1. Base Case Behavior for 1990–2040
Access to and
Tobacco taxes and
Quality of primary
marketing of
sales/marketing
Anti-smoking
care provision
regulations
Access to and marketing
primary care
social marketing
of smoking quit products
and services
Sources of
stress
Smoking bans at
0.3
work and public
Access to and
Stress
Prevalence 1
Use of Primary Care Services
places
marketing of mental
0.3
Smoking
Prevalence
health services
0.6
Secondhand
Smoke Exposure 30
Particulate Air Pollution
PM2.5
Diagnosis
mcg per m3
and control
1.5
CV event
fatality multiplier
Uncontrolled
Access to and
Section #7, Kris
Eventual death of older cohorts being replaced b younger cohorts
lower rate of smoking among teens now than before
more obesity in younger cohort now will develop into diabetes and high BP
Not only that, but there are more of the younger cohorts now, as they become more elderly
they will smoke even less
they will contribute to growth in diabetes and high BP
Chronic Disorders
marketing of healthy
food options
0.8
Prevalences
0.6
Poor Diet
Fraction
High cholesterol 4
0.4
Obesity
Prevalence
CVD
Deaths per 1000
Junk food taxes and
0.3
sales/marketing
High BP
regulations
Diabetes
Age 65+ fraction
of the population
0.8
3,000
Inadequate
Physical Activity
CVD & Risk factor
costs per capita
Access to and
Access to and
marketing of weight
marketing of physical
loss services
activity options
K. Wile Austin, TX 5/28/2008