1. Minnesota Demographic And Economic Trends
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Mn Dept of Administration
March 2010

2. Census Milestones Questionnaires mailed in mid-March 2010
Questionnaires due April 1, 2010
Non-response follow-up will begin in May 2010

3. Why do we take the Census?
Distribute Federal and State Government funding including Local Government Aide (LGA)
$400 Billion in federal funding plus undetermined state dollars every year
$1,300 per year lost for each person we fail to count OR $1,300,000 over the decade if we miss 100 people
Census data is widely used for planning
Government, Businesses, Schools, Service Providers
Constitutionally Mandated: Congressional Reapportionment
Minnesota could lose a seat!
Let’s keep our 8 Congressional Districts

4. The Economic/Demographic Environment Has Changed for as Far as We Can Forecast
Short run economic cycle has merged with long run demographic cycle
We have entered the Age of Entitlement—economic growth in the next 25 years will be about half what it was in the past 25.
State revenue growth will slow while spending pressures will accelerate
This is a national/global issue

5. Additional labor market slack has produced much weaker than expected wage growth.
Mn State Economist, Dec 2009

6. The Great Recession Has Raised the Level of Social Angst
But
Four Mega-Forces Will Shape Minnesota In The “New Economy”
Globalization
Technology
Energy prices
Demography

7. Minnesota Saw a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 in 2008
The Entitlement Age has begun. The first wave of the boom generation turned 62 in The number turning age 62 will continue to grow, peaking in 2022 at a level more than 60 percent above the 2007 level.
The aging of Minnesota will affect our labor markets and the demand for privately and publicly provided services
2005 ACS 7

8. College Age Population Will Decline
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007

9. Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply

10. Minnesota Will Grow More Diverse; Remain Less Diverse Than The Nation
State Demographer & Census Bureau projections

11. In 2008, Minnesota’s Foreign Born Workforce Was 254,000 or 8
In 2008, Minnesota’s Foreign Born Workforce Was 254,000 or 8.5% Of The Total Workforce
2008 ACS

12. One Response to Labor Demand Has Been Immigration Minnesota’s Foreign Born Labor Force Has Increased, Especially in Younger Ages
1990 Census, 2007 ACS, smoothed

13. The “New Normal” Probably Means
Slower economic growth—about 85% as fast
Slower growth of investments, incomes, profits, wages, etc.
Less consumption; more saving
Chronic government deficits & cuts in service
Worries about how to pay for past promises
More uncertainty in our personal & national futures
A whole new way of looking for opportunities

14. The Key To Future Success?
Future economic growth will depend increasingly on increasing productivity and less on labor force size
Productivity is not just producing at a lower cost
This plays to Minnesota’s historic strength

15. Grieving For The “Old Normal”
Denial – “This is not happening.” “Just wait, things will return to normal.”
Anger -- “Who is to blame?” Rage and gridlock rule and anyone who symbolizes life, energy, progress, success, happiness, etc. is treated with resentment and mistrust.
Bargaining – “I’ll change if this just goes away.” Somehow, we can get back to the old normal if we just return to good, ole fashioned (conservative/liberal) values.
Depression (emotional, not economic) – “What’s the point in trying?” “We are all doomed anyway.” The certainty/finality of events is finally recognized.
Acceptance – “It’s going to be okay.” Looking for opportunities begins.