1. Rights and Responsibilities of Citizenship
Module 7.3: Voter Turnout

2. Voter Turnout: The Challenge of Legitimacy
Why do people vote?
Benefit of citizenship
Civic duty
Family tradition
Salience of issues
Stake in outcome
Media exposure
Why don’t people vote?
Apathy
Disaffection
Rational Ignorance
Inconvenience
Ineligibility

3. The 50% Voter Turnout Hypothesis
About 50% of total population eligible to vote
50% of eligible voters actually register
50% of registered turnout in Leap Year November elections
50% of Leap Year voters turnout in Even Year elections
50% of Even Year voters turnout in Odd Year November elections
50% of Odd Year voters turnout in May elections in any year

4. The 50% Voter Turnout Hypothesis
300,000,000 in US; 150,000,000 eligible to vote
75,000,000 register
37,500,000 vote in Leap Year November
18,750,000 vote in Even Year November
9,375,000 vote in Odd Year November
4,687,500 vote in May elections in any year

5. What would this mean locally?
Dallas County Population: 2,368,139 (2010 Census); 1,184,069 eligible to vote (50% of total)
592,035 register (50% of eligible)
296,017 vote in Leap Year November elections (25% of eligible)
148,009 vote in Even Year November elections (12.5% of eligible)
74,004 vote in Odd Year November elections (6.25% of eligible)
37,002 vote in May elections in any year (3.125% of eligible)

6. Testing The 50% Hypothesis
Dallas County eligible voters: 1,184,069
Registered Voters: 592,035
Ballots cast November 2011: 74,004
Ballots cast May of any year: 37,002
Actual Data (Source: dalcoelections.org)
Dallas County Population: 2,368,139
Registered Voters:  1,100,479
Ballots Cast November 2011:  38,526
Voter Turnout:  3.50 %
Actual data consistent with May turnout prediction

7. Dallas County Turnout, 2000-2011
2008 General
2004 General
2000 General
2002 General
2010 General
2006 General
(Source: dalcoelections.org)
Results of 50% hypothesis test for Dallas County:
Accurately predicts turnout peaks at November of even years
Consistently overestimates turnout in November odd-year elections
Underestimates Dallas County turnout in most elections
Generally does not hold for odd-year elections
Generally does not hold for summer elections