1. Risk Description: Bus Tapes
WBS
 6.2.1
Type
Threat
Risk ID
 RD
Status
 Active
Expires
 27-Apr-21
Title
 Bus tapes do not meet specification
Summary
The mechanical specifications of the bus tapes are based upon the past observation that a) tapes stretch in co-cure and b) delivered tapes are very uniform mechanically. If this is not the case in production we will need to lower the yield factor.
Owner
Carl Haber 
Probability
Pre
20%
Post
10%
Cost Lo
 $93K Hi
$280K
Schedule
 2.0 mo.
 6.0 mo.
Tech Impact
 1 (L)
Post Mitg Prob
 3 (L)
Impact Score
 2 (M)
Sched
Rank= 60
Mitigation
We will be monitoring and screening all cables which arrive in batches of So we are insured at the cost of one batch. The mechanical specs are part of the contract. Good resutls so far.
Response
We would need to re-run the offending batch of cables.
Comments
Exposed with only one vendor. Worst case cost impact is calculated as follows. Total cost of materials and inspection = 640K+460K=1.1M. Set the max cost to half of this.
Phase Affected
Pre-production, Production
US ATLAS HL-LHC CD-3a Review, July 9-11, 2019

2. Risk Description: Foam
WBS
 6.2.1
Type
Threat
Risk ID
 RD
Status
 Active
Expires
 27-Sep-21
Title
 Carbon foam is unavailable
Summary
Allcomp is only supplier of the very low density high TC foam. We would have to go to a somewhat higher mass material, with some performance implication, not a cost issue.
Owner
Carl Haber 
Probability
Pre
20%
Post
10%
Cost Lo
 $186K Hi
$560K
Schedule
 4.0 mo.
 12 mo.
Tech Impact
 1 (L)
Post Mitg Prob
 3 (L)
Impact Score
 3 (H)
Sched
Rank= 140
Mitigation
We will be monitoring the supplier Allcomp for continued availability of the low density foam throughout the project.
Response
We would move to a higher density carbon foam with expected decrease in overall performance.
Comments
Exposed with only one vendor. The total cost of the Allcomp foam material is 180K for all of ATLAS strips (half goes to the UK). We set the maximum cost impact to 200K as if we have to buy another entire set from someone else (unlikely)
Phase Affected
Pre-production, Production
US ATLAS HL-LHC CD-3a Review, July 9-11, 2019

3. Risk Description: Insulators
WBS
 6.2.1
Type
Threat
Risk ID
 RD
Status
 Active
Expires
 25-Sep-20
Title
 High volume, low cost electrical insulator breaks to be established
Summary
The cooling lines require an insulating break which must be very reliable. While these have been demonstrated in small quantities the production performance is still forthcoming.
Owner
 Carl Haber
Probability
Pre
20%
Post
10%
Cost Lo
 $23K Hi
$233K
Schedule
 0.5 mo.
 5.0 mo.
Tech Impact
 3 (H)
Post Mitg Prob
 3 (L)
Impact Score
 2 (M)
Sched
Rank= 60
Mitigation
We will continually monitor the production of larger quantities of insulators along with performance. We will also search for alternative suppliers or techniques.
Response
We would add personnel to make multiple batches of a small number of insulators to meet assembly demands.
Comments
Exposed with only one vendor. Worst case cost we have to re-engineer (70K) and delay stave lamination for 1 year (430K) =500K.
Phase Affected
Pre-production, Production
US ATLAS HL-LHC CD-3a Review, July 9-11, 2019

4. Risk Description: Cooling Loops
WBS
 6.2.1
Type
Threat
Risk ID
 RD
Status
 Active
Expires
 1-Sep-23
Title
 Cooling loops not available
Summary
The cooling loops are an external dependency from the UK. They could experience technical difficulties causing these to be delayed or not available at all.
Owner
Carl Haber 
Probability
Pre
20%
Post
Cost Lo
 $47K Hi
$420K
Schedule
 1.0 mo.
 9.0 mo.
Tech Impact
 3 (H)
Post Mitg Prob
 5 (M)
Impact Score
 2 (M)
Sched
Rank= 90
Mitigation
We will continually monitor the production of larger quantities of loops along with performance. We will also search for alternative suppliers or techniques.
Response
We would have to develop a US source for these loops.
Comments
UK Deliverable. Exposed with only one vendor. We set the worst case cost impact to develop a US source and delay in stave laminations of 9 months to $840K. Set the max cost to half of this.
Phase Affected
Pre-production, Production
US ATLAS HL-LHC CD-3a Review, July 9-11, 2019

5. Risk Description: Personnel
WBS
 6.2.1
Type
Threat
Risk ID
 RD
Status
 Active
Expires
 1-Sep-23
Title
 Loss of key personnel
Summary
Expert staff exist at Yale and LBNL. If we lost these we would have to hire and train replacements. All area long term already employed at their respective institutions.
Owner
Carl Haber 
Probability
Pre
10%
Post
Cost Lo
 $47K Hi
$280K
Schedule
 1.0 mo.
 6.0 mo
Tech Impact
 2 (M)
Post Mitg Prob
 3 (L)
Impact Score
Sched
Rank= 60
Mitigation
Cross-training and dissemination of information. Developing backup strategies.
Response
A position would be posted and a new hire made. In the interim the existing staff would assume additional responsibility.
Comments
These are long term employess of the institutions with a strong commitment to the project. Worst case scenario is a delay in stave core laminations by 6 months = $560K. Set the max cost to half of this.
Phase Affected
Pre-production, Production
US ATLAS HL-LHC CD-3a Review, July 9-11, 2019

6. Risk Description: Bus Tapes
WBS
 6.2.1
Type
 Threat
Risk ID
 RD
Status
 Active
Expires
 1-Jan-2023
Title
 Exposure Due to Single Bus Tape Vendor
Summary
While we have worked with a single vendor on the bus tape for ~10 years, we remain exposed in case of changes in technical capabilities, business model, etc
Owner
Carl Haber 
Probability
Pre
 25%
Post
 10%
Cost Lo
 $47K Hi
 $687K
Schedule
 .1
 4.0
Tech Impact
 2(M)
Post Mitg Prob
 3(L)
Impact Score
 3(H)
Sched
Rank=140
Mitigation
Search, find, and qualify a second vendor, well ahead of production. Be prepared to switch quickly if needed. An alternative would be to redesign the tape to be composed of two shorter sections. This would require that the EOS card be moved to mid-stave. This would affect the design of the assembly tooling for the cores and the EOS, which are non-US deliverables. 
Response
 If we have qualified a second vendor we will have them make a small number of parts to verify their capability, well ahead of production
Comments
 The overwhelming majority of vendors cannot manufacture the ATLAS bus tapes since they are longer than possible in these standard processes. Worst case scenario is a 4 month delay in stave core laminations = $373K. We set the max cost to half of this ($187K) plus an added procurement cost of $500K, for a max cost of $687K.
Phase Effected
Pre-production
US ATLAS HL-LHC CD-3a Review, July 9-11, 2019

7. CD-3A Drill Down: Bus Tapes
From BOE pg. 12, Table 11; Attachment 3
US provides bus tapes for 365 cores (US + UK)
Each core needs 2 bus tapes
Vendor cost is $598 / tape ($FY17)
Each core cost is $1196
Total for 365 cores is $436,540
From Drill Down Report
SC200474MM for $30,000
SC200475M for $407,000
Total $437,000
Jeff Ashenfelter
BNL Director's Review, May 15-17, 2019

8. CD-3A Drill Down: Pre-preg
From BOE pg. 12, Table 11; Attachment 4
US provides pre-preg for 138 cores (US + UK)
Each core needs m2 of pre-preg
Vendor cost is $303 / m2 ($FY17)
Each core cost is $556
Total for 138 cores is $76,728
From Drill Down Report
SC200510M for $37,800
SC200720M for $39,000
Total $76,800
Jeff Ashenfelter
BNL Director's Review, May 15-17, 2019

9. CD-3A Drill Down: Honeycomb
From BOE pg. 12, Table 11, Attachment 6
US provides honeycomb for 151 cores (US + UK)
Each core needs m2
Vendor cost is $7091 / m2 ($1787 in $FY17 for m2)
Each core cost is $984
Total for 151 cores is $148,584
From Drill Down Report
SC501204M for $149,000
Jeff Ashenfelter
BNL Director's Review, May 15-17, 2019

10. BNL Director's Review, May 15-17, 2019
CD-3A Drill Down: Foam
From BOE pg. 12, Table 11; Attachment 5
US provides foam for 147 cores (US + UK)
Each core needs 339 cc
Vendor cost is $0.997 / cc ($2352 in $FY17 for 2360 cc)
Each core cost is $338
Total for 147 cores is $49,686
From Drill Down Report
SC501210M for $49,816
Jeff Ashenfelter
BNL Director's Review, May 15-17, 2019