1. Are public transport systems influencing spatial change?
Presentation at session: public transport and spatial transformation
South African transport conference
08 July 2019

2. Background
Yet another piece of the puzzle - are public transport systems influencing spatial change in South Africa?
Work in progress paper chronicles my experiences in a 5 year program of leading the public transport pillar in a program of explicit spatial transformation at the Cities Support Program.
Transport was one of a number of “pieces of the puzzle” within the program aimed at changing urban space.

3. Structure 1. Then Theory of Change for the CSP 2. Engaging the Sector
3. Some important conclusions

4. Theory of Change Absence of the “urban dividend” from SA city growth
Challenges in city governance, service delivery and spatial form deepen economic challenges in cities, and result in growing risks
Targeted interventions on: governance, fiscal and financial reform and policy: lead to compaction, equitable urban growth and poverty alleviation.

5. Public transport manifests the problem powerfully …
Raskin (2017)

6. Public transport manifests the problem powerfully …
Raskin (2017)

7. Public transport manifests the problem powerfully …
Raskin (2017)

8. Public transport manifests the problem powerfully …
TRANSMILENIO (BOGOTA, COLOMBIA)
REA VAYA (JOHANNESBURG, SA)- Data 2014
METROLINEA (BUCARAMANGA, COLOMBIA)
Raskin (2017)

9. 1. Then Theory of Change for the CSP
2. Engaging the Sector
3. Some important conclusions

10. 1. First things first: immediate challenges
PTNG framework changes with requirement of ‘fiscally and financially sustainable’ IPTNs
Municipalities demonstrate sufficient local capacity to implement and operate
Formula allocation based on demand - disincentivise “going large”
Incentive scheme for allocation
Broaden range of transport services to be supported by the funding beyond BRT systems
“revealed patterns of expenditure on inappropriate and fiscally unsustainable transport systems”

11. Intense work with cities and national department on planning and budget process
Created a guideline for IPTN formulation
Requiring multiyear financial plan formulation (MYFIN)
A series of toolkits for plan and budget analysis and grant allocation
Subject Matter Expert appointment

12. Example of multiyear plan template
Presentation of revised 2018/19 PTNG template
Complete the Appendix 2 Multi-year Financial Plan in detail in the supplied spreadsheet.
DO NOT alter the spreadsheet in any way by reformatting cells, adding / subtracting rows or changing/over-writing formulas. If the template is altered in any way, it will be returned and will have to be re-submitted.
Please insert a pdf version of the final spreadsheet in the following pages of this report. This will serve as a hard copy record of the numbers in case the spreadsheet becomes corrupted.

13. Example of assessment toolkits for performance

14. Example of city assessments …

15. Additional areas of expenditure inefficiency work
High costs in various areas of implementation – work with cities on station management, ITS, bus operations
Inefficient fiscal allocation - modal/governmental spheres - (PTOG, PTNG, PRASA, TRP & roads): resulted in now ongoing public transport finance policy process being driven by the NDoT
Stalled devolution process – efforts towards practical integration of various transport through IPTN
Failing rail system.

16. 2. Spatial targeting through the BEPP
The Built Environment Performance Plan (BEPP)
Targeting and prioritising catalytic infrastructure investment
Fiscal alignment & integration with other key sectors (housing, economic development, transport)
Harnessing private sector funding through project preparation
Explicitly measuring it.

17. IPTNs largely aligned with other catalytic investment …
Comprehensive Assessment of 13 city IPTNS & Spatial Strategies
IPTN city analysis showed a broad alignment with the catalytic projects
Modelling was aligned to the SDF
IPTNs use the long-range spatial scenario, as embedded in the SDF, to very broadly drive public transport action

18. Challenge of project preparation for the catalytic projects
Intergovernmental project alignment and capital funding for projects was getting better
Identifying projects to be delivered within the space by other government institutions
Alignment of funding streams
Main challenge was obtaining private sector funding
To achieve real scale required funding outside government
Well prepared bankeable projects were always a challenge despite availability of project preparation funding

19. Assessing outcomes was a challenge
Influences of transport investment not tested & spatial effects not measured
Exceptions: Cape Town sophisticated modelling - various land use end states for public transport
Developed a series of simple outcome indicators
Impact
Integrated Outcomes
Functional Outcomes
Functional Outputs
Functional Activities
Functional Inputs
Costs
Reporting Reform Project
Cities reporting on 2572 Indicators
Current Emphasis at bottom

20. 1. Then Theory of Change for the CSP
2. Engaging the Sector
3. Some important conclusions

21. Important conclusions
Sectoral implementation issues trump spatial change – both at national and city level
It is currently ultimately about rewarding delivery
Capacitated cities that control transport (and built environment functions) are best placed
Devolution & city subsidiarity – levers and instruments to create change
Using the full spectrum of public transport investment is the big challenge
Potential of PRASA

22. Important conclusions
We do not have enough experience in understanding influences of transport investment in space
Interesting and emerging work SACN, CSIR etc
Influences of fiscal system – big question of the car and road building
Current public transport finance policy process at NDOT?
No one is dedicated to holding the center in terms of long term spatial change
New IUDF CoGTA focus
Achieving scale – how do we get greater buy in from private sector

23. Michael Kihato michael.kihato@planninghub.org