1. Climate Change and Canadian Agriculture and Forests
Robert Mendelsohn
Yale University
Brent Sohngen
Ohio State University
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

2. Impacts and Adaptations
Introduction
Climate Change will Affect Canadian Agriculture and Forestry by
Changing Productive Area
Changing Productivity
Changing Global Prices
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

3. Impacts and Adaptations
Canadian Farming Area
Warming is expected to increase area suitable for agriculture
Agriculture in northern regions in US expected to increase by 18-30% for 2.5C and –3 to 40% for 5C
Farming area in southern Canada even more likely to increase
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

4. Canadian Forestry Area
Large increase in northern boreal expected
Most of this increase is inaccessible
Commercial forest likely to expand
Especially eastern softwoods and boreal
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

5. Agricultural Productivity
Productivity per ha likely to increase from warming
Productivity will increase from carbon fertilization
Unknown what effect precipitation will have
Unknown what effect interannual variation will have
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

6. Impacts and Adaptations
Forest Productivity
Productivity per ha likely to increase from warming and
carbon fertilization: 18-30%
Unknown what effect precipitation will have
Unknown what effect interannual variation will have
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

7. Impacts and Adaptations
Global Timber Prices
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

8. Global Prices Will Fall
Climate Change likely to increase global production
Global prices are expected to fall
Fall less in dieback case-biome change assumed to cause lost inventory
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

9. Impacts and Adaptations
Results
Agricultural Production will likely increase
Forest Production will likely increase
Impact on farmers and foresters depends on global prices
Consumers will benefit
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

10. Impacts and Adaptations
Farm Impacts
Production could increase 16 to 50% with 2.5C warming and –12% to +50% with 5C warming
Annual welfare increases of $7 billion (USD) in 2.5C and 5C scenarios
Price effects mitigate production effects
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

11. Present Value of Forestry Impacts
Scenario
Producer
(Billion USD)
Consumer
Hamburg
Regeneration
$24.2
(10.7%)
$29.4
(19.9%)
Dieback
-$8.7
(-3.8%)
$17.0
(11.4%)
Schlesinger
$40.1
(17.7%)
$24.7
(16.6%)
$4.9
(2.2%)
$10.7
(7.2%)
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

12. Impacts and Adaptations
Forestry Impacts
Dieback lowers Canadian Benefits
Large Benefits for Consumers in All Scenarios
Annual Forestry Effects are about $0.5-$3 billion (USD) benefit
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

13. Impacts and Adaptations
Conclusion
Canada likely beneficiary of warming
Benefits in agriculture, forestry, and energy
Small losses in other economic sectors (coast, water)
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

14. Impacts and Adaptations
Sequestration
Canada has opportunity to sequester substantial carbon in forests: 0.75 billion tons by 2050 and 2.0 billion tons by 2100
Lengthen rotations
Reduce fires
Harvest mature timber
Warming will increase forest area
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations

15. Impacts and Adaptations
Allow markets to adapt
Allow farmers to increase farms
Allow forest concessions to determine their own harvest rates
Adjust public infrastructure as needed
4/26/2019
Impacts and Adaptations