1. SA Economic Indicators
Updated to 30 September 2015

2. SA Economic Indicators
What is the SA Economic Indicators report?
Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month.
How to read this report
Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source.
Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months.
e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015
GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015)
Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods.
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3. SA Economic Indicators
Economic Growth (GDP)
Note: In Q3/2014 GDP was rebased to the year 2010 – all figures thus reflect the rebase.
Source: StatsSA | Frequency: Quarterly | Release date: Q1 – May, Q2 – August; Q3 – November, Q4 – February
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4. SA Economic Indicators
Economic Growth (GDP)
COMMENTARY
GDP shrunk -1.3% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q2/2015
Year-on-year growth measured 1.2%
Nominal GDP for Q2 was R991bn (R26bn more than Q1/2015)
Key drivers of decline in Q2:
Manufacturing industry (-6.3% decline)
Mining and quarrying (-6.8% decline)
The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry (-17.4% decline)
Economic growth will be weak over the coming months due to:
Labour and electricity issues
High unemployment rate
The worst drought in two decades contracting agricultural output
Imminent US and UK interest rate hike, curbing investment and weakening the rand
Uncertainty in South East Asia and stock market crash due to declining exports, resulting in rapid devaluation of currency
Weakening exchange rate
Declining commodity prices
“The global economy is entering unchartered waters, with the prospect of normalisation in the US and a slowdown in China impacting on commodity prices.” – Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South Africa Reserve Bank (August 2015)
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5. Tabang Mbenge | Junior Retail Analyst
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fax
Tabang Mbenge | Junior Retail Analyst
Tarryn Butler | Senior Retail Analyst
Maryla Masojada | Head Research
Disclaimer
These materials and the information contained herein are collated by TI* referencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face interviews, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer goods trading environment and selected retailers, and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information published in this work is accurate, your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business, and TI makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein.
TI will not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein.
TI expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy.
* TI refers to The Retail Workshop (Pty) Ltd trading as Trade Intelligence
Other Sources
ABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Stanlib, Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; thesouthafrican.com