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Technical Committee Meeting (TCM)

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Presentation on theme: "Technical Committee Meeting (TCM)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Technical Committee Meeting (TCM)
National Hydrology Project BBMB

2 Decision in Last TCM (25th March 2019)
Actual Date Bhakra Outflow (Cusec) 1st - 9th April 17100  13980 10th - 20th April 13800  8142 21st - 25th April 14600  12447 26th April 16100 27th - 30th April 17900 Decision in Last TCM Actual Date PongOutflow (Cusec) 1st - 24th April 1250  1325 25th - 27th April 7795 28th - 30th April 12245

3 Reservoirs Level on 25th April….
Level variation (increment) in w.r.t 2018 Level variation (increment) in w.r.t 2017 Bhakra Level (Feet) 84.83 83.75 Pong Level (Feet) 49.41 40.43 Bhakra Existing Live Capacity = 58.64% Pong Existing Live Capacity = 47.41%

4 Bhakra inflow compared with Exceedance Probability
From 1st October to 25th April 2019, inflow is 15.96% exceedance probability From 25th March to 25th April 2019, inflow is 19.69% exceedance probability

5 Bhakra Level on 25th April….
Level of 25th April Level of 25th April Level of 25th March Level of 25th March

6 Bhakra Level graph in 2011 and 2019…
Snowmelt in 2011 – 5383 MCM Expected Snowmelt in 2019 – 6328 MCM

7 Bhakra Outflow graph in 2011 and 2019…
Bhakra Outflow in March 2019 – Cusec Bhakra Outflow in April 2019 – 11105* Cusec Bhakra Outflow in March 2011 – Cusec Bhakra Outflow in April 2011 – Cusec Bhakra Outflow in May 2011 – Cusec Bhakra Outflow in June 2011 – Cusec Bhakra Outflow in July 2011 – Cusec Bhakra Outflow in August 2011 – Cusec Bhakra Outflow in September 2011 – Cusec *Till 25th April 2019

8 Inflow & Outflow Bhakra October onward …
Reservoirs October November December January February March April Average Bhakra Inflow (Cusec) Current 14500 8985 6723 6000 9050 9078 15983* 9980 Bhakra Inflow (Cusec) last Year 12020 7575 6400 5540 5675 5172 7375 7110 Bhakra Outflow Current (Cusec) 12000 10200 13000 15500 13515 16670 11105* 13140 Bhakra Last Year Outflow (Cusec) 11940 12830 16500 17500 18000 18500 11000 15180 Bhakra 10 Years Average Outflow (Cusec) 16700 14150 17000 16000 15690 *Till 25th April 2019

9 Bhakra Inflow in Snowmelt Period….
Snowmelt Period Inflow in Bhakra Last Year Long Term Model Dry Year Dependable Year Mean Year Average inflow in Cusec 14860 28425 16670 21120 25750 April –June (MCM) 3308 6328 3711 4701 5734

10 Bhakra Level Scenario – 10 Years Average Outflow
Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Dependable Year Inflow Mean Year Inflow Average 10 Year outflow 30-Apr 15956 10062 12941 15555 13100 10-May 17423 12172 15759 19918 20900 20-May 20657 14320 18101 24041 22900 31-May 27237 17673 23038 27924 21800 10-Jun 41505 21263 27169 34102 24000 20-Jun 50644 27066 40283 28300 30-Jun 51133 31850 39282 47116 29700 10-Jul 45692 37068 46200 51966 28200 20-Jul 43934 41865 49241 56520 28600 31-Jul 54000 43755 53568 60090 27800 10-Aug 56310 44054 54127 61819 26800 20-Aug 40578 42522 54342 61097 28400 31-Aug 32238 37814 43881 50059 10-Sep 20292 30961 36034 40065 24200 20-Sep 14485 22541 28363 32011 Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow-Level Dry Year Inflow-Level Dependable Year Inflow-Level Mean Year Inflow-Level 30-Apr 1625 1622 1623 10-May 1616 1620 1624 20-May 1621 1610 1617 31-May 1607 1618 1629 10-Jun 1636 1605 1635 20-Jun 1650 1604 1643 30-Jun 1662 1606 1630 1652 10-Jul 1671 1612 1641 1666 20-Jul 1679 1653 1680 31-Jul 1693 1632 1669 10-Aug 1683 20-Aug 1651 31-Aug 1656 10-Sep 1660 20-Sep 1659

11 Bhakra Level Scenario – 10 Years Average Outflow

12 Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Min Snowmelt till 30th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 30K Cusec Outflow for May to August Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Dependable Year Inflow Mean Year Inflow Average 10 Year outflow 30-Apr 15361 15000 10-May 15681 30000 20-May 18592 31-May 24513 10-Jun 37355 20-Jun 45580 30-Jun 46020 10-Jul 45692 37068 46200 51966 20-Jul 43934 41865 49241 56520 31-Jul 54000 43755 53568 60090 10-Aug 56310 44054 54127 61819 20-Aug 40578 42522 54342 61097 31-Aug 32238 37814 43881 50059 10-Sep 20292 30961 36034 40065 20000 20-Sep 14485 22541 28363 32011 Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow-Level Dry Year Inflow-Level Dependable Year Inflow-Level Mean Year Inflow-Level 30-Apr 1624 10-May 1614 20-May 1606 31-May 1602 10-Jun 1607 20-Jun 1618 30-Jun 1629 10-Jul 1639 1634 1643 20-Jul 1648 1641 1651 1658 31-Jul 1662 1649 1666 1676 10-Aug 1657 1678 1692 20-Aug 1681 1664 1691 31-Aug 1682 1669 10-Sep 1683 1674 20-Sep 1680

13 Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Min Snowmelt till 30th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 30K Cusec Outflow for May to August

14 Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Snowmelt till 30th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 30K Cusec Outflow for May to August Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Dependable Year Inflow Mean Year Inflow Average 10 Year outflow 30-Apr 15956 15000 10-May 17423 30000 20-May 20657 31-May 27237 10-Jun 41505 20-Jun 50644 30-Jun 51133 10-Jul 45692 37068 46200 51966 20-Jul 43934 41865 49241 56520 31-Jul 54000 43755 53568 60090 10-Aug 56310 44054 54127 61819 20-Aug 40578 42522 54342 61097 31-Aug 32238 37814 43881 50059 10-Sep 20292 30961 36034 40065 20000 20-Sep 14485 22541 28363 32011 Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow-Level Dry Year Inflow-Level Dependable Year Inflow-Level Mean Year Inflow-Level 30-Apr 1624 10-May 1616 20-May 1609 31-May 1607 10-Jun 1615 20-Jun 1629 30-Jun 1643 10-Jul 1651 1647 1652 1655 20-Jul 1659 1653 1662 1670 31-Jul 1674 1676 1687 10-Aug 1669 1688 20-Aug 1675 31-Aug 1680 10-Sep 20-Sep Outflow in rest of April considered 15K Cusec

15 Bhakra Level Scenario – Modelled Snowmelt till 30th June & various inflows in Monsoon & 30K Cusec Outflow for May to August

16 Pong Level on 25th April…. Level on 25th April 2019 - 1343.08

17 Pong inflow compared with Exceedance Probability
From 1st October to 25th April 2019, inflow is 15.53% exceedance probability From 25th March to 25th April 2019, inflow is 26.67% exceedance probability

18 Inflow & Outflow Pong October onward …
Reservoirs October November December January February March April Average Pong Inflow (Cusec) Current 5655 2855 2331 3230 7650 4401 4460* 4370 Pong Inflow (Cusec) last Year 3420 1915 3050 2065 1910 1317 1657 2190 Pong Outflow Current (Cusec) 13500 11450 13700 12700 12685 8110 1031* 10450 Pong Last Year Outflow (Cusec) 13000 11500 13800 12000 12600 12200 1390 10930 Pong 10 Years Average Outflow (Cusec) 10500 12800 10000 8500 2500 9400 *Till 25th March 2019

19 Pong Level Scenario – 10 Years Average Outflow
Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow Dry Year Inflow Dependable Year Inflow Mean Year Inflow Average 10 Year outflow 30-Apr 3263 1322 1733 2854 2300 10-May 2840 721 2455 2471 5200 20-May 2264 838 2047 2834 6300 31-May 3915 1148 1391 3270 7700 10-Jun 9861 1035 2571 4507 6800 20-Jun 8221 2533 5000 6926 8500 30-Jun 4760 2391 6133 10153 8400 10-Jul 30628 7611 12325 19057 9200 20-Jul 26597 11810 21875 29668 8800 31-Jul 44305 21700 31609 41097 9700 10-Aug 68726 22095 35723 47144 11700 20-Aug 46390 23915 38692 51839 17600 31-Aug 28212 18695 26843 37973 15800 10-Sep 22000 10860 18115 27627 10900 20-Sep 10050 5804 17802 12400 Inflow Scenario/Date Model Inflow-Level Dry Year Inflow-Level Dependable Year Inflow-Level Mean Year Inflow-Level 30-Apr 1343 10-May 1342 1341 20-May 1338 1340 31-May 1339 1335 1337 10-Jun 1332 20-Jun 1329 1333 1336 30-Jun 1326 10-Jul 1348 1325 20-Jul 1356 1327 1351 31-Jul 1372 1334 1366 10-Aug 1393 1361 1379 20-Aug 1369 1392 31-Aug 1373 10-Sep 1376 20-Sep 1375

20 Pong Level Scenario – 10 Years average Outflow

21 Snow Accumulation in Satluj and Beas Basin
Satluj Catchment March 2014 March 2015 March 2016 March 2017 March 2018 March 2019 SWE Volume (MCM) 5765 7966 4199 5533 2444 11488 Snowmelt April- June Inflow (MCM) 4836 5434 4626 5081 3307 6325 July Inflow (MCM) 3758 4237 2988 3884 2900 Beas Catchment March 2014 March 2015 March 2016 March 2017 March 2018 March 2019 SWE Volume (MCM) 1767 1841 1162 1367 789 2706 Snowmelt Pandoh April- June Inflow (MCM) 1983 2311 1845 1895 1272 2275

22 Snowmelt Runoff in Satluj and Beas Basin
Average Inflow_ Bhakra (Cusec) Average Inflow_ Pong (Cusec) Average Inflow_ Pandoh (Cusec) 4/10/2019 15058 4551 7251 4/20/2019 16326 3824 7575 4/30/2019 15956 3263 7174 5/10/2019 17423 2840 7109 5/20/2019 20657 2264 7842 5/31/2019 27237 3915 12469 6/10/2019 41505 9861 16859 6/20/2019 50644 8221 14725 6/30/2019 51133 4760 10821

23 Temperature pattern in 1st fortnight of April in Satluj and Beas Basin
China Portion: Blue Line – Current Year temperature pattern, Red Line - Last year Temperature pattern Rongtong Portion: Blue Line – Current Year temperature pattern, Red Line - Last year Temperature pattern

24 Temperature pattern in 1st fortnight of April in Satluj and Beas Basin
Indian Portion_Satluj Rive: Blue Line – Current Year temperature pattern, Red Line - Last year Temperature pattern Pandoh Region: Blue Line – Current Year temperature pattern, Red Line - Last year Temperature pattern

25 Thank you

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