1. Climate Change Leadership
Results-based
Climate Change Leadership
Where are we going from here?
Julius Nyangaga
Right Track Africa

2. Projects start with a Theory of Change
What is a Theory of Change?
Problem
Intervention
Change

3. Projects start with a Theory of Change
What is a Theory of Change?

4. Projects start with a Theory of Change
What is a Theory of Change?
A famous ToC cartoon by Sidney Harris

5. Projects start with a Theory of Change
What is a Theory of Change?

6. Projects start with a Theory of Change
What is a Theory of Change?
A comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context.
Defining all of the necessary and sufficient conditions required to bring about a given long term outcome
Long term goal
Outcome B
Pre-outcome A1
Pre-outcome A2
Outcome A
Source: Centre of Theory of Change (Theory of Change Community)

7. Projects start with a Theory of Change
What is a Theory of Change?
Pre-outcome A2
Pre-outcome A11
Outputs for A11
Pre-outcome A1
Outcome A
Pre-outcome B11
Pre-outcome B1
Outputs for B11
Outcome B
Pre-outcome B21
Long term goal
Outputs for B21
Pre-outcome B22
Pre-outcome B2
Outputs for B22
Outcome C
Pre-outcome C11
Pre-outcome C1
Outputs for C11
Pre-outcome C2
Outputs for C21
Pre-outcome C21

8. Theory of Change Determines Project Intervention
Pre-outcome A2
Pre-outcome A11
Pre-outcome B22
Long term goal
Outcome A
Outcome B
Outcome C
Pre-outcome B1
Pre-outcome B2
Pre-outcome C1
Pre-outcome B11
Pre-outcome B21
Pre-outcome C11
Outputs for B11
Outputs for B21
Outputs for B22
Outputs for A11
Pre-outcome A1
Outputs for C11
Pre-outcome C2
Outputs for C21
Pre-outcome C21

9. Theory of Change Determines Project Intervention
What are YOUR Climate Change project goals and objectives?
knowledge?

10. Theory of Change Determines Project Intervention
What are YOUR Climate Change project goals and objectives?
tools?
module

11. Theory of Change Determines Project Intervention
What are YOUR Climate Change project goals and objectives?
practices?

12. Theory of Change Determines Project Intervention
What are YOUR Climate Change project goals and objectives?
systems?

13. The project intervention presents the target Results Framework
Ann-Murray Brown... accessed at Tools4Dev change-vs-logical-framework-whats-the-difference-in-practice/

14. Essential Elements of a Results Framework
Definition, Explanation
Example(s)
Goal, Impact
Human and environmental well being
For human: food security, health and wealth wellbeing
For the environment: protection, improvement
To reduce incidents of famine or disease
To increase food yields
To increase household income
Increase forest cover
Purpose, Objective
To contribute to the goal, the particular goal, the project aims to achieve.
Is specific on scope – geographical (location), time, and level of change
Increase harvest of maize by 20% in the XX district by Year 3 by the introduction of new varieties
Reduce incidences of malaria from 3 to 5/year/location
Increase forest cover in XX valley from 2 to 4% by Yr 4

15. Essential Elements of a Results Framework
Definition, Explanation
Example(s)
Outcome
What or Who the project will influence to achieve the purpose or objective
Evidence of the outcome (behavioural or system change + resulting magnitude of the outcome change)
Communities access information service. No.s, %s, where, when.
Government posts trainer, establish rule. Names, numbers.
Community and CC institutions sign agreement. Document.
Farm HHs adopt the new maize variety; volume of “input” up (from 10 to 15 tons/ha/yr)
Output
‘What do we do, produce? ... to achieve the outcomes
Products to be delivered by the project
Research knowledge: paper, report, policy brief
Climate change information tool or service in place
Capacity and awareness forums
Informed members per community

16. Essential Elements of a Results Framework
Definition, Explanation
Example(s)
Indicators
(Parameter measures)
Evidence to be used for outcomes observed and outputs delivered
For each result: the indicator and the data to be used to demonstrate change
No. of farmers, HHs adopting technology
Area of land
Volume of yields, level of pollutant
Presence of institutional reform agreement, policy/regulation
Source, Means of verification (MoVs)
Source of information of indicator change (data collection methods).
Physical observation, counting (numbers), surveys, interviews
Reports review
Baseline (status)
The level of the indicators (usually outcomes) at the time the project begins
Assumptions
Conditions necessary for outputs to deliver outcome, outcome to serve project purpose

17. Results Framework Template to be used
Indicator(s)
Means of verification (data source)
Assump-tions
Baseline level
Targets (by Year, Quarter, OR month)
Project goal (objective):
- xxx
Project outcomes
What change(s)?
Project output(s)
What product(s)?
Project activities
research
training
awareness forums
brokering views
advocacy

18. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Consider the Core CC leadership requirements from the Nganga (2019) report:
(Quoting Meijerink & Stiller (2013)):
Political Administrative Function
Connective Function
Adaptive Function
Enabling Function
Dissemination Function

19. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Recommended Leadership Skills:
Based on experiences and lessons from various R&D and CC programs:
System definition and promotion
Regular definition and description of the CC system being addressed or supported.
Promoting engagement and encouraging support
Internally project members see roles and value of team-work.
Externally to recruit more members, missing capacity and resources.

20. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Recommended Leadership Skills:
System Administration and Management
Resource (financial) budgeting and management.
Reporting to resource providers (donors) or whole platform on system progress

21. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Recommended Leadership Skills:
Visioning, Scoping and Strategic networking
Defining and describing the direction of aspiration from the current status.
Can be for the whole system or for specific functions or CC actors.

22. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Recommended Leadership Skills:
Financing, Linking, Mediation and Brokering
Resource mobilization
Stimulating and assisting processes between interacting actors.
Mediation in response to potential or actual conflict between system members
Addressing concerns
Developing trust and understanding.

23. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Recommended Leadership Skills:
Capacity Building, Technical backstopping
Providing technical advise. OR … Linking actors to thematic specialists.
Carrying out research and providing timely feedback
Technical themes.
Capacity in multi-stakeholder interactions, group dynamics and management

24. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Recommended Leadership Skills:
Advocacy and Championing
Influencing policy makers for the necessary policy reform.
Motivating stakeholders within the system and/or from those outside.
Catalyzing interactions to keep the businesses active.
Encouraging all actors to join and stay with the CC system managed.

25. Interventions require effective and strategic leadership
Recommended Leadership Skills:
Monitoring, Evaluation, Documentation and Learning
What has worked? What has not? Why or why not?
… case studies; using success stories to motivate and build support.
What should be done differently to continuously improve performance?
Lessons for innovation diffusion.
Policy change blog

26. end

27. Results Framework Individual and Group Work
Indicator(s)
Means of verification (data source)
Assump-tions
Baseline level
Targets (by Year, Quarter, OR month)
Project goal (objective):
- xxx
Project outcomes
What change(s)?
xxx
Project output(s)
What product(s)?
Project activities
Not just how high up the results chain
(“AUDACITY vs ACCOUNTABILIY”) …
But
TO WHAT LEVEL? …
from baseline…