1. SA Economic Indicators:
for the month of February 2014

2. SA Economic Indicators
Christmas sales contribute ±20% to the year’s total retail sales each year
Retail Trade Sales – 2008 Constant Prices
Boom period
Spikes indicate festive season sales peaks
Effects of 2008/2009 Recession felt
Source: StatsSA
Note:
Retail trade includes the resale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods and products to the public for household use. Retailers of consumer goods are not classified in a category of their own according to StatsSA but rather in the two broader categories of ‘retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores’ and ‘retailers in pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries’.

3. SA Economic Indicators
Christmas sales contribute ±20% to the year’s total retail sales each year
Retail Trade Sales – 2012 Constant Prices
Updated February 2014
Effects of 2008/2009 Recession felt
Source: StatsSA
Note:
Retail trade includes the resale (sale without transformation) of new and used goods and products to the public for household use. Retailers of consumer goods are not classified in a category of their own according to StatsSA but rather in the two broader categories of ‘retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores’ and ‘retailers in pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries’.

4. SA Economic Indicators
Retail Trade Sales
(NOTE: As part of an improvement programme in economic statistics, StatsSA has introduced changes in the reference year for constant price estimates from 2008 to 2012 prices. Graphs representing both 2008 and 2012 prices are provided in previous slides.)
COMMENTARY
Retail trade sales in real terms (constant 2012 prices) increased by 4.2% YOY in November 2013 from a revised 1.4% in October
Retail trade sales beat expectations with the expected figure to range from 0.3% to 2.1% YOY, showing an unexpected recovery for the month of November in terms of retail sales
However, this is not seen as a recovering trend in retail sales with Jana Le Roux, an economist at ETM Analytics, saying: “We are sceptical about the sustainability of the stronger growth as households continue to feel the squeeze of high and rising food and fuel prices while credit health continues to deteriorate.”
Retail trade sales increased by 2.0% in the three months ended November 2013 compared with the three months ended November 2012
The main contributors to this increase were retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (7.6%, contributing 1.6% points), general dealers (2.0%, contributing 0.8% points) and hardware, paint and glass (3.9%, contributing 0.3% points)
Household furniture, appliances and equipment (-5.7%, contributing -0.3% points) continued to experience declines in retail sales showing a continued trend of consumers not buying ‘big-ticket’ items. Food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores (-2.1%, contributing -0.2% points) experienced declines as did all other retailers (-2.0%, contributing % points)
Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales grew 1.2% month-on-month in November This followed month-on-month changes of -0.3% in October and -0.7% in September 2013.
The ever important December retail trade sales figures are likely to be muted with consumers feeling under pressure from Rand volatility, fuel cost rises and other economic pressures.

5. Kim Furber | Online Support Darren Folkes | Assistant Research Analyst
tel
fax
Kim Furber | Online Support
Darren Folkes | Assistant Research Analyst
Kate Shirley | Independent Retail Analyst
Maryla Masojada | Head Research
Disclaimer
These materials and the information contained herein are collated by TI* referencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face interviews, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer goods trading environment and selected retailers, and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information published in this work is accurate, your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business, and TI makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein.
TI will not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein.
TI expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy.
* TI refers to The Retail Workshop (Pty) Ltd trading as Trade Intelligence
Other Sources
ABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Stanlib, Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; thesouthafrican.com