1. Load-Resource Balance
Mike Hopkins
Senior Manager, Price Risk & Resource Planning
Once we have the LT load forecast (before DSM and other savings), we can then look at our existing resources and see if/when we have any gaps in the future, which could be filled with demand-side and/or supply-side resources

2. Energy Load-Resource Balance
this shows how much energy we need to serve our customers during each year in the planning horizon (20 years) as well as our existing supply and DSM
We look at existing resources and compare them to different demand forecasts, using DSM first before other more expensive resources
Load forecast numbers are from the LT load forecast developed in 2015 for the 2016 PBR update
BCH PPA ends Oct 2033 – it’s a flexible resource that we can reduce over time if necessary
This figure assumes we maximize the tranche 1 portion of the BCH PPA and do not use the more expensive tranche 2 portion
Other includes IPP contracts and Brilliant Expansion contract
DSM forecast is based on PBR filing forecast, adjusted for the DSM application – this will be updated after 2015 CPR and new LT DSM plan to be filed in 2016
The Company purchases energy through power purchase contracts with IPPs. IPPs provide less than 1% of FBC annual energy requirements.
Energy gaps appear before the end of the decade

3. Capacity Load–Resource Balance
for capacity, we have different set of resources – biggest diff is WAX CAPA
The resource supply and load requirements presented here are based on December amounts
may not need any significant new capacity until after this decade – with gaps first appearing for jun-jul and dec-jan months
WAX CAPA is net of BCH RCA up to 50 MW sale which ends in 2024
Other includes Brilliant Expansion contract

4. Monthly Capacity Load-Resource Balance (2025)
When looking at capacity, it is important to look at the monthly peak profile to see if there are any monthly gaps

5. Monthly Capacity Load-Resource Balance (2035)

6. Questions?