1. Key Concepts Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G., Wilkinson, B., (2011)
Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resource CD Rom, De Montfort University

2. What is Risk
A judgement about a usually negative event or behaviour based on
Likelihood (probability)
Impact (the outcome)
Key domains of risk in criminal justice terms
Re-offending and reconviction
Serious Harm to others
Also the risk of harm to self
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

3. The Two Dimensions of Risk
likelihood
High likelihood/ High likelihood/ high
low impact impact,
eg shoplifting, low eg TWOC, burglary
value property thefts Impact
Low likelihood/ Low likelihood/ high
low impact impact
eg first time eg mass murder, public
opportunistic theft massacre
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

4. Structured Assessment
A good risk assessment will help you to
Make a prediction of risk along both dimensions
Risk of re-offending
Risk of harm (what and to whom)
Key risk factors – risk reduction
N.B. can also be used to evaluate effectiveness
Kemshall et al 2011
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

5. Structured Assessment
Actuarial
Statistically based insurance approach
Clinical
Individually based
Interviewing observation social history
Professional judgement
Both have limitations so a structured holistic assessment to build on the strengths of each and reduce bias
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

6. Structured Assessment
OASys and Asset
Reducing bias
Guiding the thinking of the assessor
Focusing on most important risk factors
Analysing and recording the evidence
Consistency and comparability
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

7. Main Indicators Past behaviour and convictions
Motivation for and attitude towards offending
Access and proximity to victims (including and grooming)
Preparedness to use weapons
Disinhibitors (alcohol and drugs)
Situational triggers
Conditions and circumstances
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

8. Imminence – A Difficult Concept
How soon is the offender likely to commit this act – some questions
More likely to do it than not
As soon as an opportunity or victim presents
Actively grooming opportunity or victim
Will act as soon as risk management plan breaks down
Already failing to attend or comply
Past circumstances and conditions are repeating
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

9. Risk Management Reduction rather than Eradication
Intervention programmes
Changing thinking and behaviour
Restrictive conditions
Limiting opportunities – enforcement essential
Monitoring and surveillance
keeping a watchful eye
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

10. Defensible Decisions Withstanding Hindsight Scrutiny
All reasonable steps were taken in assessment and management
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

11. Defensible Decisions Decisions grounded in the evidence
Reliable risk assessment tools
Collect verify and thoroughly evaluate information
Record and account for decision making
Communicate with relevant others seek information you do not have
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

12. Defensible Decisions Stay within agency policies and procedures
Match risk management interventions to risk factors
Maintain contact with offender at a level commensurate with the level of risk of harm
Respond to escalating risk, deteriorating behaviour and non-compliance
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

13. Rights versus Risks Offender rights Protecting public and victims
When there is a significant risk of harm
protection should outweigh offender rights
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

14. Diversity and Difference
The individual
offender
The institutional
and policy context
The practitioner
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

15. Key Messages Likelihood and impact Assess risk of harm in all cases
Ensure you have made a defensible decision and evidenced your actions
Prioritise public and victim protection
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University