1. Poverty overshadowed: the Belgian case
European sociale conference
Workshop on national reform programs
Brussels, 19th of September 2011
Chris Serroyen – Head research department
Christian Trade Union Confederation of Belgium
5/10/2019

2. OUTLINE Social and economic situation in Belgium Preparation of the national reform program National program European recommendations Further debate

3. Social and economic situation
Also Belgium was severely hit by the finincial markets
But effects on labor markets and society were moderated:
automatic stabilizers: indexation, minimum wages, employment protection, temporay unemployment blue collar workers, progressive taxes, …
central agreement : indexation euro for employees; real increases for social benefits

4. Social and economic situation
recovery plan + new crisis measures (esp. temporary unemployment for white collar workers)
fiscal pathway to reduce deficit/debt (zero deficit in 2015) postponed painful measures to
Sooner exit out of the crisis: economic growth since 2008 stronger than in Germany: %
% (?)

5. Social and economic situation
Unemployment (Eurostat)
Belgium: 7.5%
Germany: 6.1%
France: 9.9%
Netherlands: 4.3%
EU27: 9.5%
EU15 (Eurozone): 9.5%

6. Social and economic situation
Poverty and exclusion (SILC)
Parameter (%)
2005
2007
2009 B
EU16
Income poverty
14.8
15.2
16.1
14.6
15.9
Material deprivation
6.5
5.6
5.7
5.3
5.2
No jobs
15.1
9.6
13.8
12.3
8.9
Total
22.6
21.3
21.6
21.7
20.2
21.1

7. Social and economic situation
Concentration of poverty

8. Social and economic situation
Income inequality
Statistical problems:
federal administration: worsening (based on fiscal data)
OECD: improving (manipulation of data)

10. Preparation EU 2020
Three official contacts (preparation of the draft, preparation of the final programm, final programma), with:
National Labour Council
Central Economic Council
Federal Council for Sustainable Development

11. Preparation EU 2020 Formal exercise, without real interaction!
Involvement anti-poverty organizations and social partners department Social Emancipation
Problems:
difficult cooperation with Regions and Communities (disturbed by the political tensions)
caretaker government (no real commitments possible)

12. Preparation EU 2020
Platform text civil society (on the initiative of ACV/CSC and BAPN)
Highlights (in general)
balanced objectives
precise, unambiguous objectives
not only objectives, but also tools/actions
not only objectives for 2020, but also intermediate objectives
regional objectives
additional objectives for each main objective

13. Preparation EU 2020 Highlights (concerning poverty and exclusion):
(= reduction with 17%) as an absolute minimum
additional objectives:
administration: child poverty, debt problems, households without work
platform: inequality (Gini), income poverty , working poor, energy precariousness
social policy is more than poverty reduction
maintaining open coordination method for social policy

14. Preparation EU 2020 National program Actual situation 2020 EU-target
Employment rate
67.6%
73.2%
75%
Innovation
1.96% BBP
3% BBP
Unqualified school leavers
11.7%
9.5%
10%
Tertiary education
43.2%
47%
40%
Poverty and exclusion
(-17.3%)
(-17%)
Energy/climate
p.m.

15. Preparation EU 2020 Remarks:
17.3 %-target for poverty and exclusion is rather ambitious: other countries don’t have a general target or have weaker targets (from CZ = 1.9% to FI = 16.5%); exception: LT: 18.3%
additional objectives administration: postponed
additional objectives platform: no response
no actions
quid regional and intermediate targets?

16. EU recommendations
accelerate correction of fiscal deficit (below 3% in 2012), mainly on expenditure side
preventing early exit of labor market
link statutory retirement age to life expectancy
finalize restructuring of banks
reform the system of wage bargaining and indexation

17. EU recommendations
6. reduction high tax and social security for the low paid
shift tax burden from labor to consumption + more environmental friendly taxation$
target measures at older workers and vulnerable groups
boost competition

18. Fiscal policy (announcements)
Proposals for a new federal government (Di Rupo)
preventing early exit
lowering unemployment benefits for long term unemployed (minimum lower than European poverty thresholds)

19. Fiscal policy (announcements)
less assimilated periods for pensions
less budget (60%) for the bi-annual improvements of social benefits At the other hand: new taxes, esp. on capital (incomes)

20. Further approach ACV/CSC
no opposition to the fiscal pathway (3% in 2012 and zero deficit in 2015)
shared responsibility of all policy levels
first and foremost deficit reduction at the income side

21. Further approach strongest shoulders – strongest efforts
protection of the weakest (no reduction of social benefits)
reduction of poverty ànd inequality as a first priority

22. The worst has yet to come?
turbulences on financial markets
economic governance: sixpack, scoreboard, dominance of Ecofin
further concretization of “flexicurity” and trend to more precarious work
weakening of the open method of coordination (or concentration on poverty reduction?)
growing pressure on national wage standards (esp. for foreign workers/companies)
uncontrolled increase of “social fraud”