1. Evaluation from a Corridor perspective: methods and results Merja Penttinen, VTT

2. NEXT-ITS corridor overview
Total length ~3000km
NEXT-ITS 1&2 services coverage ~25 000km
Main measures improved TMC operations
Received CEF-funding
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

3. Services vs. measures, example
NEXT-ITS 2
Service(s) improved by the measure
Measure(s) per Country
Forecast and real-time event Information Service
Traffic Condition and Travel Time Information Service
Weather Information Service
Safety Related Traffic Information Service
Dynamic Lane Management
Variable Speed Limits
Incident Warning and Management
Ramp Metering
Traffic Management Plans for Corridors and Networks
Measure 1 – TMC renewal and adaptation to corridor management and control systems, FI X
Measure 2 – Motorway Control System, SE
Measure 3 - Integrated Traffic Management, SE
Measure 4 - New Traffic Management Centre in “The Traffic Tower” in Copenhagen, DK
Measure 5 - Traffic Management Plans and Ramp Metering Systems, DE
Measure 6 - Traffic Centre Schleswig-Holstein, DE
Measure 7 - DATEX-II improvements for Action C, NO
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

4. Measures vs. services details
Finnish example:
Altogether 6 services were covered by one measure: improving TMC operations (new integrated central traffic management system)
Benefiting 5 different networks:
The most improved one including all 6 services
The widest network including only weather information service
-> CBA calculations included all benefiting networks
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

5. CBA calculations - overview
Central system improvements make the calculations challenging
One cannot really compare before – after situations as such
Benefit estimates always require a lot of background information and expert evaluations
Relevant ex-post evaluation studies were searched and summarized as a background
National unit values vary quite a lot
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

6. Expert part of the evaluation
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

7. National unit values
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

8. Overall result of NEXT-ITS2
The total estimated effects of the services are considerable
The total value of the annual benefits in 2017 will be circa 15 M€.
Implementation costs are of circa 33 M€ including VAT and thereby comparable to the benefits (the costs without VAT amount to almost 27 M€).
The annual operation and maintenance costs were estimated to be 3 M€,
-> the NEXT-ITS 2 can be assessed to be socio-economically profitable.
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

9. Financial support as an enabler/driver
CEF funding requires projects to be deployed even without EU funding
10 – 20% additional funding helps in
Measures to cover more services -> better impacts in networks, of even new roads to be covered
Service quality to be improved -> potential enhancement of effects
Services to be deployed faster -> benefits to be reached faster
One could estimate that in other types of projects receiving more remarkable support -> support has even bigger role as an enabler
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

10. Discussion of NEXT-ITS2 evaluation methodology
The sensitivity analysis shows that the benefits calculated vary a lot dependent on the most important input parameters. However, it can be concluded that even with conservative estimates, NEXT-ITS 2 has a positive net impact.
It needs to be pointed out that the effect estimates are based on a desk-top analysis, which needs to be compared to the actual statistics from the NEXT-ITS 2 corridor and the national networks affected.
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

11. Conclusions
It is clear that the effects of this kind of services are extremely difficult to measure (ex-post) especially in this era of technology disruption due to connected and automated driving, the internet of things, digitalization, etc.
Thereby, even the ex-post evaluation needs to be accompanied with a desk-top analysis similar to the ex-ante assessment reported here.
Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

12. Utrecht, 14 and 15 November