Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Meet the managers Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Meet the managers Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund"— Presentation transcript:

1 Meet the managers Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund
This information is solely intended for the use of wholesale clients and is not for general public distribution. This information is issued by Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Institutional Funds Management Limited ABN , AFSL (Janus Henderson). Meet the managers Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund March 2019 Tim Gerrard Portfolio Manager

2 Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Institutional Funds Management Limited
Level 36 Grosvenor Place, 225 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000 T +61 (0) F +61 (0) Important information This information is issued by Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Institutional Funds Management Limited ABN , AFSL (Janus Henderson). The funds referred to within are issued by Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Funds Management Limited ABN , AFSL unless otherwise stated. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. This information is intended solely for the use of wholesale clients, as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and is not for general public distribution. By receiving this information you represent that you are a wholesale client. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Tax assumptions and reliefs depend upon an investor’s particular circumstances and may change if those circumstances or the law change. Prospective investors should not rely on this information and should make their own enquiries and evaluations they consider to be appropriate to determine the suitability of any investment (including regarding their investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs) and should seek all necessary financial, legal, tax and investment advice. If you invest through a third party provider you are advised to consult them directly as charges, performance and terms and conditions may differ materially. This information is not intended to be nor should it be construed as advice. This information is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. It does not form part of any contract for the sale or purchase of any investment. Any investment application will be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the relevant fund's offer document (including all relevant covering documents), which may contain investment restrictions. This information is intended as a summary only and (if applicable) potential investors must read the relevant fund's offer document before investing. This information has been prepared using information from a variety of sources. The information is believed by Henderson to be correct but no warranty is made with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice. Henderson is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect. This information is confidential and must not be made available, published or distributed to any third party without the prior written consent of Henderson. © Janus Henderson Investors. The name Janus Henderson Investors includes HGI Group Limited, Henderson Global Investors (Brand Management) Sarl and Janus International Holding LLC.

3 What are the uncertainties?

4 There are always uncertainties
Global uncertainties There are always uncertainties US Politics Trade war Geopolitics Global Growth ? Environment China’s Growth ? ?

5 How are we prepared?

6 We have a global investment universe
Australian and New Zealand are a small portion of the total opportunity Fertilizer & food Paper & packaging Integrated Oil Oil exploration and production Mining Steel Market Cap (US$bn) Here those red bars for the Australian companies are shown in context wit their global peers – 10x more opportunity Energy is 6.1% of world market cap and Materials 6.4%. Ag food is 2.2%, a small but growing listed sector, so all up around 15%. Source: Bloomberg, Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources team Note: References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security

7 We have a global investment universe
Risk is mitigated through the breadth and size of the investment pool 8.6 Global resource universe is 22x the Australian resources market Trillion (AUD) Global resource universe is 86x the New Zealand stock market 1.9 0.4 0.1 Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg. As at 13 March as at 13 March 2019. Note: Based upon Janus Henderson Investors view of core natural resources; mining, energy and agriculture across the value chain, companies > AUD$1billion market capitalisation

8 We mitigate volatility via three diverse sectors
Each sector has its own trends, outlooks and opportunities Strong outlook for EV metals High performing industry Cyclical recovery in metals underway Globalisation to strengthen businesses Cheap valuation, strong cash generation Technology improving output and profit Making 20% of global equities Strong growth in gas and renewable energy Cyclical recovery in energy has commenced Source: Janus Henderson Investors, as at February 2019

9 Exposure to risk can be dialled up or down
Active allocation across three subsectors and the entire supply chain Agriculture Mining Energy Oil Gas Renewables Upstream Farming Extraction Seeds Crop protection Distribution Midstream Services Distribution Downstream Steel smelters Food Refining Source: Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund. For illustrative purposes only

10 Actively managed exposure
Actively managed exposure across sectors, regions and market caps Agriculture Energy Mining Cash Geographical allocation Portfolio weight (%) Market capitalisation Holdings by market cap Energy (%) Mining (%) Agriculture (%) >$20 billion 19.5 17.5 13.1 $10 - $20 billion 5.6 7.2 8.9 $1 - $10 billion 1.9 15.6 4.3 <$1 billion 0.3 2.5 0.0 Source: Janus Henderson Investors, Bloomberg. As at 31 January 2019 Note: Inception date for the Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund: 1 July 2012

11 We analyse cost curves to decrease risk
High cost producers are avoided US$/dry tonne China’s iron ore supply costs (CFR; costs including royalties and freight) Tonnes millions Source: Fortescue Investor Briefing (source: Metalytics), as at July 2018 Note: References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security

12 Opportunities

13 Environment, Sustainability and Governance (ESG)
The rise and rise of ESG – $1 Trillion and growing ESG is mobilising billions of dollars. 3,165 ESG funds and ETFs globally running over US$1tn – 52% increase over 5 years. Flows into funds classified as sustainable are growing more quickly than for conventional funds. ESG flows currently dominated by Europe. Sustainable fund flows (Europe) Sustainable fund flows (US) Source of images and data is Morningstar (seeking approval for use) and Amundi – internet published Historically responsible investing was mostly about convictions with mixed academic evidence for its merits, with studies plagued by a lack of robust data. As reporting has improved its become possible to show that ESG integration has a tangible impact on equity performance improving the long term performance of portfolios. There has been a massive mobilisation of institutional investors According to MorningStar Direct in June 2018 there were 3165 ESG funds globally running over 1 Trillion of AUM (a 52% increase over 5 years) - $700bn in Europe and $300bn in Europe, $40bn in Australasia. ESG/Responsible Investment/Sustainability at present is thought to be one of the fastest growing asset classes – it can’t be ignored s it cannibalises existing and captures new funds. A focus on ESG could now be considered a competitive advantage and the mindset amongst our clients has changeds from why do you do it to why are you not doing it. This is having a self fulfilling effect on share price performance which is particularly noticeable in the last 5 years or so. According to some interesting research from Amundi, since 2014 across the market in the US and Eurozone it can be shown that best in class stocks have been remunerated and worst in class stocks penalised. (source Amundi). They have shown that tFunds with high sustainability metrics rank more often in top quartiles within their peer investment category. Harvard business review – reference – academic support for good ESG outp perf Bad ESG. The money flow trend is expected to grow stronger. Demand among professional fund buyers for products that incorporate environmental, social and governance criteria has shot up. ESG-related funds have risen from fifth to second place on a list of the most requested product innovations, according to a Broadridge survey of 1,000 European fund buyers. Three years ago ESG funds languished in 16th place. (Source – Broadbridge survey - Selector demand for ESG funds shoots up. By Ed Moisson 23 January 2019) Recent MSCI studies (source AGF report) have shown that high ESG standards translate into better stock performance driven by Higher profits and cash-flow, Lower idiosyncratic risk: Higher ESG-rated companies are better at managing company-specific business and operational risks and thus have a lower probability of suffering incidents that negatively impact share prices, AND Higher valuations: High-rated ESG companies tend to have lower systematic risk and therefore lower costs of capital leading to higher DCF valuations. Euro34.4bn in net flows over 2018 US$5.5bn in net flows over 2018 Source: Morningstar Direct, June 2018

14 Before ESG in practice Note: Images courtesy of Rio Tinto
References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security . Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance.

15 During ESG in practice Note: Images courtesy of Rio Tinto
References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security . Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance.

16 After ESG in practice Note: Images courtesy of Rio Tinto
References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security . Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance.

17 Environment, Sustainability and Governance (ESG)
Materials contributes to the change ? 2003 Beijing: Image source: Source: Royalty free images

18 Environment, Sustainability and Governance (ESG)
China – responding to environmental pressure Aluminium Zinc Thermal coal Iron ore Restricted supply  price resets Source: Image source by Andreas Habich, via Wikimedia Commons 17

19 Opportunities - Mining
Technology helping to drive efficiencies 1900 2018 Future Source: AngloAmerican, Our Copper Business, World Class Assets, Leading Capabilities and Attractive Growth Options, Royalty free images.

20 Opportunities - Energy
LNG as a transition fuel Coal power generation 1t CO2 1t LNG power generation 0.4t CO2 1t Wood Mackenzie, April, Royalty free images.

21 Global themes: renewable energy
Solar and wind power becoming competitive Portfolio application Wind turbines 1.5% Solar power Steel 1.5% Copper 1.5% Source: Note: References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security

22 Global themes: electrification of transport
Battery raw materials…a fast growing segment Portfolio application Lithium 7% metals 20%+ Copper Aluminium Nickel Cobalt Source: Note: References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security

23 Opportunities - Agriculture
Slow food, raw food, youth food…demand is growing for good fresh food In Agriculture changes are occurring rapidly in seed technology, fertilizer and crop protection chemicals, and also in automated, remote and precision farming operations. Food preferences are moving back to natural and healthy options. This shift is rapid affecting right up to the worlds largest companies in challenges to legacy offerings. Heinz just wrote down some core brands by $15.4bn, with the stock plunging 28%. We own good natural food production companies including Costa who grow blueberries across five reigions of Australia in controlled conditions to attain very high quality product year round. Mowi formerly Marine Harvest is a Norwegian based company and the world’s biggest owner of ocean farmed salmon; and Synlait Milk produces very high quality milk derivatives that achieve premium prices. Food provenance and quality Source: , Note: References made to individual securities should not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to issue, sell, subscribe or purchase the security

24 Emerging opportunities could surprise
Global themes: new food sources Source: Royalty free images.

25 Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund
Summary Uncertainty is perpetual and omnipresent. We mitigate risk through investing in a broad investment pool across diverse subsectors and geographies. The rise of ESG is an opportunity rather than a threat. Long term trends are evident in all three subsectors, representing long term investment opportunities.

26 Appendices

27 Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Team
Experienced natural resource investment specialists combining finance with qualifications and industry experience in geology, mining engineering and metallurgy Name David Whitten Daniel Sullivan Darko Kuzmanovic Tal Lomnitzer Tim Gerrard Title Co-Head of Global Natural Resources Senior Portfolio Manager Senior Investment Manager Portfolio Manager Tenure (years)* Firm: 8 Industry: 35 Firm: 5 Industry: 30 Firm: 3 Industry: 34 Firm: Industry: Industry: 39 Responsibility Research overlap across all natural resource sub-sectors & market caps Primarily mid & small cap global resource stocks (mining, energy) Primarily large cap global resource stocks (energy, paper & pack., steel, metal refining) Primarily large cap resource companies (mining, ag., energy, rails, etc.) Previous role Executive Chairman and Lead Portfolio Manager, 90 West Head of Global Resources, Colonial First State Global Asset Management Portfolio Manager/Senior Resource Analyst, 90 West Partner, Caledonia Resources Management Deputy Head of Global Resources, Colonial First State Global Asset Management/First State Investments Senior Resource Analyst, Lonsec Note: *As at 25 February 2019

28 ESG is integrated in our investment process
Our approach ESG is integrated in our investment process As I have already mentioned - good ESG practise enshrines a companies license to operate – often the key to success or disaster. A wise fund manager told me that the first rule of making money is not losing money. A good investment framework must be disciplined and repeatable designed to select the best ideas globally to construct a well diversified portfolio. As this slide shows ESG considerations are integral to the investment analysis undertaken by the team. Basic principle – operating successfully must not come at the expense of detrimental effects to the environment and society in which a company operates. Other threads that bind the investment process are A long term view – sustainable practises lead to superior risk adjusted returns. Committed to principles of good stewardship – consideration of ESG factors is integral to exercising our fiduciary duty to clients. Active ownership - protecting and enhancing the value of the companies in which we invest and the funds of that our clients trust us with. As owners we seek to engage with companies on material ESG issues. Where there is no improvement we would divest holdings and withhold future investment. Material ESG considerations, in line with the principles and standards outlined above, are assessed at company and portfolio levels, in a seven - step process: 1. Cost curve screening, margin analysts and project benchmarking brings in mine rehabilitation, permitting delays, cost of carbon, etc 2. Quality – inclusion of material ESG considerations and performance (adjusted for countries, sectors and size) in our assessment of management quality, corporate policies, management systems, resource quality, corporate compliance and reporting including tax transparency ; 3. Valuation – inclusion of material ESG considerations in the assumptions and calculations underpinning valuations for example permit loss or delay, operating restrictions and site rehabilitation costs ; 4. Growth – the consideration of potential material ESG threats and opportunities that could impact on future growth in earnings, resources and cashflow; 5. Stress testing – flexing assumptions behind valuations and growth models to ensure robust economics under almost any adverse economic scenario. For example, climate change - the extent to which specific assets and the portfolio is exposed to and vulnerable to transition risks and opportunities (e.g. tightening of regulations, new technologies) and physical risks (e.g. extreme weather events, droughts, flooding etc.) and opportunities ; 6. Catalysts – we consider ESG “trigger points” that could impact (positive and negative) on evaluations (e.g. environmental licence renewal, community support decision, regulatory outcome etc .; 7. Conviction – understanding the risks and ensuring that risk reward is attrative. ESG considerations are also included in SWOT analysis.

29 Stock selection is a seven stage process
Balancing quality, valuation, growth, catalyst Continuous loop monitoring and process improvement Qualitative and quantitative – not a ‘black box’ approach 50-70 quality stock portfolio Source: Janus Henderson Investors

30 Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund
Performance Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund Period to: 31 January 2019 1 month (%) 3 months (%) 6 months (%) 1 year 3 years (% p.a.) 5 years Since inception Net performance 5.44 0.33 -7.23 -5.92 13.33 5.43 7.33 S&P Global Natural Resources Index (net dividends reinvested) in AUD 5.84 -2.58 -7.00 0.55 16.86 5.59 7.42 Excess returns (net) -0.40 2.91 -0.23 -6.47 -3.53 -0.16 -0.09 Annualised volatility since inception % Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund 12.54 S&P Global Natural Resources NR AUD 12.83 Source: Janus Henderson Investors, as at 31 January 2019 Note: Inception date is 1 July 2012 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance


Download ppt "Meet the managers Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google