS II
Capacity: 50–150 Gbps
Capex: $350–450m
HTS - CLASS III
Capacity: 150–350 Gbps
Capex: $500–600m
>$1.7
COMING POST-2021
VHTS-CLASS
Capacity: 1 -6 Tbps
Capex: $600m–$5bn
>$0.7

13. Small geo versus very small geo
SMALL FLEXSAT
DEVELOPMENT
FIRST DEPLOYMENTS
~2,000Kg
15 years
Gbps
$ m
Inmarsat
GX-7, 8 & 9
Inspire
Onesat
702X small GEO
VERY SMALL GEO
DEVELOPMENT
FIRST DEPLOYMENTS
Astranis-1 Kg
7-8 years
Gbps
$60-$100m
Gapsat-1
Ovzon-3
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

14. Driving down the capex efficiency
SPACE SEGMENT COST BENCHMARK – CAPEX* PER GBPS (in U.S.$ millions)
REGULAR SATELLITES
Capacity: 1–3 Gbps
Capex: $180–200m
>$60
Small GEO Satellite
>$7
HTS - CLASS I
Capacity: 10–50 Gbps
Capex: $200–350m ?
>$3
HTS-CLASS II
Capacity: 50–150 Gbps
Capex: $350–450m
HTS - CLASS III
Capacity: 150–350 Gbps
Capex: $500–600m
>$1.7
COMING POST-2021
VHTS-CLASS
Capacity: 1 -6 Tbps
Capex: $600m–$5bn
>$0.7

15. 03 01 02 04 Flexibility: 4 domains COVERAGE FREQUENCY PLAN
Ability to change coverage
High performing interference management
Ability to change frequency plan
Flexibility in channel bandwidth and frequency conversion
COVERAGE
FREQUENCY PLAN 01 02
Ability to react to the highs and lows of traffic demand
Flexible beam-to-beam connectivity
Ability to provide services in either Star and/or Mesh networks
NETWORK CONNECTIVITY
BANDWIDTH ALLOCATION 04

16. Trend towards affordable flexibility
Type of system
VHTS systems
Small GEO satellites
Digital processing capabilities
Intersatellite links
Beam hopping
Standardized satellite platforms (2.5-3 tons)
Mission programmable satellites (SDR)
Technology
Market
Real time resource management
Dynamic bandwidth and coverage allocation  optimize the commercially usable Gbps
Capex target at <1 m$/Gbps
Flexibility in fleet management (change orbital location) or mission
Quick capacity augmentation through co-location of multiple small satellites
Lower capex than the SmallGEO of the past with flexibility by design

17. Introducing the FOURTH DIMENSION
CHEAPER
SMALLER
AGILE
STANDARDIZE

18. Standardization TOWARDS Seamless roaming?
GEO
LEO
MEO
O3b mPOWER
Standardization TOWARDS Seamless roaming?
Standardized flexible satellites
Interoperable ground network
Roaming agreement across operators
New user terminals
The evolution into software defined features running over common hardware platforms is a necessity

19. Thank you for your attention
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