1. Thursday Morning: Decision Making
Part 1. Simulating Consumer Decisions
Price Effects: simulating the consumption of Widgets (Demand Curve)
Multiple Effects: simulating vehicle market shares (Multinomial Logit function)
What is the best way to help the CLIENT arrive at a useful POLICY?
Familiar method: we calculate the best policy, tell the client what to do, and, time permitting, publish a paper.
A more productive method: Client’s Time Permitting, engage the clients in a role-playing exercise, allowing them to arrive at good policies.
Part 2. Helping Our Clients’ Decision Making

3. Using a Smooth function for the Lagged Effect
In many studies, the Lag for the price effect gets far less attention than the Demand Curve or the Price Elasticity of Demand
But we should include the lag in System Dynamics models, and we have the tools to do so.
Effective Price = SMOOTH3I(Product Price, Lag for price effect ,50 )

4. Different options for the Smooth function

5. Vehicle Choice with multiple attributes
Five types of Vehicles
Six Vehicle Attributes
Conventional Gasoline cars
Electric Cars
Hybrid Electric Cars
Compressed Natural Gas cars
Cars fueled with methanol
Purchase Price
Fuel Cost
Range
Horse power
Fuel Availability
Emissions Fraction