1. Arguments Sign In! Review Conclusions and Conclusion/Premises
Kinds of Arguments: Deductive, Inductive
Validity, Invalidity, Soundness
For Next Time: Chapter 2 pages 45-56
Comprehensive Homework will be due Monday not Friday

2. Review Claims claims claim
By Now you should be familiar with all six types of claims and be able to identify them
Cognitive Biases: we examined non-conscious ways in which we hastily make judgments of probability, value, moral judgments, character, ourselves, and that even affect how we see the world
Can you think of examples for each of these biases?

3. Arguments: A Primer Mini quiz! What is the definition of argument?
How many parts does an argument have?
What is the relationship between an argument and an issue?

4. Arguments: A Primer
An argument is composed of a set of claims (the premises) that are meant to make another claim (the conclusion) more likely to be true
This means that an argument has two parts: claims that function as premises/evidence and a concluding claim
The conclusion of a premise resolves an issue (a question)

5. Finding the Conclusion
Conclusions can be hard to spot when arguments are not written in an explicit argument structure.
When written in paragraph form the conclusion of an argument can be in the beginning, middle, or end of a series of claims.
Let's take a look at some examples

6. Conclusions
In the examples that follow, identify the premises and the conclusion of the argument
Since all Communists are Marxists, all Marxists are Communists
Let's see...since the clunk comes only when I pedal, the problem must be in the chain, the crank, or the pedals
Since the sky is cloudy it will probably rain today. Since it will probably rain today I will bring an umbrella.

7. Conclusions as Premises
In all of these examples you might have noticed that “since” is used to denote the premises of an argument
The clause that follows “since” is the conclusion:
Since the sky is cloudy, it will probably rain today. Since it will probably rain today, I will bring my umbrella.
The last example is a case where the conclusion goes on to function as a premise for yet another conclusion

8. Premise Markers In view of... Because... X implies Y
In view of your recent excellent performance, we are giving you a raise
Because...
Because the rain has stopped, we should have lunch outside today
X implies Y
The fact that students have been attending regularly implies that they will do well in the course

9. Conclusion Markers Conclusions are also sometimes marked in a text:
Therefore (the most common conclusion marker)
….therefore we should abolish the standard letter grading system
X implies Y
If you have an argument of the form X implies Y, the X is the premise and the Y is the conclusion
The fact that students have been attending regularly implies that they will do well in the course

10. Conclusion Markers (more)
Consequently
We have raised enough money to erase our budget deficit, consequently we do not have to make serious cuts to the budget
Hence
We have met all of our monthly sales quotas for the year hence we should all be getting big bonuses
This shows/suggests/proves that
These markers work just like X implies Y. They tell you both the premise AND the conclusion.

11. Examples (future quiz questions)
Identify the premises and the conclusion of the following argument:
University budgets have been cut by 30% in order to balance the state budget. As a further effort to balance budgets, universities have imposed hiring freezes. But a budget gap remains. The only thing left for universities to do in order to balance their own budgets is to raise the cost of tuition and other fees. Because of that, it is likely that fees will go up for students.

12. An Example
1. University budgets have been cut by 30% in order to balance the larger state budget
2.Universities have imposed a hiring freeze to balance the state budget
3. The only other way for a university to balance the budget is to raise student tuition
4.The budget remains unbalanced
5. :. Student tuition costs will rise

13. Deductive, Inductive, Valid, Invalid, Sound, Unsound
There are two basic kinds of argument forms that we will talk about in this course:
Inductive
Deductive
The difference between the two can be found in the relationship between the premises and the conclusion
Let's take a look at some of these differences now

14. Deductive Arguments
A deductive argument proves its conclusion. All deductive arguments aim for validity and soundness
Validity: an argument is valid iff it is impossible for the premises of the argument to be true and for the conclusion to be false
Soundness: A sound argument is a valid argument whose premises are true
Let's see what these differences amount to

15. Examples 1. All dogs are mammals 2. Some dogs are tiny
3. :. Some mammals are tiny
1. You have studied very hard for the exam
2. You answered all of the practice questions correctly.
3. :. You will get an A on the exam

16. Examples
1. If Personal identity exists then it is either bodily identity or continuity of memories
2. Personal identity cannot be bodily identity because our identities survive transformations of our bodies
3. Personal identity cannot be continuity of memory because we don't remember being 1 year old but we are the same person as the 1 year old
4. :. Personal identity does not exist

17. Inductive Arguments
Unlike a deductive argument, inductive arguments do not prove their conclusions. Instead they support their conclusions
If the premises of an inductive argument are true then the conclusion is more likely (maybe even nearly certain) to be true
If you make the premises of an argument true and it is still possible for the conclusion to be false then it is not deductive.

18. Examples 1. The barometer has dropped 2. Dark clouds are forming
3. I see many people in overcoats and carrying umbrellas
4. :. It is going to rain soon
1. All dogs are mammals
2. Some mammals are German Shepherds
3. :. Some dogs are German Shepherds

19. For Friday
Read: Chapter 2 pages 45-56
Quiz in class
No Homework Due