1. Session 2.4. Step 1: Formulating Assumptions
TST
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

2. Learning Objectives
By the end of this session, participants should be able to:
Identify the key assumptions that must be formulated at the start of the trader survey design process (i.e. population characteristics, market & availability characteristics, potential shock impacts, and potential response options)
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

3. Nine Principles guide “The Four Step Approach”
Step 1: Formulation of assumptions
Step 2: Establishing field survey parameters
Step 3: Elaboration of a survey plan, questionnaires and training
Step 4: Supervision, analysis and reporting
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Conducting a Trader Survey

4. Trader Survey Training
Step 1: Formulation of assumptions
Step 1.b.
Potential impacts of the shock
Step 1.a.
Step 1.d.
Step 1.c.
Population characteristics
Market & availability characteristics
Potential response options
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

5. Population characteristics
Step 1.a.
Population characteristics
List the affected areas, population data and food insecurity levels:
Describe the livelihood groups and activities:
List the key items the households purchase and sell:
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

6. Market & Availability Characteristics
Step 1.b.
Market & Availability Characteristics
Complete the table with deficit and surplus zones:
Draw the cropping and marketing seasons, example:
Elaborate (hand-drawn) maps of flows of the selected market chains
Draw diagrams of selected market chains
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

7. Potential impacts of the shock
Step 1.c.
Potential impacts of the shock
Describe the shock, describe the impact in table 5
On basis of table 3, select key market chains and predict impact of shock
Table 7 – Note how main livelihood groups will react to shock & market chain impacts
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

8. Trader Survey Training
Step 1.d.
Potential response options
With the Assessment Team:
Discuss pros & cons of possible response options
Identify potential information gaps that may need to be included in the survey
e.g., knowing a voucher programme is a possibility, a visit to participating traders to assess their capacity to handle vouchers may be warranted
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

9. Exercise 2.4. Trade Rupture!
Background: A natural disaster in a neighbouring country has lead to a full- stop of trade with this country (disregard other consequences). Our country is no longer able to import basic foods from neighbouring, food surplus- country; our exports to the neighbouring country have come to complete stop.
Step 1.a. Population Characteristics: Which areas & livelihood groups will likely be made more food insecure by this shock?
Step 1.b. Market & Availability Characteristics: Which areas are likely food deficit zones at this moment? Which are food surplus?
Step 1.c. Potential Impacts of the Shock: Which market chains are likely most impacted by the rupture?
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training

10. Trader Survey Training
Wrap-up
For all FS, nutrition or HH surveys, first step is to formulate assumptions” – assemble basic data via secondary data review and primary data collection
Assumptions regarding population characteristics & relationship of HHs to markets essential for all analysis team members (HH survey and TS)
TS basic data & assumptions include:
population covered by FS analysis
their FS status
market functioning;
relationships of HHs to market
type & magnitude of the (expected) shock and impacts.
possible response strategies (to identify key analysis concerns)
WFP Markets Learning Programme
Trader Survey Training