1. 1 The dredging industry and the European port system: challenges and opportunities Prof. Dr. Theo Notteboom President, ITMMA - University of Antwerp Part-time professor in Maritime Transport - Antwerp Maritime Academy CEDA Dredging Days Antwerp, 1-3 October 2008

2. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 2 Dredging companies have been involved in major port-related projects in Europe, but its seems the center of activity is shifting to elsewhere

3. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 3 Some relevant questions to the dredging industry What about the growth path for European port activities ? In what sectors ? Where are the growth markets for port development in Europe ? Do upstream river ports have a future ? What about transhipment ? Are we slowly approaching the end of an era of large port infrastructure works in Europe ? What role for the dredging industry in sustainable port development ?

4. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 4 General observations European ports find themselves embedded in ever-changing economic and logistics systems. The European port industry overall is a healthy industry A blend of different port types and sizes No lack of port competition in Europe

5. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 5 1.General observations European port traffic - 2005

6. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 6 For more details on European port volumes ESPO/ITMMA reports (www.espo.be)

7. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 7 Port competition is changing Cargo concentration … but more ports

8. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 8

9. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 9 The challenge of the periphery Evolution of the share of the market leader in each gateway region (in %)

10. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 10 The North-South balance in perspective Iso-distance zone – 250 km Hamburg-Le Havre range 2005 (1996) % of population EU27= 19% (19%) % of GDP EU27= 25% (28%) % of TEU traffic EU27= 43% (39%) Algeciras-Livorno range 2005 (1996) % of population EU27= 13% (12%) % of GDP EU27= 15% (14%) % of TEU traffic EU27= 16% (16%)

11. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 11 Source: Notteboom & Rodrigue (2005) Port competition is changing Port regionalization is unfolding

12. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 12 Lattakia. Beirut. Beirut. Haifa. Ashod.. Bar. Barcelona. Civitavecchia. Ancona. Constanza Fos. Genoa. Haydarpasa.. Izmir. Koper. La Spezia Limassol. Leghorn. Mersin. Naples.. Odessa. Piraeus. Ravenna Salerno.. Thessaloniki Venice. Trieste.. Valencia. Kumport. Varna. Armaport Gemlik. Ilyichevsk. Tartous 12 Port dynamics in the Med. Gioia Tauro. Port Said Alessandria. Alessandria.. Malta. Taranto. Damietta. Algeciras. Cagliari Main shipping lane Med ports going north ?

13. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 13 Transhipment hubs under scrutiny and its impact on inland freight distribution The market shares of ports in the West Mediterranean. Ports grouped according to the diversion distance from the main shipping route (1975-2007)

14. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 14 Port competition and the role of upstream ports Evolution of the market shares in the Le Havre-Hamburg range

15. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 15 Ports live in a turbulent world

16. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 16 The environment is changing Fear for impact of economic downturn Impact of high fuel costs Pressure on (infrastructural) capacity Environmental and security issues are omnipresent

17. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 17 Fear for impact of economic downturn World Container Traffic, 1980-2008. Reaching Peak Growth?

18. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 18 Rising bunker prices Bunker price for CST 380 in Rotterdam ($ per ton) Source: based on data Clarksons Research Services Ltd

19. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 19 Pressure on infrastructural capacity New large port infrastructure projects are still coming on stream, but it takes much longer than expected and less projects make it to the finish Development of initial plans Proposed date for start operations (first phase) Date for start terminal operations Le Havre Port 2000 – France199420032006 Antwerp – Deurganck Dock - Belgium199520012005 Rotterdam – Euromax Terminal – the Netherlands 200020042008 Rotterdam – Maasvlakte II – the Netherlands199120022013/2014 Deepening Westerscheldt -the Netherlands/Belgium 199820032008 Wilhelmshaven/JadeWeserPort - GermanyNA20062010/2011 Cuxhaven - GermanyNA2006Never Dibden Bay – UKNA2000Never London Gateway – UKNA20062013 Felixstowe South – UKNA20062008 Hull Quay 2000/2005NA20002011

20. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 20 Realising terminals takes (more) time Environmental considerations are prominent in port planning: balancing of economic, social and environmental values Emancipation process and local rationality (cf. NIMBY) of pressure groups (Pitfalls in) regulations and procedures slow down decision-making process Port managers spend a lot of time in embedding the port in local community

21. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 21 Securing port capacity Notwithstanding new capacity will come on stream in the coming years, delays due to port congestion could become a structural problem in the longer term: 1. Limitations to terminal productivity increases 2. Public support for port development is lacking 3. Rules and procedures 4. Governments retreat in the funding of ports 5. Investment climate 6. Weak support for port co-opetition-model The battle for securing port capacity will continue

22. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 22 Sustainability is key to allow further port development The sustainability objective has given rise to important spin-off activities for the dredging industry. Environmental impact of port projects not only one-sided negative: port projects can be instigator of environmental initiatives that would otherwise not develop.

23. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 23 Sustainability is key to allow further port development Harmonizing ecology and economy: the Antwerp co-habitation model (compensation: 6-7% of total cost price!) Source: Port of Antwerp

24. CEDA - Antwerp – 2 Oct 2008 Prof. Dr. T. Notteboom 24 Sustainability is key to allow further port development The dredging industry plays a key role: Technological innovation to secure port expansion; Disposal of dredged material (e.g. La Spezia, Antwerp) Assist in environmental planning linked to port expansion projects; Coordinate with port authorities, terminal operators, government departments and organisations (e.g. Ecoports/Green Ports) to help legislators in setting realistic environmental targets; Share best practices to help develop environmental standards taking into account the unique nature of each port and each dredging project

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