1. Implications, adaptations & policies for economic development
Presented by
Johann Bell

2. Authors
This presentation is based on Chapters 12 and 13 in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.

3. Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

4. Outline Revisit changes in tuna distribution
Implications for government revenue and GDP
Framework for adaptations
Win-win adaptations
Supporting policies

5. Projected changes in skipjack tuna
Future distributions of tuna are likely to resemble those during El Nino events today
Skipjack tuna
Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)

6. Projected changes in skipjack tuna
Change in catch relative to
from SEAPODYM model
2000
East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE)
2035
2050
2100
+35-40%
+40-45%
+25-30%
West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW)
2035
2050
2100
~ +10%
Negligible
~ -20%
2050
2050
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)

7. Implications of altered skipjack catch
General trends for Government revenue and GDP
West
East
2035
2050
2100
Negligible

8. Implications
Countries with greatest dependency on tuna should receive additional benefits!
Countries in the east could be in a stronger position to negotiate increased licence fees from DWFNs in the surface fishery

9. Implications
Risks occur mainly in countries where tuna makes a relatively low contribution to economic development (due to the large size of their economies) but where tuna processing provides many jobs
Countries in the west may need to source more fish for canning operations from outside their EEZs

10. Implications of altered skipjack catch
Projected changes to gov’t revenue and GDP available in SPC Policy Brief 15
Copy of front page of Policy Brief 15 to be added

11. Caution! Preliminary results
It is the trends that are important, not the percentage increase
As models improve, estimated changes in catch will be more precise

12. Future distribution of bigeye tuna
Change in catch relative to
from SEAPODYM model
2000
2000
East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE)
2035
2050
2100
< + 5%
-5%
-20%
2050
West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW)
2035
2050
2100
< - 5%
-10%
-30%
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)

13. Implications of altered bigeye catch
General trends for national longline fishing and local processing opportunities
West
East
2035
2050
2100
Fiji
2035
2050
2100 +1 -1

14. Adaptations and policies
Practical adaptations and policies are needed to:
Harness the opportunities for increased revenue for countries in the east
Reduce the risk of difficulties in supplying fish for canneries in the west (and job losses)

15. Adaptation decision framework
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss
Long-term Gain
Lose-Lose X
Lose-Win
Win-Win x
Near-term Loss
Addresses present drivers
Win-Lose
Near-term Gain
After Grafton (2010)

16. ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Cap and trade provisions of VDS enable all PNA members to receive some benefits during ENSO events, regardless of where tuna are concentrated
La Niña
Ask
El Niño
Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1977)

17. ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Adaptations
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets
Allocation of vessel days is adjusted regularly
Ask
2050 S
2100
Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)

18. Adaptations Develop and maintain trade preferences
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Develop and maintain trade preferences
Global sourcing provisions of EPA with EU assists countries obtain and export fish
Helps ensure viable industries as tuna move east
Another way of using the tuna resource that does not create any conflict with local fishermen is to provide Fish Aggregation Devices which attract schools of oceanic fish making them easier for small scale fishermen to find and catch them. These have been promoted in the region for many years. The problem is that they do not last for ever – they need to be maintained and replaced periodically. There a need for Government fisheries agencies to build this into their work programmes and budgets
Photo: Peter Sharples

19. Adaptations Immediate conservation measures for tuna
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Immediate conservation measures for tuna
Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and preventing overfishing of other tuna, will:
maintain stocks at healthy levels
make these valuable species more resilient to climate change
Bigeye tuna

20. Adaptations Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels
L-W
W-W
L-L
W-L
Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels
Addresses likelihood of near-term rises in fuel costs
Assists national fleets from west to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries
Another way of using the tuna resource that does not create any conflict with local fishermen is to provide Fish Aggregation Devices which attract schools of oceanic fish making them easier for small scale fishermen to find and catch them. These have been promoted in the region for many years. The problem is that they do not last for ever – they need to be maintained and replaced periodically. There a need for Government fisheries agencies to build this into their work programmes and budgets
Photo: Bruno Leroy

21. Other adaptations
Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in the cyclone belt
Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent inundation by rising sea levels and more severe cyclones

22. Suggested supporting policies
Promote access agreements that are clear for all stakeholders; and strengthen national capacity to implement effort schemes
Adjust tuna management plans to increase flexibility to sell tuna, or acquire tuna
Include implications of climate change in management objectives of WCPFC
Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort data to improve tuna models

23. Suggested supporting policies
Develop further measures to reduce capture of bigeye tuna by purse-seine
Apply management measures to address the effects of climate change on tuna in archipelagic waters
Develop tuna products and distribution channels that minimise CO2 emissions

24. Conclusions
Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities
Supporting policies are required
Integrate adaptations and policies into national strategies and action plans for climate change