1. SA Economic Indicators
Updated to 30 September 2015

2. SA Economic Indicators
What is the SA Economic Indicators report?
Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month.
How to read this report
Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source.
Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months.
e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015
GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015)
Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods.
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3. SA Economic Indicators
BASKET WEIGHTING
2008
Food 15.7%
Petrol 4.8%
Electricity 1.9%
Inflation
BASKET WEIGHTING
2012
Food 15.4%
Petrol 7.3%
Electricity 4.2%
Source: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month
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4. SA Economic Indicators
Inflation: CPI by Category
Rand depreciation pushes up Food inflation
Source: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month
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5. SA Economic Indicators
Inflation: CPI by Food Type
Fish was the only food type to experience inflation above the upper target band. Vegetables experienced deflation for the second consecutive month.
Source: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month
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6. SA Economic Indicators
Inflation across the income groupings remains below the upper target band. Lower-end consumers are exposed to higher inflation rates due to their higher exposure to commodities.
Inflation: CPI by Expenditure Quintile*
NOTE: StatsSA divides the 5 quintiles* by household expenditure as follows: quintile 1 up to R21 399, quintile 2 R – R35 750, quintile 3 R – R61 624, quintile 4 R – R , quintile 5 R
*A quintile refers to an equitable division of the population into 5 equal groups
Source: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month
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7. SA Economic Indicators
Inflation
COMMENTARY
CPI for August 2015: decreased to 4.6% (July: 5.0%)
A slight decrease from last month’s highest level so far this year
Transport: decreased 1.5% between July & August 2015 to -0.7% (compared to 1% change the previous month), mainly due to the decrease in petrol price in August (lag effect)
Food and non-alcoholic beverages: decrease of 0.1% between July and August The annual rate decreased to 4.3% (down from 4.4% in July)
Food inflation is expected to bottom out over the next few months and then increase again towards year end
This is due to a probable increase in local maize prices (and therefore also meat prices) as a result of the drought
Other factors coming into play are the weak rand, unstable fuel price and the increase in electricity tariffs
Core inflation*: Measured 5.3% (from 5.4% in July)
Eskom’s application for a further 12.6% increase from 1 July 2015 was denied, easing pressure on our inflationary outlook, although the already approved rise of 12% is taking its toll on consumers and industry
A load-shedding free period during September has resulted in nervous positivity, however consumers are doubtful that this will continue
*Excludes volatile prices such as food, petrol, non-alcoholic beverages and energy
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8. Tabang Mbenge | Junior Retail Analyst
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Tabang Mbenge | Junior Retail Analyst
Tarryn Butler | Senior Retail Analyst
Maryla Masojada | Head Research
Disclaimer
These materials and the information contained herein are collated by TI* referencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face interviews, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer goods trading environment and selected retailers, and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information published in this work is accurate, your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business, and TI makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein.
TI will not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein.
TI expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy.
* TI refers to The Retail Workshop (Pty) Ltd trading as Trade Intelligence
Other Sources
ABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Stanlib, Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; thesouthafrican.com