1. Week 27 Review
The week started in the glow from the G20 meeting where the US and China agreed to not levy new tariffs and Trump backed off the Huawei ban, to an extent.
BoE’s Carney talked down the UK economy on Tuesday, adding to the GBP woes.
RBA’s Lowe seemed to suggest a halt to further rate cuts on Tuesday, after cutting for the second time in consecutive months. This adds to the “not so dovish” sentiment from the Fed the previous week.
From mid-week onwards things were a touch gloomy with a bad PMI miss and a miss on Average Hourly Earnings, both in the US.
Equities gapped up on the Sunday open due to the G20, and continued up until dropping on Friday, producing a gain over the week.
WTI was down on the week as “sell the fact” took over after OPEC agreed a production cut extension on Monday.
GOLD was volatile but held its position above major resistance.
In FX, trends (on the weekly) were maintained in CAD (up) and GBP (down). The USD has just established a new down trend. The EUR broke its uptrend by making a lower low. AUD, NZD and JPY are consolidating.

2. 28 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 8/7/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
China expected to name foreign companies considered national security risk.
Turkey Central Bank Gov removed due to refusal to lower rates.
Powell – risk of weak inflation being even more persistent than currently anticipated. US Q2 growth has moderated; appears to have slowed in some major foreign economies. Dovish (expect USD down, equities up).
France plans to tax tech cos. Potential retaliatory tariffs from US.
Risk
Risk sentiment floated around neutral for the entire week
Themes
USD, CAD, GBP – trending currencies, Equities, TRY weakness, GOLD.
USD
Down trend established
Powell, others
Powell testifies on the
Semi-annual
Monetary Policy Report;
FOMC Mtg Mins – many felt cut warranted
Powell testifies – 2nd day;
CPI (headline and core)
PPI
EUR
Up trend broken
Monetary Policy Mtg Accounts – agreement on need to change stance (easing, i.e. rate cut)
JPY
Consolidating
GBP
Down
GDP;
Manufacturing Production
BoE Financial Stability Report – tightening likely
CAD Up
Overnight Rate, Statement, Monetary Policy Report
AUD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
NZD
Following AUD
CNY
CPI
Trade Balance
Equities
Gold
Resistance broken
Oil
Choppy
API Inventories:
-8.1m vs -3.1m
EIA Inventories:
-9.5m vs -1.9m
Gulf of Mexico – 32% prod cut due to imminent cyclone.
Iran try to seize British tanker.
Gulf of Mexico – now 70% cut.

3. Week 28 Review
The major event of the week was Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report where he re-established the Fed’s dovishness. This was slightly tempered the next day when CPI beat expectations. On balance, a 25bp cut rather than a 50 bp cut seems likely at the Fed meeting on 31st July.
US equities rose on the Fed’s dovishness but elsewhere equities were down over the week.
The USD was down on the week (Fed dovishness again) and is in an established down trend. Other trending currencies are CAD and NZD (up) and GBP (down). The EUR had an up week but that came on the back of having broken its uptrend.
WTI moved up on two bullish inventory reports and on a 70% production cut in the Gulf of Mexico due to storm Barry which is currently over the south-east USA.
GOLD was up on the week, maintaining its place above significant resistance.

4. 29 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 15/7/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
Erdogan – “significantly lower rates by end of year”. Possible sanctions on S-400. Both bad for TRY.
Trump says “long way to go” wrt China.
Risk
Neutral/off
Off
Neutral/on
Themes
Equities (US – pullbacks; Japan225 long), weak TRY, trending FX (CAD, GBP, USD), AUD, GOLD
USD
Down trend established
Retail Sales
EUR
Up trend broken
JPY
Consolidating
Holiday
GBP
Down trend
“Most difficult” Brexit mtg last week – EU officials. Deutsche Bank say 45% chance of no-deal
Average Earnings
CPI;
House of Lords backs no parliament shut down
Retail Sales;
MPs back no parliament shut down (140pm UK time)
CAD
Up trend
CPI
AUD
Monetary Policy Meeting Mins – maintains focus on labour market
(Un)employment
NZD
CNY
GDP
Equities Up
“Peak Netflix”
Gold
Resistance broken
Oil
Choppy
Workers return in Gulf of Mexico post storm Barry
API Inventories:
-1.4m vs -2.7m
EIA Inventories:
-3.1m vs -3.6m

5. Week 29 Review A quiet week with little US news and commentary.
US equities pulled back from all-time highs. There was little movement in other global equities.
WTI fell on profit taking as Storm Barry moved away and Gulf of Mexico production returned.
GOLD tried to pull out of its consolidation zone but failed on the Friday.
In the currency markets, the main movers were GBP (down) and NZD (up).

6. 30 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 22/7/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
Iran seizes two UK tankers. Sanctions on Turkey still being discussed.
USTR Lighthizer off to China next week for talks
President Xi to possibly join next week’s trade mtg in Shanghai; Washington mtg also tentatively scheduled
CBRT Rate Decision (TRY), 1100 GMT – 425bp cut, Erdogan says cautious in terms of further cuts, TRY rises;
NK launch 2 missiles into sea
Risk On
Off
Themes
Equities, weak GBP, monitor AUD, TRY
USD
Down trend established
Advanced GDP
EUR
Down trend
FR Manu and Services PMI;
DE Manu (lowest since 2012) and Services PMI
Refinancing Rate – dovish, indicated rate cut in Sept and bond purchases
JPY
Consolidating
Tokyo Core CPI
GBP
New PM announced
CAD
AUD
RBA Ass Gov Kent
RBA Gov Lowe speaks – “readiness to ease if required”
NZD
Up trend
Trade Balance
Westpac forecast cuts in Aug and Nov
CNY
Equities
Pullback from highs
DoJ to open broad anti-trust investigation against big tech firms
Gold
Resistance broken
Oil
Choppy
API Inventories:
-11.0m vs -4.0m
EIA Inventories:
-10.8m vs -4.2m
(some bearish elements)

7. Week 30 Review
Risk sentiment was positive for most of the week with the resumption of Trade talks in China planned for week 31 and further talks in Washington thereafter. The USD and US equities did well with the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing the week at new all-time highs, aided by Google results and GDP.
Things were not so bright for the EUR with bad misses on Services and Manufacturing PMIs and a dovish ECB on Thursday. European equities were buoyed by the ECB dovishness but the EUR dropped.
The UK got a new PM on Wednesday. UK equities were up on general risk sentiment but the GBP fell on increased chances of a no-deal Brexit.
The JPY was flat despite the risk sentiment.
WTI and GOLD moved little.
Both AUD and NZD were hit by the expectation of further rate cuts.

8. 31 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 29/7/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
US/China trade talks;
Trump threatening reciprocal action on Macron’s tech tax;
Trump dismisses USD intervention
Further NK missile tests
US/China trade talks collapse after half a day
Trump announces 10% tariff on the remaining USD300b of Chinese exports to the US, as of Sept 1.
More NK missile tests
Risk
Neutral/off
Off
Themes
Equities (pullback), GBP weakness (GBPUSD), USD strength (AUDUSD), TRY
USD
Near 2 yr + highs
Core PCE
Fed Funds Rate –
25bp cut as expected “not the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”, 2 dissenters, hawkish press conf – overall hawkish
ISM Manu PMI
Average Hourly Earnings;
NFP, Unemployment
EUR
Down trend
Headline/Core Flash CPI;
Prelim Flash GDP
JPY
Consolidating
Monetary Policy Statement –
no change
GBP
PM Johnson refuses to meet EU leaders unless they remove backstop
Super Thursday and press conf – short term downwards revision to CPI and GDP, recovering at end of forecast horizon;
Manufacturing PMI
UK Government majority cut to 1 seat after defeat in by-election;
Construction PMI
CAD
GDP
AUD
Consolidating/
negative outlook
CPI
Retail Sales
NZD
ANZ Business Confidence
CNY
Manu and Non-Manu PMI
Caixin Manu PMI
Equities
At highs
Gold
Oil
Choppy
API Inventories:
-6.0m vs -2.6m
EIA Inventories:
-8.5m vs-2.5m
Oil drops 6% on Trump’s tariffs tweet.

9. Week 31 Review
Not a hint of risk-on sentiment all week. Trump threatens a reciprocal tax on Macron’s tech tax; US/China trade talks collapse; Trump announces more tariffs on Chinese exports to the US; North Korea tests more missiles for the second time in the week. Equities drop all over the world. Oil falls by 6% on Thursday. GOLD rises over the week.
The Fed managed a hawkish rate cut on Wednesday, not something you see every day. The USD rises over the week.
In the UK, PM Johnson refuses to meet the EU unless they remove the backstop. The government’s majority is cut to one after losing a by-election on Thursday. The GBP continues its decline.
Risk-off sentiment pushes the AUD and NZD down further and the JPY rises on safe-haven flows.

10. 32 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 5/8/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
China stops US agriculture imports
USDCNY breaks through 7.0
More NK missile tests
US labels China a currency manipulator
Risk
Off
Tentative
Themes
Strong JPY, equities pullbacks, GOLD (long on weak USD, risk-off)
USD
Near 2 yr + highs
ISM Non-Manu PMI
EUR
Down trend broken
JPY
Breakout up
GBP
Down trend
Services PMI
GDP;
Manufacturing Production
CAD
Breakout down
Holiday
(Un)employment
AUD
Consolidating/
negative outlook
Cash Rate,
Statement – RBA prepared to wait to achieve inflation target (seen as hawkish, i.e. no immediate need for further cuts)
RBA Gov Lowe;
Monetary Policy Statement
NZD
Cash Rate: 50bs cut, 25bp expected. Gov Orr refuses to rule out more.
CNY
CPI
Equities
Pulling back
Gold
Oil
Rangebound
API Inventories:
-3.4m vs -2.8m
EIA Inventories:
+2.4m vs -2.9m