1. Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University

2. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 2 New Markets (000s of new vehicles)

3. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 3 CO2 in our atmosphere (800-2000)

4. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 4 CO 2 Global warming V Kyoto Protocol V EU Commitment V EU: ACEA-EC agreement:,SO…

5. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 5 EU Car sector response Voluntary reductions from 1995-2004 by a number of manufacturers, incl. Volvo ACEA-EC agreement: –intro of 3 litre cars (<100g/km) by 2000 –2008: average 140g/km –2012: average 120g/km (proposed) Also followed by JAMA (Japan), KAMA (Korea) (1995 EU fleet average: 170g/km)

6. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 6 How do you reduce CO2? Improve fuel consumption - increase powertrain efficiency; reduce weight use non-carbon or lower-carbon alternative fuels (e.g. H 2 ; CNG, LPG) use carbon-neutral fuels (e.g.ethanol, biodiesel) reduce total miles driven

7. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 7 CO2 Winners 140g cars: –Fiat Panda (all) –Fiat Punto 1.2 8v –Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98 –Merc A Class 170CDI –MINI One 1.4D –Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi –Renault Scenic 1.5dCI –Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel –VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD 120g cars: –Audi A21.4TDi –Citroen C2/C3 Hdi –Honda Civic IMA –Peugeot 206 1.4HDi –Renault Megane 1.5dCI –Smart ForTwo Coupe(all) –Toyota Prius –VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD

8. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 8 Average new car CO2 emissions (2005)

9. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 9 UK CO 2 -based road tax regime CO 2 -based company car taxation system Incentives for alternative fuel vehicles Fuel price escalator (dropped 2000)

10. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 10 UK Segmentation change 1994-2003

11. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 11 UK new car CO2 emissions 1997-2005 + China 2005 (source: SMMT, BRASS)

12. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 12 China: Forecast car growth 2005-2030 (source: BRASS)

13. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 13 China – suggested policy/technology options (Zhengzheng 2006) Encourage small cars Encourage diesel cars Encourage alternative fuels and powertrain New incentives: –Reduction of consumption tax on small cars (< 1000cc) from 3% to 1% –Increase in consumption tax for large vehicles (> 3000cc) from 8% to 14%-20% –Reduced parking charges for small cars –Lift all restrictions on use of small cars (e.g. Guangzhou)

14. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 14 Minicars Japanese kei cars: –3.4mx1.48mx2m –max 660cc Korean minicars (800cc) European small car tradition –Encouraged by taxation regimes –Including sub-cars

15. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 15 Diesel Cars 25% - 30% lower CO2 emissions than petrol for same engine size However higher carbon content per litre Diesel is lean-burn hence produces higher NOx emissions than modern petrol Also higher PM emissions – carcinogenic Most of the EU reduction in vehicle CO2 emissions has been achieved by a shift from petrol to diesel

16. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 16 Diesel cars (in red) 140g cars: –Fiat Panda (all) –Fiat Punto 1.2 8v –Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98 –Merc A Class 170CDI –MINI One 1.4D –Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi –Renault Scenic 1.5dCI –Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel –VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD 120g cars: –Audi A21.4TDi –Citroen C2/C3 Hdi –Honda Civic IMA –Peugeot 206 1.4HDi –Renault Megane 1.5dCI –Smart ForTwo Coupe(all) –Toyota Prius –VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD

17. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 17 Alternative Fuels/Powertrain Alternative fuels –Can be used in existing IC engines with no or minor modification –Low impact on car makers –Potentially carbon neutral –E.g.: CNG, LNG, LPG, biodiesel, bioethanol Alternative Powertrain –Alternatives to IC –High impact on car makers –E.g.: fuel cells, hybrid-electric?

18. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 18

19. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 19 Alternatives for China? China needs crops to feed its people, not its cars China could only make H2 from coal (some hydro, a bit of oil); which would need carbon sequestration So these do not solve its immediate problems

20. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 20 …or hybrid IC-electric: e.g. Toyota Prius now made in China

21. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 21 China: CO2 reduction scenarios

22. Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006 22 Conclusion Although all technologies considered improve on the baseline Hybrid-electric has the greatest impact …or possibly a diesel-electric hybrid powertrain fitted to a minicar!