1. Scenario Framework for the Gas Network Development Plan 2020-2030
Modelling variants
Holger Sippel, GASCADE

2. Agenda Overview of modelling process Overview of modelling variants
Input variables
Distribution system operators
Storage facilities
Power plants
LNG plants
Industry
Cross-border interconnection points
Biomethane
Power-to-gas and synthetic methane
Development of L-gas supplies
Development of H-gas supplies

3. Overview of modelling process
Eingangsgrößen – Input variables
L-Gas-Versorgung – L-gas supply
Leistungsbilanz – Capacity balance L-H-Gasumstellung – L-to-H-gas conversion
H-Gas-Versorgung – H-gas supply
Leistungsbilanz – Capacity balance
Quellenverteilung – Distribution of gas sources
Aufteilung Zusatzbedarf – Allocation of additional demand
Netzmodellierung – Network modelling
Lastflusssimulation – Load flow simulation
Netzausbaubedarf – Required network expansion

4. Overview of modelling variants
Source: transmission system operators

5. Distribution system operators (DSOs)
Basic approach:
Starting point: internal orders for the year 2020
Long-term DSO forecasts taken into account (gas demand scenarios are thus not directly taken into account)
Development according to the DSOs’ 10-year forecast (checked for plausibility) pursuant to sec. 16 of the Cooperation Agreement up until 2025, thereafter constant
Plausibility check:
If the forecast value for 2025 is higher than the order value for 2020, the DSO must provide an acceptable explanation.
The assumptions underlying the long-term forecast provided by the DSOs (assumed sectoral developments including acceptable explanations) are used for the plausibility check
Additional capacity requirements are to be comprehensibly justified by the DSOs

6. Storage facilities Existing storage facilities:
Taken into account according to the "2020 – SF Consultation“ database cycle
New storage facilities:
New storage facilities / extensions pursuant to sec. 38, 39 GasNZV are treated as TaC at 100 % of the requested capacity if the criteria defined in the SF 2020 consultation document are met

7. Power plants Existing power plants: New power plants:
Taken into account according to the "2020 – SF Consultation“ database cycle
Directly connected system-relevant gas-fired power plants are taken into account as firm capacities because none of them is expressly mentioned in the BNetzA's decommissioning list
New power plants:
New power plants/extensions according to sec. 38, 39 GasNZV are treated as fDZK (“firm dynamically allocable capacities”) at 100 % of the requested capacity if the criteria defined in the SF 2020 consultation document are met.
Depending on the special network equipment to be taken into account for the relevant criteria in the draft document of the scenario framework for the Gas NDP , the gas TSOs will implement the cluster approach on the basis of this procedure
Newbuild power plants in southern Germany, taking into account the need for new grid stability assets of some 1.2 GWe (cluster approach)

8. LNG plants Existing plants: New LNG plants: N/A
New LNG terminals/extensions according to sec. 38, 39 GasNZV are treated as competing capacity at 100 % of the requested capacity level if the criteria defined in the SF 2020 consultation document are met (at present with suitable entry points in the GUD or OGE networks)
LNG terminal in Brunsbüttel: taken into account
LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven: decision still pending

9. Industry, cross-border IPs, biomethane
Capacities taken into account: Current level of capacity requirements and binding additional requirements considered as FAC (freely allocable capacity)
Cross-border IPs:
Existing IPs: Taken into account according to "2020 – SF Consultation“ database cycle
Development: especially as per incremental capacity and distribution of H-gas sources
Presentation: Existing VIPs shown in document and database
Biomethane:
Capacities taken into account:
Capacities taken into account according to "2020 – SF Consultation“ database cycle
Results of the market partner survey for green gas projects to be supplemented for the publication of the draft scenario framework 2020

10. Power-to-gas (PtG), synthetic methane
Modelling year 2025:
Existing plants will continue to be taken into account
Projects clearly intended to be implemented according to market partner survey and projects scheduled to be implemented by 2025 will be taken into account after review and plausibility check.
Results of the market partner survey for green gas projects to be supplemented for the publication of the draft scenario framework 2020

11. Power-to-gas (PtG), synthetic methane
Modelling year 2030:
Existing assets will continue to be taken into account
Projects clearly intended to be implemented according to the market partner survey and projects scheduled to be implemented by 2030 will be considered after review and plausibility check.
Results of the market partner survey for green gas projects to be supplemented for the publication of the draft scenario framework 2020
In order to achieve 7.5 GWe of PtG generation capacity, further potential generation sites will be identified and considered on the basis of the FfE study and the confirmed SF for the Electricity Network Development Plan
Factors taken into account: centres of hydrogen consumption, TSO infrastructure, potential PtG sites in 2030
PtG production sites that cannot be connected to centres of hydrogen consumption will be taken into account as assets offering grid support capabilities and as demand- based feed-in points for hydrogen or synthetic methane

12. Development of L-gas supplies
Gas NDP outlook:
Determine and present L-gas capacity and quantity balance for the next few years, taking account of local conditions up until 2030.
Continue development of the conversion plans presented in the 2019 Implementation Report and of the L/H-gas conversion area overview
Adjust conversion areas as required to ensure optimum utilisation of resources
Take account of the DSOs’ current detailed plans
Take account of the number of gas appliances to be switched to H-gas per year
Identify concrete expansion measures to secure supply
Continue talks on the conversion of gas storage facilities
Take account of the remaining L-gas market and the required structuring instruments
Note: Changes to the conversion plans agreed between the DSOs and the TSOs by 1 October 2019 can be taken into account for the Gas NDP

13. Development of H-gas supplies
Gas NDP outlook :
Explain how entry capacities will be taken into consideration (cross-border IPs, storage facilities, conversion, production)
The main assumptions here are that cross-border IPs are generally taken into account as part of the technically available capacities and that storage facilities are used for seasonal balancing purposes, with gas withdrawals and storage levels of 35% assumed in peak load situations
Provide breakdown of exit capacities by demand groups (power plants, industry, DSOs, cross-border IPs)
Determine and present H-gas capacity balance up until 2030
Determine the additional demand on the basis of the H-gas capacity balance
Allocate the additional demand and explain the procedure as per the H-gas source distribution to individual cross-border IPs
Develop network model with due consideration for fluid mechanics and NewCap requirements to be able to weigh up network expansion against MBI costs

14. Thank you for your attention
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