1. Rice Growing Outlook activity in AFSIS
- by using satellite meteorological information -
Shoji Kimura
ASEAN Food Security Information System
Technical Advisor

2. (ASEAN Food Security Information System)
Introduction of AFSIS
(ASEAN Food Security Information System)
AFSIS
as a subsidiary body under AMAF +3
AMAF : ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Agricultural Forestry
13 member countries (10 ASEAN countries + China, Japan, Korea)
Objective
To strengthen food security in the region through the systematic collection, analysis and dissemination of food security related information. 
Firstly, I would like to introduce about AFSIS.
AFSIS is a subsidiary body under ASEAN + 3 Ministers Meeting on Agriculture and Forestry.
And it has established in 2003 to strengthen food security in ASEAN region through the development of reliable agricultural data.
Office is located in BKK.

3. Development of Food Security Information in ASEAN
VISION
MISSION
Administrative activity
Development of Information network
Development of Human capacity
Development of Agricultural
statistics research
DG –FP Meeting
Management of
training
and workshop
Annual Report
Accounting
Others
AFSIS Data base
ACO Report
EWI Report
Others
Training
Mutual technical
cooperation
Seminar, Workshop
Others
ALIS
Forecasting Model
Information
Rice growing outlook
Others
The total vision of AFSIS is the development of food security information in ASEAN.
To achieve this vision, AFSIS has implemented 3 missions.
The first mission is the development of information network.
The making of Database and Food Security reports are included in this mission.
The second mission is the development of human capacity.
The implementation of Mutual technical cooperation and “various training and seminar” are included in this mission.
The third mission is the development of agricultural statistics research.
Today’s subject, Rice growing outlook activity is included in this mission.

4. Rice Growing Outlook activity
GEOGLAM
AMIS
Report
“Global Agricultural GEO monitoring initiative”
JAXA
RESTEC
Satellite weather information website
(JASMIN and Warning Information)
Information check
Asia-Rice
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Report
As you know, Rice is the most important crop in SEA region as staple food and commercial crop.
Therefore, to grasp rice growing condition timely becomes a sensitive work in SEA countries.
This activity is a corporative activity with Asia-Rice and it started from October 2013.
JAXA has developed a Satellite weather information system, named JASMIN for this activity.
7 Member countries make a monthly rice growing outlook based on actual rice field condition referring JASMIN too.
AFSIS scrutinizes each country’s outlook and reports them to Asia-Rice.
These reports are reflected into GEOGLAM (Group on Earth Observation developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring) and AMIS report.
Making monthly
rice growing outlook
AFSIS
Report

5. In addition, AFSIS publishes this compiled outlook as an AFSIS repot widely.

6. This activity has become one of the important task in AFSIS.

7. This is the JASMIN JASMIN is a web-system developed by JAXA and distributes satellite meteorological data as country map image and time series graph of all provinces
TOP
Time Series Graph
Map Image
The sheet moves to JASMIN introduction.
Remote Sensing Technology Center of Japan

8. Date characteristics of JASMIN JASMIN provides seven types of satellite observation weather data and they are updated twice a month

9. JASMIN Demonstration will be performed on September 17th at 10 o’clock, Morning Session

10. Rice growing outlook needs the functional weather data
Rice Growing outlook is character information established by
“When, Where, Who, What, Why, How, How much”.
(For example)
The rice growing condition in the northern region of
(Who) (What) (Where)
June is good than last year due to enough rain.
(When)(How) (How much) (Why)
※The outlook writer needs to recognize that the outlook value without “Why” description becomes half.

11. “Why” is not only weather condition, but………
Yield Requisites of RICE
Requisite
Main Phenomenon or Event
Condition
Good (High)
Poor (Low)
Agricultural Technology
•Irrigation
•Breed improvement
•Fertilizer, Agricultural
chemical
•Agricultural machine
Increase in yield
Non-increase in yield
Motivation of Farmer
•Market price
•Agriculture policy (Subsidies)
High
fertilization management
Low
Weather Condition
•Precipitation
•Solar Radiation
•Temperature
Good harvest
Poor harvest
•Weather disaster
•Growth injury
•Other damage
(disease and insect)
Others
•Field capacity
•Field environment
High yield
Low yield
should be considered as a long-term
directly represented by the increase in planted area
Actually, “Why” is not only weather condition.
It is known that rice yield is decided by agricultural technology like ….., farmer motivation like ……, weather condition …….., and other factor like ….
However, agricultural technology should be considered as a long –term factor.
Farmer motivation will be directly represented by the increase in planted area not yield.
And the others like field capacity is not an external factor.
Therefore, we can focus weather condition as the yield requisite for the monthly rice growing outlook as “why”.
It is not an external factor

12. What kind of weather condition is good for rice growing?
You may consider that good weather generates good yield, it’s easy.
But the story is not so simple.
Most of outlook writers questioned what kind of weather condition is good for rice yield or growth.
Plus, outlook writer has to note rice growing stage this month.

13. Rice yield estimation
Rice yield is decided by “Number of panicle”, “Number of grain” and “Weight of grain”. The multiplications of these three components become the final rice yield.
The assessment of rice growing and yield is to assess the attributes of these three components which are affected by the weather condition.

14. Young Panicle Forming Stage
Growing assessment by using weather information
Many
Number of panicle
Many
Number of grain
Heavy
Weight of grain x x
= Good yield
Seeding Stage
Tillering Stage
Young Panicle Forming Stage
Grain Filling Stage
Sowing
Harvesting
In fact, enough solar radiation in Tillering stage promotes the tillering and generates many panicles.
Enough precipitation in Young panicle forming stage promotes the panicle growing and generates many grains.
Enough precipitation and solar radiation in Grain filling stage promotes the grain growing and generates heavy grains.
As the result, it expects good yield at the harvesting time with high provability.
Poor yield is estimated in case of against weather condition.
Enough Solar radiation
Enough Precipitation
Enough Precipitation
Enough Solar radiation

15. To reflect the weather condition correctly to the assessment of rice yield and growth, Outlook writer has to prepare the Crop calendar for this activity.
AFSIS uses this comprehensive crop calendar of target 7 countries for the scrutiny of monthly outlook.

16. Study, Hear, Look, Check for the Rice Growing Assessment
Assess the growing !
Local Office
Hear opinion
Check weather condition
Farmer
Monthly rice growing outlook is a sensitive information in SEA region, politically and economically.
We can not open incorrect information.
Therefore, AFSIS has instructed country’s outlook writers to study crop science, hear the opinion from local office and farmers, look field condition, and check the weather condition carefully before the writing of rice growing outlook.
JASMIN has played an important task for the weather observation.
Study crop science
Look field condition

17. How to decipher JASMIN Map
2011 July Second half precipitation Current Map
From this sheet, I introduce “How to decipher JASMIN” using some examples.
Let’s refer the flood which occurred in 2011, Thailand, as an example of weather disaster which gave the big influence for rice growing condition. The heavy rain brought by Typhoon, Nock-ten can be observed by “Current Map”. The map shows that there was rain mainly in the northeastern region.

18. How to decipher JASMIN Map
2011 July Second half soil moisture Current Map
The flood area can be estimated by soil moisture map. Dark red indicates the areas with soil moisture above 50%. The flooding area spreads from northeastern region to central region due to heavy rain in July second half.

19. How to decipher JASMIN Map
2011 September First half precipitation Current Map
In August, the rain stopped once, but northeastern region and central region were suffered by heavy rain again in September first half. The occurrence of flood was decisive due to this rainfall.

20. How to decipher JASMIN Map
2011, 2017 September First half Soil Moisture Current Map
The difference is obvious when comparing soil moisture map in 2011 and 2017 in September first half.

21. How to decipher JASMIN Map
2011 September Second half Soil Moisture Current Map
In September second half, the flood condition in northeastern region is recovering, but the central region continues flooded condition still.
Like this, the outlook writer can grasp the weather condition and degree with Current Map and Anomaly Map of JASMIN.
However, what is important in rice growing outlook is to grasp accurately the influence for the rice growth due to the disaster.
For this reason, the outlook writer needs to determine the damage degree based on the type of disaster and current growing condition, based on the timing of the disaster occurrence is in which stage of rice growing.

22. How to decipher JASMIN Time Series Graph
Time Series Graph shows the line graph of weather transition by each weather index and each province.
Time Series Graph shows the condition of this year, previous year and normal year by each beginning and end of the year.
The first point to pay attention is the trend of Climate (normal value).
The weather influencing to rice growth is precipitation, solar radiation, and temperature mainly.
For this reason, if this year's precipitation, solar radiation, and temperature trends are exactly the same with the normal, it can be consider that this year's rice yield is normal.

23. How to decipher JASMIN Time Series Graph
Let’s look at the low temperature condition in Northern Vietnam from 2017 to 2018 in Time Series Graph.
The low temperature trend started since the end of November in 2017, and this trend continued until the end of February in 2018.
Meanwhile, the Northern Vietnam during this period is in the planting season of dry season rice, so there was concern about delay of planting work and growth injury of seeding.
According to country outlook, the planting of dry season rice in the northern Vietnam was delayed by 1 to 2 months due to the influence of this low temperature, resulting in a decrease in planting area.

24. AFSIS would like to thank every institutions
AFSIS would like to thank you for kind cooperation by Asia Rice, and for organized institutions on this valuable workshop.
Rice Growing Outlook activity Workshop by Asia RiCE
　2016, Jan　OAE meeting room, Bangkok

25. Yield feature of rice Yield and Coefficient Variation by Production countrieskg
Rice yield /10a
Wheat yield /10a kg
Intensive farming
Intensive farming
extensive farming
extensive farming
2005
2005
Average Coefficient Variation by Countries : 4.8%
Average Coefficient Variation by Countries : 10.5%
1. Rice yield is hardly influenced by yield requisites like agricultural technology and farmer’s motivation.
2. And the year’s variation of rice yield is small.