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POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub- Saharan Africa Carl Haub Senior Demographer.

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Presentation on theme: "POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub- Saharan Africa Carl Haub Senior Demographer."— Presentation transcript:

1 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub- Saharan Africa Carl Haub carlh@prb.org Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC German Association for the United Nations Berlin, 13 September 2010

2 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org World Population 1900 1.6 Billion

3 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org World Population 2000 6.1 Billion

4 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision. Sub-Saharan Africas Population, 1950 to 2050 Projected World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Billions IF the total fertility rate in 2050 has declined to 2.6 lifetime births per woman, down from 5.2 today. 1.8

5 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet Population of the Worlds Regions, 2010 and 2050 Projected Millions

6 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet Projected Growth of World Regional Populations, 2010 to 2050 Millions

7 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Females Fewer and Fewer Potential Parents = Unprecedented Aging: Europe by Age and Sex, 2010 Age Millions Males United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

8 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Females Youthful Population = Large Potential Population Growth: Sub-Saharan Africa by Age and Sex, 2010 Age Millions Males United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

9 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision. Africas Population by Region, 1950 to 2050 Projected World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Billions Eastern Africa Western Africa Northern Africa Middle Africa Southern Africa

10 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Sub-Saharan Africas Population by Region, 2010 865 Million Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet

11 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Sub-Saharan Africas Population by Region, 2050 Projected 1.83 Billion Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet

12 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Gesamtfruchtbarkeitsrate oder Zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer oder Durchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.

13 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Ethiopia Germany Population 2010 (millions) 85 82 Population 2050 (millions) 174 72 Lifetime Births per Woman 5.4 1.3 Annual Number of Births 3,280,000 648,000 Percent of Population Below Age 15 44 14 Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 20 Life Expectancy at Birth 55 80 Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 77 3.5 Annual Number of Infant Deaths 250,000 2,250 GNI PPP per capita, 2008 US$ 870 US$ 35,940 The Demographic Divide The Example of Ethiopia and Germany 2010 World Population Data Sheet

14 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org ca. 1980 ca. 2010 Western Africa 46 43 Middle Africa 43 46 Eastern Africa 46 44 Northern Africa 44 33 Southern Africa 42 32 India 41 32 China 32 18 1980 and 2010 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau Population Under Age 15 (Percent) 1980 and 2010

15 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Population projections are scenarios: If this happens, then that will happen. They are not forecasts or predictions. What ARE Population Projections?

16 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org The commonly-used United Nations Medium Variant projection assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman. That assumption is, in turn, dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America. The UN is very careful to point that out. How Are Projections Made?

17 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Fertility Assumptions: The Example of Uganda United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision Children per woman (TFR) 103 Million 91 Million 152 Million 34 Million

18 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision and 2010 World Population Data Sheet

19 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Childbearing in Sub-Saharan Africa Begins at a Young Age Age-specific Fertility Rates, 2005-2010 United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision Births per 1,000 women in each age group

20 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Lifetime children per woman Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006 Two Very Different Histories Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys

21 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Lifetime children per woman Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa Circles indicate survey years

22 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Lifetime children per woman Demographic and Health Surveys, Statistics South Africa, 2007 Ghana Maternal Health SurveyNote: Gray circles indicate a census estimate Fertility Decline in Africa as Reported in Surveys - cont Circles indicate survey years

23 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) How Many Children Do Women Say is Ideal? Kenya MadagascarGhana Latest DHS total fertility rate in red 4.6 4.8 4.0

24 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys How Many Children Do Women Say is Ideal? – cont UgandaZambia Niger 6.5 6.27.1 Latest DHS total fertility rate in red

25 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys and 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of Burkina Faso Reported Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods) Early/mid-1990s and Most Recent TFRs=4.3/3.86.1/6.26.1/4.85.8/4.76.9/6.75.2/4.06.5/6.0 % of Married women, ages 15-49 using a modern method 5.7/5.76.0/5.7

26 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys Reasons for Discontinuation of Contraceptive Use Percent of users discontinuing within 12 months

27 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys Family Planning Use by Method, Married/in-Union Women, Ages 15-49 Percent using

28 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys With How Many Living Children Do Women Say They Wish to Stop Childbearing? TFR=5.77.06.66.36.25.75.46.04.03.84.6 ++++ Number of children when women who wish to stop childbearing reaches 50 percent

29 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Surveys Unmet Need for Family Planning Appears to Show a Desire to Space or Limit Births TFR=6.76.14.05.46.66.26.3 Percent of married/in-union women, ages 15-49 5.7 7.0

30 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Demographic and Health Survey

31 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Database

32 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006 Percent of adult population

33 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2008 Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV Millions

34 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2000 Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV Millions

35 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 births Improvements in Infant Mortality, Past and Projected, 1950 - 2050 United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

36 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in Africa 2005-2010 Life Tables, (l x function) Percent surviving

37 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in Africa Projected to 2045-2050, Life Tables (l x function) Percent surviving

38 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010 Slow Progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (1990) (2005) (1990-92) (2005-07) (1990) (2008 ) Note: Dark line = 2015 MDG Goal

39 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org United Nations Population Division, World Population Policies, 2009

40 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Fertility 24. Total fertility rate has persistently remained high at 6.9 children per woman in 2001 and 6.7 in 2006. This is mainly due to cultural and religious beliefs and preference for large families as the source of sustenance especially during old age. This situation has created a large dependent population, and engendered conditions not favourable for women's reproductive health. Urbanisation, education, higher income and improved decision making within the household are associated with reduced fertility. Section 24, National Population Policy for Social Transformation and Sustainable Development, Uganda Population Secretariat, 2008

41 © 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org Thank You! carlh@prb.org

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