1. SA Economic Indicators:
for the month of August 2014

2. SA Economic Indicators
Christmas sales contribute ±20% to the year’s total retail sales each year
Retail Trade Sales – 2012 Constant Prices
Updated August 2014
Effects of 2008/2009 Recession
Source: StatsSA
Note:
Retail trade includes the resale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods and products to the public for household use. Retailers of consumer goods are not classified in a category of their own according to StatsSA but rather in the two broader categories of ‘retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores’ and ‘retailers in pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries’.

3. SA Economic Indicators
Retail Trade Sales – 2012 Constant Prices
Updated August 2014
Source: StatsSA
Note:
Retail trade includes the resale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods and products to the public for household use. Retailers of consumer goods are not classified in a category of their own according to StatsSA but rather in the two broader categories of ‘retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores’ and ‘retailers in pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries’.

4. SA Economic Indicators
Retail Trade Sales
COMMENTARY
Retail trade sales for May 2014: up by 2.4% YoY (from a revised 2.1% in Apr 2014)
YoY sales for 3 months ended May 2014: increased by 1.8% (compared to same time in 2013)
The main contributors to the increase: retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (4.4%, contributing 0.9% points) and general dealers (1.0%, contributing 0.4% points)
No sectors were in decline in May
Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased 0.8% MoM. This followed MoM changes of 0.4% in Apr 2014 and -1.1% in Mar 2014
The better than expected retail trade sales data is in line with the improvement of the consumer confidence index in Q2/2014
This was helped by the amount of public holidays in Apr and May boosting retail trade sales
Despite this, consumers continue to remain under pressure due to:
Declining household income
Rising inflation
Contraction in credit extension to households
Rising unemployment and utility costs
As consumers’ income tightens, they shift their habits to prioritise spending on necessities and small-ticket items
Retail trade sales are expected to continue to remain low as consumers experience ever increasing economic difficulties and strike action drain wage income levels
“Despite the upside surprise in retail sales, broader economic metrics affirm a weak macroeconomic outlook.” Tradition Analytics
(NOTE: StatsSA retail trade sales are base on constant prices with a base year of 2012, instead of the previous All data is based on this revaluation.)

5. Kim Furber | Online Support Kirsten Clarke | Retail Analyst - Majors
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Kim Furber | Online Support
Kirsten Clarke | Retail Analyst - Majors
Darren Folkes | Junior Retail Analyst
Kate Shirley | Independent Retail Analyst
Maryla Masojada | Head Research
Disclaimer
These materials and the information contained herein are collated by TI* referencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face interviews, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer goods trading environment and selected retailers, and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information published in this work is accurate, your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business, and TI makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein.
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Other Sources
ABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Stanlib, Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; thesouthafrican.com