1. The Relationship between School District Poverty & FAFSA Completion (2016 – 2018)
Danielle Lowry
University of Pittsburgh
National Association of State Student Grant & Aid Programs
October 2018

2. Goal of Report Improving equity in college access
Low-income students are dependent on state and federal aid to make college affordable
Reducing socioeconomic gaps in college access requires reducing gaps in FAFSA completion
Examining district & state variation in FAFSA completion
Identify and target for improvement high poverty districts with low FAFSA completion
Identify districts and states completing FAFSA at high rate to study policies and programs that can be emulated

3. Report Summary Research process: Key findings:
Link district FAFSA filing rates to district poverty rates to examine the relationship between filing and poverty
Explore changes in FAFSA filing from 2016 to 2018
Key findings:
On average, higher poverty districts do not complete the FAFSA at same rate as lower poverty counterparts
FAFSA filing rates increased across the distribution of poverty from 2016 to 2017 and remained steady from 2017 to 2018
Gaps in filing between the wealthiest and the poorest districts did not change
Louisiana saw the largest improvement in FAFSA completion from 2017 to 2018
-Earlier FAFSA, prior-prior year tax information
-On average, for every 10 percentage point difference in the percent of children aged 5 to 17 living in poverty, the district FAFSA completion rate is 2.3 percentage points lower. This negative relationship has decreased by less than one percentage point from 2016 and 2017, which means we are seeing very little progress in decreasing FAFSA filing gaps between the nation’s poorest and wealthiest districts.
-In Louisiana, the average FAFSA completion rate increased by 13 percentage points.

4. Data 2016 US Census Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
June 2016, 2017, and 2018 US Department of Education FAFSA filing rates, by district
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Common Core of Data 2016 enrollment rates
Don’t want to dwell on technical details…
-SAIPE is calculated annually using data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to determine income levels and poverty rates among school-aged children

5. School District Poverty
Average of about 18%, ranges from min of 2 to high of 71%
Most poverty concentrated in the South
Percent

6. FAFSA Filing Rate TN LA Percent
In 2018, average of 57%, min of 20 to high of 80 (could be lower or higher but these are the bounds that US D of E reports)
Lower filing rates in higher poverty states, with the exception of Louisiana and Tennessee
Percent LA

7. Change in Filing from 2016 to 2017
-earlier FAFSA, prior-prior year tax information
-National increase of about 4 percentage points
-Utah had increase of 10 percentage points, but start off with lower FAFSA completion (more room for improvement)
-Among high poverty states, KY, LA, AL experienced substantial increases

8. Change in Filing from 2017 to 2018
-earlier FAFSA, prior-prior year tax information
-National increase of less than one percentage point
-Louisiana at 13, and Nevada at 8 percentage points
-19 states saw no improvement or a decrease in district-level filing
-The largest decrease of around 2-3 percentage points occurred in West Virginia and Wyoming, two states with FAFSA completion rates that are already below the national average.

9. Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty
Other states with similar trends AL CT IA ID IN KS LA MA MD
MEMI MO MS MT ND NH NJ NY OK OR PA SC SD TN VA VT WI WY
Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state
Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship, and curvature
-most common trend observed
-In these figures, each hollow circle corresponds to a single school district and the relative size of the circle corresponds to the number of students enrolled. The circles also represent the 2018 FAFSA completion rate for each district. The dashed blue line represents the relationship between poverty and FAFSA completion in 2016, while the dashed teal line represents this relationship in The relationship between district poverty and 2018 FAFSA completion is represented by the solid green line.
-On average, for every 10 percentage point difference in the percent of children aged 5 to 17 living in poverty, the district FAFSA completion rate is 2.3 percentage points lower.
Key for lines at the bottom

10. Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty
Other states with similar trends AZ VA
Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state
Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship, and curvature

11. Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty
Other states with similar trends CO FL IL NV TX UT WA WY
Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state
Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship (in 9 cases), and curvature
Strongest in WY (but they also do not have high rates of poverty) CA and UT, but UT’s FAFSA completion rates are some of the lowest in the nation

12. Modelling relationship between FAFSA completion & poverty
Other states with similar trends AK AR DE MN NC NE NM RI
Discuss regression briefly—modelling the relationship by state
Find: negative relationship, no clear relationship, positive relationship (in 9 cases), and curvature
Low and high pov districts are similar
Higher in highest and lowest income districts

13. FAFSA completion varies substantially across states
On average, in the United States, for every 10 percentage point difference in the share of children 5 to 17 living in poverty, we estimate that the school district FAFSA completion rate is approximately 2.6 percentage points lower
-sorted by highest poverty districts
Light blue diamond: 10%, Navy square: 90%, green circle: median
-Vertical separation shows gaps in filing
-Squared states have highest FAFSA completion among the highest poverty school districts in the nation—RI has small amount of districts—even in TN, wealthier districts out perform low income districts
Constant definitions for high and low income—levels of poverty rather than percentiles

14. FAFSA completion varies substantially across states
CA, MN, UT, also have consistently higher FAFSA completion among high poverty than low poverty districts
Narrow red bands

15. FAFSA completion varies substantially across states
The negative relationship for some states is greater than the national average—almost one for one
GA, IN, NJ, VT still doing well despite being “negative” –NJ and VT have higher than average median FAFSA completion

16. Gaps in filing between high and low poverty school districts
Green circles are 2018 gaps, blue diamonds are 2017 gaps, sorted by 2018 gaps
Dot above red line are gaps where wealthiest districts outperform lowest income districts
-not much change between 2017 and 2018—overall, no decreases in gaps
KEY—definition of poverty same across states

17. Gaps in filing between high and low poverty school districts
Green circles are 2018 gaps, blue diamonds are 2017 gaps, sorted by 2018 gaps
Dot above red line are gaps where wealthiest districts outperform lowest income districts
-not much change between 2017 and 2018—overall, no decreases in gaps

18. What’s next?
Increase FAFSA filing in states with low overall FAFSA completion
What’s happening in LA?
Decrease FAFSA filing gaps between high and low poverty districts
What’s happening in states like MD or TN?
Continue efforts to make FAFSA application easier to complete
Mobile FAFSA
Given all of this, where do we go next… what can we learn from districts , exceptions to rule in 2018 increase – what’s happening in LA?!

19. Thank you
Danielle Lowry