1. Sensitivity to immunity parameters.
Sensitivity to immunity parameters. Sensitivity of pneumococcal disease cases, including non-severe and severe pneumococcal pneumonia, pneumococcal meningitis and other invasive pneumococcal infections, to immunity parameters over 5000 bootstrap samples. Panel (A) shows estimated cases averted per year for each parameter set. It is calculated by subtracting the median cases in scenario 1 and median cases in scenario 2 from the median cases in the no-vaccination scenario for each bootstrap sample. Dots and triangles are the predictions and line ranges are the 95% CIs. The other panels show serotype replacement over time; plotted values are the medians for each year. Panel (B) shows the per cent reduction in vaccine type cases of pneumococcal disease and (C) the per cent increase in non-vaccine-type pneumococcal cases after the introduction of PCV13% to 90% of the population (scenario 2). ϵ: Serotype-independent immunity shape parameter (see equation 4). σ: Anticapsular (serotype-specific) immunity parameter (see equation 1). DPT, diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus; PCV, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.
Itamar Megiddo et al. BMJ Glob Health 2018;3:e000636
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