1. Associate Vice President
PREDICTIVE MODELING
Daniel V. Pinch III
Associate Vice President
Emerson College

2. WHY? To reduce your discount rate
In order to attract and retain higher quality students
Attract higher quality students while keeping discount rate constant

3. Which category does your tuition fall into?
I. “High Interest” Institution:
Many quality applicants to choose from
“Mild Interest” Institution:
A good number of applicants to choose from
“Low Interest” Institution:
A select group of applicants to choose from

4. Do you know your institutions current acceptance and yield rates?

5. Many individuals within the institution do not/cannot visualize a problem
Students are expecting more aid
Federal limits on aid
Institutional aid is capped as a % of revenues
Institutional leaders and decision makers need to proactively spend money to identify and rectify problems

6. Enrollment is up Housing is full Retention is high
In This Example . . .
Enrollment is up
Housing is full
Retention is high

7. What is the Problem?

8. ~Many solutions will be offered~
Once a Problem has been identified
The etiology is often contested
Decision makers have differing views on the causes of the problem
-Diversity
-Retention of key students
-Increased competition
Leading to different ideas on potential solutions
~Many solutions will be offered~

9. The challenge is to identify a workable solution
‘Vendor selection is the key to solving the problem. The right vendor is truly an invested partner.’

10. The following items must be worked out . . .
Data collection
Internal vs. External
Data Ownership
Compatibility with team
Belief in the proposed solution
Success measures
Solution costs

11. Admission vs. Financial aid Deadlines
Effective project scheduling
Project point person
Client input sessions
Implementation
Deliverables
Review sessions

12. Plan on Problems Formatting of data Timing of transmissions
Terminology

13. Aid allocation Process
In order to better understand the aid allocation process as it impacts the enrollment continuum, the institution identifies 4 mutually exclusive groups:
Accepted
- Enrolled
- Withdrawn
- Graduated

14. Profiles were done on a variety of key student segments
Gender
State Residency
SAT Scores
Entry Date
Academic Department
High School Rank

15. We looked at the aid students only In this model

16. ~ Once the students most likely to enroll and persist are identified the data is placed into a model ~

17. ~ The model will put the students into 10 Decile’s; each identified by their likelihood of enrolling and persisting ~

18. The model was implemented and was VERY successful!