1. 0 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

2. 1 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, Conflicts and Migration Fabrice Renaud Associate Director UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany

3. 2 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Global Environmental Change and Human Security Adapted from concepts of UNDP, 1991 and Kofi Annan Economic Political Community Personal Environmental Health Food Sustainable Human Development Freedom from WantFreedom from Fear Global Environmental Change

4. 3 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Environmental change, climate change and conflicts Climate change is increasingly discussed in relation to international conflicts and security in general (1) For example, in the West-African Sahel (2) : Droughts linked to climate variability increase the vulnerability of communities and conflicts Migration of pastoralists from the North towards southern regions occupied by sedentary farmers generated some conflicts. But reverse trends also exists whereby farmers from the South move towards the North because of land degradation processes. However, straightforward causality effects are generally rare as many other factors come into play: economic, social, political and cultural (re. the discussions surrounding the Darfur conflict or water wars) (1) Brown et al (2007): Climate change as the new security threat: implications for Africa. International Affairs 83:1141-54 (2) Nyong: Climate related conflicts in West Africa. ECSP Report, Issue No 12.

5. 4 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Current & potential effects of climate change in Latin America Climatic variability and extreme events are severely affecting the Latin America region over recent years (including Amazon drought in 2005) During the last decades important changes in precipitation and increases in temperature have been observed Land-use changes have intensified the use of natural resources and exacerbated many of the processes of land degradation: Three quarters of the drylands are affected by degradation processes Decrease in natural land cover through climatic and man-made impacts Under future climate change, there is a risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America: Replacement of tropical forest by savannas is expected in eastern Amazonia Replacement of semi-arid vegetation by arid vegetation in parts of north-east Brazil The expected increases in sea-level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas Magrin et al. (2007): Fourth IPCC Report

6. 5 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Likelihood that future summer average temperatures exceed highest summer temperatures observed on record 2040-20602080-2100 Battisti et Naylor (2009): Historical warnings of future food insecurtiy with unprecedented historical heat. Science 323: 240-244

7. 6 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Human security, vulnerability and climate change Vulnerability of people and communities with respect to climate change depends on (1) : Their dependence with respect to ecosystem services The impact of climate change on these ecosystems Adaptation capacities of the communities Capacity to adapt reduces vulnerability: Societies adapt constantly However, what are their limits when considering climate change? Migration is a type of adaptation (1) Barnett & Adger (2007): Climate change, human security and violent conflicts. Political Geography 36:639-655

8. 7 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Environmental migration: estimates Some estimates on environmental migration : 24 millions (UNHCR 2002) 2010: 50 millions (Myers 2005) 2050: 200 millions most often quoted (Stern 2006, IOM 2008) After 2050: up to 700 millions (Christian Aid 2007) Hundreds of millions (Stern, 2009) leading to conflicts

9. 8 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 UNHCR and environmental migration In terms of international governance there is a distinction between international and cross border displacements: Existing legal frameworks already consider internal displacements However some cross-border displacements are not covered by any legal framework Displacement scenarios considered: Hydro-meteorological disasters; Zones designated by governments as being too high-risk; Environmental degradation and slow onset disasters; Sinking small island states; and Armed conflicts triggered by a decrease in essential resources. Guterres (2008): Climate change, natural disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR perspective

10. 9 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Proposed categories Environmental Emergency Migrants (as opposed to Environmental Refugees): People who flee the worst of an environmental impact on a permanent or temporary basis. They have to take refuge to save their lives Environmentally Forced Migrants: People who have to leave to avoid the worst of environmental degradation. The urgency of flight is less Environmentally Motivated Migrants: People who may leave a steadily deteriorating environment to pre- empt the worst

11. 10 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Rapid Onset Hazards (e.g. Floods, Earthquakes) Loss of Ecosystem Services and Slow Onset Hazards Rapid and effective social, economic and physical recovery of impacted areas Migrant does not return to impacted area Slow and ineffective social, economic and physical recovery of impacted areas ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANT ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCY MIGRANT Action of fleeing to save ones life Person migrates away from impacted area Environmental reason for migration decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts, sea-level rise Environmental reason for migration decision not dominant NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANT Accelerated degradation of ecosystems e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion Gradual degradation of ecosystems e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity, sea-level rise ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANT Migrant does not return to impacted area Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area but required significant time No alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area Livelihoods Impacted Land/home destroyed, lost and/or unsafe Impacted area no longer exists ENVIRONMENTAL EVENT Slow onset hazards & Loss of ecosystem services Rapid onset hazards Preliminary definition framework Renaud et al. (2009): A Decision Framework for Environmentally Induced Migration. Submitted to International Migration Journal

12. 11 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Accelerated degradation of ecosystems e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion Loss of Ecosystem Services and Slow Onset Hazards Person migrates away from impacted area Environmental reason for migration decision dominant e.g. reoccurring droughts, sea-level rise Environmental reason for migration decision not dominant NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANT Gradual degradation of ecosystems e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity, sea-level rise ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANT Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area Alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area but required significant time No alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area Livelihoods Impacted Impacted area no longer exists

13. 12 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Figure f. Maps indicating number of people affected (and potentially displaced) under a 1 metre sea-level rise scenario based on current socio-economic and environmental conditions in Viet Nam (Source: Carew-Reid 2007, pp27-28 (modified))

14. 13 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 1 m Sea level rise Amazon Delta Source: CRESIS - http://www.cresis.ku.edu/research/data/sea_level_rise/index.html

15. 14 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Rapid Onset Hazards (e.g. Floods, Earthquakes) Rapid and effective social, economic and physical recovery of impacted areas Migrant does not return to impacted area Slow and ineffective social, economic and physical recovery of impacted areas ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT ENVIRONMENTALLY FORCED MIGRANT ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCY MIGRANT Action of fleeing to save ones life Migrant does not return to impacted area Land/home destroyed, lost and/or unsafe

16. 15 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Example: Rapid onset hazard: slow or blocked recovery 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami – Sri Lanka Severe impact on coastal areas Affected people & livelihoods Destroyed infrastructures & impacted ecosystems Enforcement of buffer zones slowed reconstruction Cause of movement: environmental factor Potential cause of not returning: political factor Yet we consider people to be Environmentally Forced Migrants

17. 16 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 The five-pronged approach: a call for simultaneous actions Science: Better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms (including other push/pull factors) Who migrates, where and when? For creeping processes, identification of crisis tipping points (thresholds) Quantification of migration responses to the impact of environmental degradation Rapid onset vs. creeping processes Scenarios and policies Link migration to adaptation strategies & to environmental and climate change Long term effects of resettlements Cooperation between all stakeholders Source: Renaud, Bogardi, Dun, Warner (2007): Intersction No 5, UNU-EHS Bogardi, Warner (2008): Here comes the flood. Nature 3:9-11

18. 17 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 The five-pronged approach (contd) Awareness: Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness and its social, economic, environmental dimensions Rectify the Northern bias Concept needs to be included in outcome of Copenhagen summit, UNCCD, IPCC Legislation: Establish and implement a framework that recognises environmental migrants to protect adequately individuals displaced by environmental degradation processes Humanitarian aid: Empower the United Nations system and humanitarian organizations to provide aid to environmental migrants Institutional: Establish institutions that are able to assist the flux of environmental migrants

19. 18 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Conclusions Links between global environmental change, human security, migration and/or conflict can be real but: They are not always systematic There is a need for more research in order to establish the multiple causality factors Governance plays a crucial role: Limit causes of conflicts which are often multiple Allow space for traditional conflict resolution mechanisms Facilitate adaptation to environmental change and climate change This can only be achieved through a multi-stakeholder concerted approach (including in the Amazon basin)

20. 19 Encontro Internacional de Direito Ambiental na Amazônia, Macapá, 4-6 March 2009 Thank You Merci Obrigado UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10 D-53113 Bonn, Germany Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0200 Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299 E-Mail: renaud@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu