1. Annual Education Lecture 19 February 2014 The Cruel Myths and Basic Maths of MOOCs Diana Laurillard London Knowledge Lab Institute of Education

2. Outline of the argument The social purpose of HE The global demand for HE The capabilities of MOOCs The economics of teaching and learning at HE level Modelling costs and pedagogy Teaching on the large scale with technology Modelling costs and benefits The principles and maths of HE

3. Economic - Personal - Knowledge - Social - The social purpose of HE Personal - Knowledge - Economic - Social - to inspire and enable individuals to develop their capabilities to the highest potential levels throughout life to increase knowledge and understanding for their own sake and foster their application to the benefit of the economy and society to serve the needs of an adaptable, sustainable, knowledge-based economy at local, regional and national levels to play a major role in shaping a democratic, civilised and inclusive society instruction in skills for employment promoting the general powers of the mind advancing learning transmitting a common culture and standards of citizenship Robbins Report (1963): Aims and purposes of HE Dearing Report (1997): Aims and purposes of HE

4. The global demand for education The new UNESCO goals for education: Every child completes a full 9 years of free basic education … Post-basic education expanded to meet needs for knowledge and skills … (UNESCO post 2015 goals) By 2025, the global demand for higher education will double to ~200m per year, mostly from emerging economies (NAFSA 2010) 300,000 school-age children are refugees in Lebanon, without schooling Student loan debt in US is higher than CC debt so students will demand new models of teaching and learning So how do we play a major role in shaping a democratic, civilised and inclusive society 1:25 staff:students??

5. The MOOC as large-scale pedagogy MOOCs are not large scale – Duke University Completed = 21% of starters Duke University Report 2012 21%

6. The MOOC as large-scale pedagogy Average student numbers per course - Edinburgh 5500 6000 15000 20500 51500 Completed = 27% of starters MOOCs @ Edinburgh 2013 – Report #1 27%

7. The MOOC as large-scale pedagogy Average student numbers per course - UoL 9592 11377 17275 23367 53250 MOOC Report 2013: University of London 7730 6747 2211 9% Completed = 9% of starters

8. The MOOC as undergraduate education Not for undergraduates Enrolled students Duke University Report 2012 72% have degrees

9. The MOOC as undergraduate education Not for undergraduates Enrolled students 40% 30% 17% 10% 3% MOOCs @ Edinburgh 2013 – Report #1 70% have degrees

10. The MOOC as undergraduate education Not for undergraduates Enrolled students 4% 29% 35% 8% 3% MOOC Report 2013: University of London 68% have degrees 8% 11%

11. The MOOC as undergraduate education MOOCs: Higher Educations Digital Moment? 2013: UUK 85% have degrees

12. The economics of teaching and learning in MOOCs MOOCs are free open to all wholly online aimed at ~5 credits of learning time require ~£30,000 to develop, or more

13. The economics of teaching and learning in HE Preparation of curriculum and resources Adaptive systems: field trips, lab sessions, simulations, models Expositions: lectures, study guides, slides, podcasts, videos Formative assessment: feedback from peers, digital systems Readings: books, papers, websites, pdfs Collaborations: projects, workshops, role play simulations, wikis Peer group discussion: seminars, discussion forums Formative assessment: tutor feedback offline, feedback online Tutored discussion: tutorials, small groups, discussion forums Summative assessment: exams, essays, designs, performance Support for students learning Fixed cost Variable cost

14. What it takes to teach online Teaching time/student505005000 Guided MOOC 20 hrs200 hrs2000 hrs Basic MOOC 0.00 Total teaching time Preparation time = 420 hrs Basic MOOC: peer support, no tutor support Guided MOOC: tutors monitor and join discussions, react to problems, redesign quizzes, post updates Prep time = 420 Based on Duke University Report 2012 The variable cost of high quality teaching does not achieve economies of scale if you maintain the same pedagogy Guided MOOC Basic MOOC to inspire and enable individuals to develop their capabilities to the highest potential levels throughout lifeto inspire and enable individuals to develop their capabilities to the highest potential levels throughout life [Dearing 1997]

15. The cruel myths of the MOOC model Content will be free MOOCs will make HE accessible to the boy in a Cairo slum A piece of s/w can understand exactly how a student learns which the teacher cannot do And the worrying fantasies: A lot of what you teach is not viable to charge for because the machine will do it better No.1 pushback from investors was they did not understand why it needed to be accredited because no-one will care Many academics are happy to donate time because of the reach of MOOCs $100m venture capital – to share tuition revenue Coursera model has 3 income streams: certification (not accredited), employers pay, other institutions pay [Goldman Sachs MOOC debate Nov 2012] A MOOC with 50,000 students is worth a paper in Nature [Royal Flemish Academy of Science and Arts, Thinker in Residence, Feb 2014]

16. The realities of the MOOC model Education is not a mass delivery industry Content is not free Teaching is also guidance, support, evaluation Education is a client-centred industry There is no valid business model for MOOCs Massive courses are inevitable if open to all and free Open to all means no prior qualifications a different curriculum and pedagogy Online courses have been perfected over many years by the OU and others Courses imply student readiness, defined outcomes, and assessment against them MOOCs are parasitic on university teaching paid for by undergraduates The pedagogic innovation required for effectiveness has attracted little investment The dominant users are highly qualified professionals Undergraduates need guidance, support, nurturing, which is labour intensive Achieving high-level concepts and skills requires intensive study and guidance Academic study is hard – the flipped classroom requires extensive careful design education is not content acquisition because education is a curated guided experience [Martin Bean, VC, OU] the delivery of content is going to be relegated to online [so] people can do it on their own time…interacting with the material rather than just sitting there taking notes [Daphne Koller, Davos World Forum 2014]

17. The reality of current teaching models The system isnt broken Student satisfaction at a nine-year high [HEFCE August 2013] Assessment and feedback still scores lowest at 72%

18. Balancing the benefits and costs Its important to understand the link between the pedagogical benefits and teaching time costs of online learning – especially for the large-scale What are the new digital pedagogies that will address the 1:25 student guidance conundrum? How to shift variable cost support to fixed cost support? Can we develop a viable business model that will make HE more effective and affordable for undergraduates?

19. Conceal answers to question Ask for user-constructed input Show multiple answers/comments Ask student to improve answer Concealed MCQs The (virtual) Keller Plan The vicarious master class Pyramid discussion groups Pedagogies for supporting large classes Tutorial for 5 representative students Questions and guidance represent all students needs 240 individual students produce response to open question Pairs compare and produce joint response Groups of 4 compare and produce joint response and post as one of 10 responses... 6 groups of 40 students vote on best response Teacher receives 6 responses to comment on Introduce content Self-paced practice Tutor-marked test Student becomes tutor for credit Until half class is tutoring the rest

20. Pedagogies for supporting large classes Concealed MCQs The (virtual) Keller Plan The vicarious master class Pyramid discussion groups Laurillard, 2002 Keller, 1974 Mayes et al, 2001 Gibbs et al, 1992 The traditional pedagogies for large classes could be redesigned as digital formats

21. The roles and capabilities of technology How is accessibility improved? Internet gives wide access to best lecture/presentations Education comes to the student Asynchronous presentation allows self-pacing Technology provides support tools for disabilities Fixed, amortised Variable, geared Acquisition Inquiry Discussion Practice Production Categories Quality content Localisation Self-pacing Adaptivity Why should pedagogy improve? Quality of presentation is improved by multimedia features Accessibility of resources aids inquiry learning Asynchronous discussion increases the ratio of student:staff talk Using digital models (microworlds) recruits natural learning skills Design tools motivate the articulation of what has been learned How would costs be reduced? Expensive production costs can be amortised over large numbers Shift to interactive feedback reduces variable costs

22. What it takes to teach with technology The teaching workload is increasing in terms of Planning for how students will learn in the mix of the physical, digital and social learning spaces designed for them Curating and adapting existing content resources Designing activities and resources for all types of active learning Personalised and adaptive teaching that improve traditional methods Providing flexibility in blended learning options Guiding and nurturing large cohorts of students Using learning technologies to improve scale AND outcomes BUT: Institutions and teachers do not typically plan for the teaching workload implied by these learning benefits nor for the need to collaborate to innovate with technology …higher education – whether it is delivered online or face-to- face – needs to keep honouring its higher aim, to give graduates both work-related skills and means for self expression. [Prof Gianpiero Petrigieri, Davos World Forum 2014]

23. Browse Adopt Adapt Create Review RedesignTestPublish The design cycle for teaching Building teaching community knowledge Make links to existing content resources Redesign existing content resources? Build on others tested designs

24. Browse Adopt Adapt Create Review RedesignTestPublish Similar to the design cycle for science Building scientific knowledge What is the teaching design equivalent of the journal paper?

25. The Learning Designer: Browse

26. The Learning Designer: Adopt (interpreting a Tudor portrait) Details of: learning context, topic, aims, outcomes, student numbers, duration Details of the pedagogy: types of learning activity, group size, teacher presence, attached urls, duration, student guidance Analysis of the learning experience calculated dynamically

27. The Learning Designer: Adapt (experimental design for Psychology) Note the designed time is much greater than the allotted time Every section of the learning design can be edited, and new resources attached Analysis of the learning experience adapts to your edits

28. The Learning Designer: Review (Business planning for engineers) Notes for additional comments Reviews and comments could be student evaluations Additional pane for Reviewer to add comments according to criteria Test of outcome? Alignment? Feedback? Technology?

29. Browse Adopt Adapt Create Review RedesignTestPublish Teaching as a design cycle Building learning technology knowledge Question: What is the teaching design equivalent of the journal paper? Answer: A learning design that can be reviewed, adapted, improved, published, reused…

30. Analysing teacher workload (the Course Resource Appraisal Model CRAM) Run No. of students Run 1 15 Run 2 20 Run 3 20 Run 1 Run 2 Run 3 Students 15 20 20 Profit -£27k £4k £11k Details of: credit hours, cohort size, income, teacher costs, types of learning and teaching, online and f2f, time for prep and for support Learning experience Teacher preparation time Teaching support time

31. Analysing teacher workload (the Course Resource Appraisal Model CRAM) Run No. of students Run 1 15 Run 2 20 Run 3 20 Run 1 Run 2 Run 3 Students 15 20 20 Profit -£27k £4k £11k Run No. of students Run 1 15 Run 2 30 Run 3 60 Run 1 Run 2 Run 3 Students 15 30 60 Profit -£27k £11k £38k

32. What does this mean for the basic maths? If we are not careful to understand the variable costs of teaching (and other) support, then using online to scale up will be unmanageable We need large student numbers to offset the high production costs of the flipped classroom (and high visibility teaching)

33. Teaching as a Design Science: Building pedagogical patterns for learning and technology (Routledge, 2012) d.laurillard@ioe.ac.uk http://web.lkldev.ioe.ac.uk/LD/ http://buildingcommunityknowledge.wordpress.com Further details… http://bit.ly/1cqiIK1

34. Issues for discussion? What proportion of an academics time should be spent on teaching innovation? What is the role of the professoriate in helping to develop a vision for the future of academic teaching? Is there an ethically robust and academically viable model for the future of HE?

35. The MOOC opinion-formers Daphne Koller, Professor of computer science at Stanford and co-founder of online university course provider Coursera I think the delivery of content is going to be relegated to the online format, [so] people can do it on their own time…interacting with the material rather than just sitting there and taking notes. [Davos World Forum 2014] Louis Hyman, Professor of History at Cornell Whether they build their own content or draw on an existing MOOC, professors can off-load content to on-line formats and spend face-to-face time interacting with students… Universities will not be destroyed, only lectures, and in their demise better conversations will happen. [the flipped classroom] Jonathan Rees, Professor of History at Colorado State Coursera isnt offering MOOC content directly to professors. Theyre marketing it to administrations who will need to find a financial justification for their very expensive MOOC content purchases.