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Buying and Selling: Uncertainty

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Presentation on theme: "Buying and Selling: Uncertainty"— Presentation transcript:

1 Buying and Selling: Uncertainty

2 Three Applications Model with real endowments 1. Labor Supply
(Labor-Leisure Choice) 2. Intertemporal Choice (Consumption-Savings Choice) 3. Uncertainty (Insurance) (Consumption across states of the world)

3 Uncertainty Two States of the world: no rain and rain Probabilities
Goods: consumption Endowment: income in two states and states Possibility of insurance

4 Uncertainty and Lotteries

5 Uncertainty Bundle defines a lottery
Expected lottery: “Average payment” Examples Risk aversion better than

6 Utility Uncertainty – special preferences Von Neumann-Morgenstern
is a Bernoulli utility function Expected Utility

7 Examples (Risk attitudes)

8 Utility and Risk Aversion

9 Utility and Risk Aversion

10 Utility and Risk Aversion

11 Uncertainty (three functions)

12 Certainty Equivalent Certainty equivalent of lottery Example
Risk Aversion:

13 Choice of Insurance

14 Fair Insurance Fair Insurance, why? Expected profit
Free Entry and Law of Large Numbers

15 Insurance Bernoulli utility, In optimum: (First secret of happiness)

16 Insurance

17 Not Fair Insurance When Insurance is not fair
In optimum: (First secret of happiness)


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