1. An Introduction to Climate Change
Training on CC & DRR
City, Month Year
Name, Organisation
[Source Picture:
Example country used in this presentation is Uganda

2. Overview What is Climate Change Causes of Climate Change
Observed Climate Changes
Impacts of Climate Change
Fighting Climate Change
(Inter-)national Policy
Summary

3. 1. What is Climate Change

4. Terms & definitions
Weather: Day-to-day variation of temperature, humidity, air movements Climate: Long-term averages of temperature, humidity, air movements (over decades) Climate change: long-term change in the climatic system arising from either human activity (and/or natural causes)
(Climate: over some period, usually 30 years)
Climate change: Long term changes
[Source:
[Source Figure I:
[Source Figure II:
[Source Figure III:

5. Examples
A storm or a hot day? Are weather-related events Increasing occurrence of storms/heat over several decades? Are changes in the climate might due to climate change 
A storm or a hot day ?
Are themselves not a change of climate, but weather-related events.
Increasing occurrence of storms or heat over several decades?
They are a change in the (local) climate and might be due to climate change

6. 2. Causes of Climate Change

7. Greenhouse Effect
Sun
The Earth receives energy from the Sun in form of visible light
Some of the energy is reflected back into space from the atmosphere
Earth is absorbs some of the solar radiation and is heated
Earth loses energy in the form of invisible, thermal radiation (heat) to space
Greenhouse gases block some of the infrared radiation from escaping to space
Thus heating the lower atmosphere and the surface of the Earth through reemitting the radiation in all directions
One can think of greenhouse gases as a blanket that you use during the night to keep the body from cooling.
Adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere corresponds to using a thicker blanket, with the consequence that your body heats up.

8. Greenhouse Gas Sources
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change
These activities include
- Burning fossil fuels (Transport, production)
- Agriculture
- Deforestation
- Land degradation
- others
In the atmosphere these gases spread out globally, accumulate, and warm the atmosphere and surface of the Earth
Greenhouse gases:
Water vapor
Most important GHG
Occurs naturally
Without water vapor, the earth would be frozen
Carbon dioxide (CO2, serving as a reference)
methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (Lachgas, N2O)

9. Worldwide GHG emissions by sector in 2010
Electricity and Heat Production: The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use: GHG emissions from this sector come mostly from agriculture (cultivation of crops and livestock) and deforestation (forest fires).
Buildings: GHG emissions from this sector arise from onsite energy generation and burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes.
Transportation: GHG emissions from this sector primarily involve fossil fuels burned for road, rail, air, and marine transportation. Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy comes from petroleum-based fuels, largely gasoline and diesel.
Industry: GHG emissions from industry primarily involve fossil fuels burned on site at facilities for energy. This sector also includes emissions from chemical, metallurgical, and mineral transformation processes not associated with energy consumption and emissions from waste management activities.
Other Energy: This source of greenhouse gas emissions refers to all emissions from the Energy sector which are not directly associated with electricity or heat production, such as fuel extraction, refining, processing, and transportation.
[Source: IPCC 2014]
[Source Photo:

10. 3. Observed Climate Changes

11. Changes in temperature and sea level
Global land and ocean surface temperatures increased by 0.85°C ( )
Global mean sea level rose by 19 cm ( )
Temperature:
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
Figure (a) Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 1880 to 2012 from three data sets
Anomalies are relative to the mean of 1961−1990.
Sea level rise:
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence).
Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m
A faster rate will continue in the 21st century that the one observed from
For the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, the rise will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.82
Sea level rise will not be uniform across regions.
About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience a sea level change within ±20% of the global mean by the end of the 21st century
[Source: IPCC 4th assessment report]
Figure (b) global mean sea level relative to the 1900–1905 mean of the longest running dataset, and with all datasets aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first year of satellite altimetry data. All time-series (colored lines indicating different data sets) show annual values, and where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured shading
Source:

12. Changes in precipitation
Changes will not be uniform
High latitudes and equatorial Pacific will experience an increase in mean annual precipitation
Likely decrease in mid-latitude and subtropical dry regions
Extreme precipitation events over mid-latitude land masses and wet tropical regions will likely become more intense and frequent
[Source: IPCC 4th assessment report]
Photo:
change in average precipitation based on multi-model mean projections for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP2.6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right) scenarios

13. Example: Uganda’s changes in precipitation
No overall long-term trend
Point to a small increase in annual precipitation
Especially at the western shore of lake Victoria
Shift in timing of peak seasons, the magnitude & intensity
Recent regional study:
Increase during wet seasons & reduction during dry seasons
studies are not consistent
no overall long-term trend
Overall trends seem to point to a small increase in annual precipitation in Uganda
Also for the future
Studies show that most of the increase in rainfall will be at the western shore of lake Victoria and the central western part of Uganda
shift in timing of peak seasons and in the magnitude and intensity of precipitation
decline in rainfall during the March to May season at a regional scale
Recent regional study:
climate change is likely to increase precipitation in the area by 10-20% received during the wet seasons, resulting in higher stream flow, and a reduction of 20-40% of precipitation during the dry seasons
[Source: CC & DR guide]

14. Example: Uganda’s changes of extreme events
Droughts
Northeastern Karamoja region
Floods
Effecting less people than droughts
Increase in runoff
Landslides
increased frequency of droughts in recent years = extreme heat waves
were more pronounced in western and north eastern parts of Uganda
northeastern Karamoja region has been most affected
Floods have even been far more frequent, occurring almost every year in the last decades = extreme amount of precipitation
But effecting less people than droughts
Heavy rain events are projected to increase up to 14% until the 2060s
Increase in runoff
Landslides are of raising concern
 more frequent and intense extreme weather and climate events
[Source: CC & DR guide]
 more frequent and intense extreme events

15. Changes of extreme events
Tropical storms
Heat waves
Wildfires
Cyclones
Hurricanes
Tornados
Storms:
Has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.
These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms
The recent increases in activity are linked, in part, to higher sea surface temperatures in the region
[Source:
Heat waves:
Human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations
Increased in Europe, Asia and Australia
Wildfires:
Hotter = drier = more wildfires
Extensive studies have found that large forest fires in the western US have been occurring nearly five times more often since the 1970s and 80s
seasons with higher wildfire potential - has universally become longer over the past 40 years
Projections by the UCS suggest that wildfires could get four, five and even six times as bad as they currently are within this century
[Source:

16. Changes of snow coverage
Glaciers
Arctic ice cap
Antarctic sea ice
Spring snow coverage
 Contribution to sea level rise
Glacier Picture:
1. Photo: Morteratsch-glacier in Switzerland: has decreased from 1900 to 2010 over 2 km
Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence)
Over the last two decades, the Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass (high confidence)
a shorter ice-forming season, because of the warming temperature
 contributing to sea level rise
[Source: IPCC]

17. Changes in ocean temperature
Upper ocean warming (0-700m) warmed by 0.11°C per decade ( )
Ocean acidification due to absorbed CO2: decreasing pH by 0.1 since the begining of the industrial era
Ocean warming
Photo: change in global mean upper ocean (0–700 m) heat content aligned to 2006−2010, and relative to the mean of all datasets for 1970;
More than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (0–700 m) during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010,
It is very likely that regions of high salinity where evaporation dominates have become more saline
while regions of low salinity where precipitation dominates have become fresher since the 1950s.
Ocean acidification:
ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification
Ocean acidification is quantified by decreases in pH13.
The pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era (high confidence), corresponding to a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration.
[Source: IPCC 2013: WG1,

18. 4. Impacts of Climate Change

19. Climate Risk Index
Countries most affected by extreme weather events

20. Changes in agricultural productivity 2080
Loss of agricultural productivity in low latitudes: food shortages
Map combines three emission scenarios across five global climate models to the year 2050
Projected percentage change in yields of eleven major crops:
Wheat, rice, maize, millet, field pea, sugar beet, sweet potato, soybean, groundnut, sunflower and rapeseed
Under current agricultural practices and crop varieties
(measured in kg yield of the respective crop per hectare)
[Source:

21. Regions vulnerable to sea level rise
Earth with a sea level rise of 6 meters to emphasize regions near sea level that could potentially be vulnerable to sea level rise
sea level rise during the twenty-first century is likely to be a significant problem only for a limited number of highly vulnerable localities.
[Source: credit Photo: NASA]
Outcomes:
Flooding
Contamination of drinking water and soil
Salinization of crops
Damaging/reducing of animal habitat
Hurts the tourism/economy
Houses, villages, Islands are being washed away  relocation
[Source:
Coastal areas are seasonal flooded or lost

22. Loss of biodiversity by 2050
Loss of Biodiversity with continued agricultural expansion, pollution, climate change and infrastructure development
 Notice: Not only climate change is a driving factor!!!
[Source: 7f197eafd_o.jpg /
Uganda:
Every three degrees Celsius rise in temperature, there is a northward shift in vegetation of 250 km
Disappearance of medicinal plant species has already been reported
Dry conditions and prolonged droughts frequently lead to outbreaks of fire that degrade forests
[Source: CC & DR guide]

23. Change in water availability by 2050
The contribution of climate change to declining water availability.
The real concern for the future, in the context of changing patterns of rainfall, is the decrease of run-off water which may put at risk large areas of arable land.
The map shows how seriously this issue must be taken, while the forecast indicates that some of the richest arable regions (Europe, United States, parts of Brazil, southern Africa) are threatened with a significant reduction of run-off water, resulting in a lack of water for rain-fed agriculture and thus putting millions at risks.
[Source:
Change in water availability: increased shortages in already dry areas

24. Climate change and malaria by 2050
With climate conditions changing in the future, conditions for pests also change.
The primary Malaria agent, the falciparum malaria parasite, will be able to spread into new areas, as displayed in this map, by 2050 using the Hadley CM2 high scenario.
Other areas, not displayed in the map, will be uninhabitable by the parasite, and thus free of the pest.
[Source:
Impacts on health through spreading of infectious diseases, water stress, heat waves...

25. Health impacts Shifts in spread of diseases Higher temperatures
Pollution of drinking water
Outbreak of waterborne diseases
Floods
Weak infrastructure of health services
Low quality of medical care
Extreme events
- Increased temperatures and heavy rainfall can result in shifts in the spread of diseases like malaria or sleeping sickness
Originally malaria-free belts, particularly in higher altitude regions the populations are newly exposed to high infection rates, morbidity and mortality.
malaria has been identified as the most serious killer disease accounting for about 50% of out-patient’s visits
Floods = pollution problems to sources of drinking water
danger of outbreaks of cholera and other waterborne diseases (diarrhea, etc.)
Extreme weather and climate events can weaken the infrastructure of health services
Can lead to a decrease in quality of medical care
Additionally, extreme weather events are leading to food crop losses and food insecurity, resulting in malnutrition and famine
[Source: CC & DR guide]

26. Agricultural impacts Loss of land, crops, livestock
Lower fish yields & reduced spawning
Increase in livestock/crop diseases
Damage on infrastructure
Displacement
Low production & food insecurity
High food prices
Crops shift to higher/different altitudes
Expand suitable livestock areas
losses of agricultural land, crops and livestock
Through water shortage
Through higher temperature, droughts
Through soil erosion, landslides and land degradation through heavy rainfall
High temperatures & droughts result in lower water levels in lakes which can lead to lower fish yields and reduced spawning, leading to severe food shortage
Increase in livestock diseases
Through warmer temperatures
Infrastructural damage
Displacement
Low production of milk, food insecurity, increased food prices and generally negative effects on the economy
Crops shift to higher altitudes
Conditions can become unsuitable for certain crops
Changes in average rainfall may increase or decrease yields and expand areas suitable for livestock
[Source: CC & DR guide]

27. Impacts on water sources
Streams drying up
Water scarcity
Ethnic conflicts
Movements out of districts
Streams, which a large proportion of the population depends upon, tend to dry up during droughts causing serious stress for a large proportion of the rural communities.
The scarcity of water in such areas has resulted in movements into neighboring districts in search for pasture and water.
These movements have frequently led to ethnic conflicts and disruption of production, affecting the development of these communities.
The water scarcity in the dry land areas is likely to worsen with climate change
Heavy rainfall leading to floods and landslides, complicates water management and is likely to affect, the availability and the quality of water, as well as the life, property and infrastructure of people
[Source: CC & DR guide]
 Heavy rainfall, floods and rainfall complicate water management

28. 5. Fighting Climate Change

29. Mitigation Adaptation Fight the causes Reduce GHG emissions
Long term strategies
International policy / global level
Adaptation
Adjust human systems to changing conditions
Control of symptoms
Local strategies
Short & long term strategies
More information given during further presentations of the workshop this week

30. 6. (Inter-)national Climate Change Policy

31. International Framework
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC in Rio (1992): States goal for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations
Kyoto Protocol (1997): Reduction targets for industrialised countries until 2012
Paris Agreement (2015): Keep climate change well below 2°C, carbon neutrality
The birth of the UNFCCC- Rio 1992
Start of international political response to climate change
Sets out framework for action aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHG to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate system
A frameowork convention for further negotiations
198 states signed, including U.S.
[Read the convention at
The Kyoto Protocol (COP 3)- 1997
COP 3 = third session of the Conference of the Parties
Protocol commits industrialized countries & countries in transition to a market economy to achieve emission reduction targets
Reduce emissions on average by 5.2% compared to 1990 level between 2008 and 2012
Specific targets vary from country to country
Makes a difference between developed and developing countries: no obigations for developing countries
Entered into force 2005 and first commitment period ended in 2012
193 parties signed, U.S. Did not sign
Source: [CC & DR guide]
Paris Agreement 2015
COP 21 in France in 2015
Achieve a binding & universal agreement on climate
Brings all nations into common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change & adapt to effects
Enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so
Aim to strengthen global response to CC by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5
aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change
appropriate financial flows, a new technology framework and an enhanced capacity building framework will be put in place,
requires all Parties to put forward their best efforts through nationally determined contributions (NDCs) & intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs)
requirements that all parties report regularly on their emissions and on their implementation efforts
Entered into force in Nov and has 180 parties up to this date

32. Example: Uganda’s National Policy
Ratified UNFCCC, Kyoto-Protocol and Paris Agreement
National Development Plan (NDP)
Overall national framework
Strategies/interventions addressing climate change
Intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs)
Showing post-2020 intended climate actions
Priority is adaptation to reduce vulnerability
Also mitigation to reduce GHG emissions
Help of international support needed
Uganda ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993, the Kyoto-Protocol in 2005 and the Paris Agreement in 2016
[Source: CC & DR guide]
Two National Development Plan (NDP):
are Uganda’s overall national framework that guides planning for all development sectors in the country
also identifies strategies and interventions to address the effects of climate change
makes a number of environmentally friendly proposals intended to promote sustainable development
mitigation policies will be practiced
Intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs):
As a part of Paris Agreement in 2015
to show their intended post-2020 climate actions
Priority on adaptation to reduce the countries high vulnerability
especially in the agricultural, forestry, infrastructural, water, energy and health sector
specific adaptation measures include:
expanding of crop and livestock diversification
sustained forest restoration
improving water catchment protection
promoting renewable energy
early warning systems for disease outbreaks
Mitigation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions until 2030 is applied through several policies:
in the energy supply, forestry and wetland sectors
e.g. increasing renewable electricity generation, forest law enforcement, afforestation and wetland conservation
focus on the protection of vulnerable groups (e.g. women) to apply gender-responsive and human rights actions
also proposes plans to promote and enhance:
climate change education and research
public awareness
transfer and diffusion of climate technology
Implementation of the INDCs relies on the help of international support, since the national sources can only cover for approximately 30% of the costs

33. 7. Summary

34. Increased concentration of
Overview
Temperatures rising
Sea level rising
Ice melting
Rainfall patterns changing
Intensifying of extreme events
Increased concentration of
GHG in Atmosphere
causing X
Adaptation
GHG Emission
leading to X
Mitigation
Human activities:
Burning fossil fuels
Cutting down forests
Unsustainable agriculture
Decreasing crop yields
Increased water stress
Health issues
Costal erosion
Loss of biodiversity
Infrastructural damage
Emissions stay in atmosphere for over hundred years, therefore
Emissions need to come down rapidly to avoid the unmanageable
=> Mitigation: Fight the causes
Reduce GHG emissions
Due to past emissions change will continue in any case, so we have to manage the unavoidable
=> Adaptation: Adjust human systems to changing conditions.

35. Climate Change … …is long-term variation in climatic variables
…is real and fast
…is caused by GHG emissions from human activities
…causes heavy and increasing impacts
…demands both mitigation and adaptation
Is long-term variation in climatic variables
such as temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, etc.

36. Attention
!!!
Not all environmental problems / risks are caused by climate change
A lot of the destruction of nature is caused by local phenomena. In order to solve a problem, one has to carefully analyse its causes.
Important: Distinguish Greenhouse Gases from other Emissions (toxic fumes, particles)

37. Name Organisation Email
Thank you for your attention!
Name Organisation