1. Planning for Risk, Procurements, and Stakeholder Management
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan for Risk Response
Plan Project Procurements
Plan Stakeholder Management

2. Plan Risk Management
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 313

3. Risk
Risk is an uncertain event that may have either a positive or negative effect on the project.
Risk attitude is influenced by:
Risk appetite
Risk tolerance
Risk threshold

4. What Is Project Risk Management?
Includes conducting risk management planning, identification, and analysis; risk response planning; and controlling risk on a project.

5. The Risk Management Plan
Methodology
Roles and responsibilities
Budget
Timeline
Risk categories
Definition of risk probability and impact
Probability and impact matrix
Revised stakeholders’ tolerances
Reporting formats
Tracking documents

6. RBS

7. The Plan Risk Management Process
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 313

8. Plan Risk Management Inputs
Project management plan
Project charter
Stakeholder register
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets

9. Plan Risk Management Tools and Techniques
Analytical techniques
Expert judgment
Meetings

10. Plan Risk Management Outputs
Risk management plan

11. Guidelines to Develop a Risk Management Plan
Review the project management plan for all approved subsidiary plans of the project management plan and all baselines.
Review the project charter for the high-level risks, high-level project descriptions, and high-level requirements.
Review the stakeholder register for an overview of each stakeholder’s role on the project.
Review any pertinent enterprise environmental factors.
Review the organizational process assets, such as risk categories.
Use tools and techniques, such as expert judgment.
Use analytical techniques, such as stakeholder risk profile analysis or strategic risk scoring sheets.
Hold meetings with selected team members and stakeholders to develop the risk management plan.
Document the risk management plan for the project.

12. Identify Risks
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 320

13. Project Risks
Uncertain events that may or may not occur within a project
Can have either a positive or negative effect on a project
Positive risks are opportunities

14. Triggers Early warning signs or indications that a risk may occur
Can come from external sources or can be internal organizational events
Have both negative and positive effects on a project

15. The Identify Risks Process
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 319

16. Identify Risks Inputs Risk management plan Cost management plan
Schedule management plan
Quality management plan (output of 8.1)
Human resource management plan (output of 9.1)
Scope baseline
Activity cost estimates (output of 7.2)
Activity duration estimates (output of 6.5)
Stakeholder register
Project documents
Procurement documents
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets

17. Identify Risks Tools and Techniques
Documentation reviews
Information gathering techniques
Checklist analysis
Assumptions analysis
Diagramming techniques
SWOT analysis

18. Information Gathering Techniques
Brainstorming
Delphi technique
Interviewing
Root cause analysis

19. Checklist Analysis
Involves reviewing and analyzing previous project documents and checklists
Checklists are generally created from historical information, knowledge, and lessons learned from previous projects

20. Diagramming Techniques
Cause and effect
System or process flowcharts
Influence diagrams

21. SWOT Analysis

22. Identify Risks Outputs
Risk register

23. Sample Risk Register ID Risk Consequence Likelihood Rating Current
Target
Level of Risk 1
Loss of IT (data)
Major
Insignificant
Moderate
Unlikely
Extreme 2
Loss of precinct
Minor
Rare
High 3
Loss of building 4
Denial of access to building 5
Loss of key dependencies 6
Loss of vital records 7
Loss of key staff
Low 8
Loss of IT (voice)

24. Guidelines to Identify Risk
Perform a structured review of appropriate documentation from other planning processes with key project stakeholders to ensure an understanding of each.
Use one or more risk identification techniques to identify risks and their possible triggers.
Be consistent. Whatever method you adopt, apply it systematically across your project. Before the project begins, identify risks in every project segment and work package.
Apply your method consistently, but be on the lookout for special circumstances that might arise in any project segment.
Consult relevant historical information, such as risk response plans and final reports from previous, similar projects that may include lessons learned describing problems and their resolutions.
Once risks have been identified, group them into categories that reflect common sources of risk for your industry or application area.
Use the results of your analysis to initiate the risk register.

25. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 328

26. Qualitative Risk Analysis
Determines the probability of occurrence and the impact of identified risk
Determines the risk exposure of the project by multiplying the probability and impact
Provides the list of prioritized risks for further actions

27. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Process
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 328

28. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Inputs
Risk management plan
Scope baseline
Risk register
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets

29. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Tools and Techniques
Risk probability and impact assessment
Probability and impact matrix
Risk data quality assessment
Risk categorization
Risk urgency assessment
Expert judgment

30. Probability and Impact Matrix
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 331

31. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Outputs
Project document updates

32. Guidelines to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Review the risk management plan.
Review the scope baseline.
Examine the list of identified risks.
Analyze the data available for each risk to assign a data precision ranking score.
Determine the organization’s risk threshold for this project.
Analyze the assumptions identified during risk identification as potential risks against the validity of the assumption and the impact on the project if false.
Analyze the probability and impact of each identified risk by using well-defined probability and impact scales.
Determine the risk factor scores by using a probability and impact risk matrix.
Prioritize the risks according to the risk management plan.
Update the risk register and other project documents for the project.

33. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 334

34. Quantitative Risk Analysis
Used to assess the risk exposure events to overall project objectives
Determines the confidence levels of achieving the project objectives
Helps to identify time and cost contingencies of a project
Refines and enhances the prioritization and scoring of risks

35. The Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Process
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 334

36. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Inputs
Risk management plan
Cost management plan
Schedule management plan
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets

37. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools and Techniques
Data gathering and representation techniques
Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques
Expert judgment

38. Data Gathering and Representation Techniques
Interviewing
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 336

39. Data Gathering and Representation Techniques (Cont.)
Probability Distributions
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 337

40. Project Risk Ranking Ranking for producing the final deliverable
Allows for comparisons among other projects
Can assist in project initiation
Assists with budget and resource allocation, and other decisions.

41. Basics of Probability Sum of probabilities Probability of single event
Dependent joint events
Independent joint events
Mean
Median
Average
Standard deviation

42. Quantitative Analysis Methods
Sensitivity analysis
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
Modeling and simulation

43. Sample Tornado Diagram
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 338

44. Monte Carlo Analysis
Used to make predictions about the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates for variables in the model
Simulates various outcomes of the project schedule
Provides a statistical distribution of the calculated results

45. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Outputs
Project documents updates:
Probabilistic analysis
Probability of achieving cost and time objectives
Prioritized list of quantified risks
Trends in quantitative risk analysis results

46. Guidelines to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Begin with your original estimate of time or cost.
Determine the variable that you wish to investigate and identify its likely range of variation.
Calculate and assess the impact of changing the range of results on the overall project estimate for each value in the range.
Consult historical information.
Use the appropriate interviewing technique and obtain probability distributions.
Depict the distributions in a PDF.
Perform a sensitivity analysis.
Conduct a project simulation by using a model.

47. Plan for Risk Response
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 342

48. Plan Risk Responses Process
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 342

49. Plan Risk Responses Inputs
Risk management plan
Risk register

50. Plan Risk Responses Tools and Techniques
Strategies for negative risks or threats
Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
Contingent response strategies
Expert judgment

51. Negative Risks Strategies (Threats)
Avoid
Transfer
Mitigate
Accept

52. Positive Risk Strategies (Opportunities)
Exploit
Enhance
Share
Accept

53. Contingency Plans
A risk response strategy developed in advance, before things go wrong; it is meant to be used if and when identified risks become reality.
Allows a project manager to react quickly and appropriately to the risk event, mitigating its negative impact or increasing its potential benefits.
May include a fallback plan for risks with high impact.

54. Plan Risk Responses Outputs
Project management plan updates
Project documents updates

55. Project Management Plan Updates
Updates can include:
Schedule management plan
Cost management plan
Quality management plan
Procurement management plan
Human resource management plan
Scope, schedule, and cost baselines

56. Guidelines to Plan Risk Responses
Examine each identified risk to determine its causes and how it may affect project objectives. Brainstorm possible strategies for each risk.
Choose the response strategy that is most likely to be effective for each identified risk.
If you are unable to bring a risk’s rating below the organization’s risk threshold, ask your sponsor for help.
Identify backup strategies for risks with high risk factor scores.
Determine the amount of contingency reserves necessary to deal with accepted risks.
Determine how much of a contingency reserve you should set aside for unknown risks.
Consult the risk management plan for the description of the content and format of the risk response plan.
Incorporate the risk response plan into the overall project plan so the strategies can be implemented and monitored.

57. Plan Project Procurements
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 359

58. What Is a Procurement Management Plan?
Outlines the specifications for procuring work from outside sources
Specifies the types of contracts that will be used
Describes the process for obtaining and evaluating bids
Mandates the standardized procurement documents that must be used
Describes how multiple providers will be managed

59. The Plan Procurement Management Process
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 358

60. Plan Procurement Management Inputs
Project management plan
Requirements documentation
Risk register
Activity resource requirements
Project schedule
Activity cost estimates
Stakeholder register
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets

61. Contracts
Mutually binding agreements that detail the obligations of both parties in terms of procuring work.
Customized for each agreement.
Contract types:
Fixed-price
Cost-reimbursable
Time-and-material (T&M)
Example: A fixed-price contract used by the project team procuring the manufacturing unit for its new line of footwear

62. Plan Procurement Management Tools and Techniques
Make-or-buy analysis
Expert judgment
Market research
Meetings

63. Make-or-Buy Analysis
A technique used to determine whether it is more cost-effective to produce a product or service in-house or to procure it from an outside seller.
Impacts project time, cost, and quality.
Consider if a product needs to be purchased, leased, or rented, in case of a buy decision.

64. Plan Procurement Management Outputs
Procurements management plan
Procurement statement of work
Procurement documents
Source selection criteria
Make-or-buy decisions
Change requests
Project documents updates

65. Procurement SOW

66. Procurement Documents
Documents that are submitted to prospective sellers and service providers to solicit their proposals for the work needed
Document type used will depend on the type of project and the product or service being procured
Types include:
RFI
IFB
RFP
RFQ
Invitation for Negotiation

67. Source Selection Criteria
Overall or life-cycle cost
Understanding of need
Technical capability
Management approach
Technical approach
Warranty
Financial capacity
Production capacity and interest
Business size and type
Past performance of sellers
References
Intellectual property rights
Proprietary rights

68. Guidelines to Develop a Procurement Management Plan
Identify the project needs that can be fulfilled by acquiring products, services, or results.
Study the various plan procurement input documents to determine information related to the procurement requirements.
Consult technical experts to define specifications for the project needs clearly, concisely, and completely.
Perform a make-or-buy analysis to determine whether particular work can be accomplished by the project team or must be procured from outside the organization.
Determine the contract types to be used for the specific procurement needs of the project.
Document the plan procurement information you have identified so far in the procurement management plan.
After the procurement management plan is created, you will also generate other relevant plan procurement outputs.

69. Plan Stakeholder Management
Alex – please recreate
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 399

70. What Is a Stakeholder Management Plan?
Subsidiary plan of the project management plan
Defines the processes, procedures, tools, and techniques to effectively engage stakeholders in project decisions and execution
Identifies the management strategies required to effectively engage stakeholders

71. Contents of the Stakeholder Management Plan
Desired and current engagement level of key stakeholders
Scope and impact of change to stakeholders
Identified interrelationships and potential overlap between stakeholders
Stakeholder communication requirements
Information to be distributed to stakeholders
Reason for the distribution of that information and the expected impact to stakeholder engagement
Timeframe and frequency for the distribution of required information
Method for updating and refining the stakeholder management plan

72. The Plan Stakeholder Management Process
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 399

73. Stakeholder Management Inputs
Project management plan
Stakeholder register
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets

74. Stakeholder Management Tools and Techniques
Expert judgment
Meetings
Analytical techniques

75. Stakeholders Engagement Assessment Matrix
C = Current engagement level
D = Desired engagement level
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, p. 403

76. Stakeholder Management Outputs
The stakeholder management plan
Project documents

77. Guidelines to Develop a Stakeholder Management Plan
Review the project management.
Review the stakeholder register.
Review enterprise environmental factors.
Review organizational process assets.
Use tools and techniques such as expert judgment.
Hold meetings with experts and the project team.
Use analytical techniques to classify the level of engagement for stakeholders.
Document the stakeholder management plan.

78. Reflective Questions
How could your organization benefit from comprehensive risk planning?
How could your organization benefit from more effective procurement planning?