1. Forecast Verification time!
Senor Perfect Forecast 81 87 … ….

2. 4 pm = 2

3. Radar at 5:30 pm
SPC storm reports

4. DAY 4
DAY 4

5. FINAL
SCORES
ADVANCED
CAMP

6. Springtime tornadoes have been above average for the majority of the current decade: T or F?
Data show Springtime tornados are more prevalent this decade than the previous one
The average number of Spring tornadoes has risen 16% this decade, increasing from an average of 558 ( ) to 646.
The average number of Spring tornado reports has risen 16% this decade, increasing from an average of 558 reports ( ) to 646
(119)
(600)
(396)
(205)
Spring last decade (since 2011)
Years above average: 4
Years below average: 6
Spring this decade (since 2011)
Years above average: 4
Years below average: 5
(1,287)
Climate Science News

7. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Increase instability
Troposphere
Make it colder aloft - ?
Measures of:
Lifted Index (LI)
CAPE
Make it warmer near surface – How ?

8. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Low-level moisture
Measured by:
Dew Point
- Minimally 60+
- Preferably 70+
Moist air advection
WARM
WATER

9. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Upper level support JS JS JS
Noted by:
500mb pattern
- Trough in flow
- Well-defined vorticity max, X
WARM
WATER

10. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Da Winds …
Speed sheer
Directional sheer

11. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:JS JS JS
Sheer
Noted by:
500mb pattern
- Trough in flow
- Well-defined vorticity max, X
WARM
WATER

13. Thunderstorm ingredients:
Surface pressure
500 mb - aloft L X
Warm/moist
700 mb – Relative humidity

15. L
SPC Storm Archive

16. Cyclogenesis – How storms form

17. Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

18. Surface Weather Maps H

19. 500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS)
This Afternoon L x H H

20. 500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS)
This Afternoon L L H H

22. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map EWALL - Soundings

25. RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation
- Varies between?
- If in a cloud ….. RH = ?
Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v)
T = 85
D = 65
RH = 51%
How can we make a cloud?
RH Calculator