1. Language games

2. Probable futures
There are more and less probable futures

3. Probability, the core of empirical science
± s = 68%, ± 2s = 95%, ± 3s = 99.7% chance

4. Possible futures
Anything probable is per definition possible but not everything possible is also probable.
A probable future could be predicted.
Improbable possibilities cannot be predicted. You only can explore them by design.
Less than 0.3% probability contains much more possibilities than 99.7% probabilities.

5. Desirable futures
Design (Ir.)
Empirical research (Drs.)
Policy (Mr.)

6. Obvious and Impossible futures

7. Field of problems and aims

8. Undesired, improbable possibilities
Are they relevant as long as nobody wants them?

9. Unexpected inventions
Yes

10. Changing desires

11. Subtracting futures Field of problems = Probable - Desirable
Field of Aims = Desirable - Probable

12. Design study or empirical research
Design produces possibilities by conditions
Research produces probabilities by causes

13. Conditions presupposed in causal paradigms

14. Orders of size to unravel context

15. Object of study and contexts

16. Impact analysis presupposes a perspective of future contexts

17. Ideal contents of a context sensitive Study Proposal
1. OBJECT OF STUDY AND ITS CONTEXT
2. MY STUDY PROPOSAL
3. ACCOUNTS

18. 1 OBJECT OF MY STUDY AND ITS CONTEXT
1.1. Object of my study: frame and grain
1.2. Probable future context: field of problems >
1.3. Desired impacts of my study: field of aims >
1.4. My designerly references: field of means
1.5. My portfolio and perspective: field of abilities

19. Subtracting futures Field of problems = Probable - Desirable
Field of Aims = Desirable - Probable

20. Explicit future context
protects your study against judgements with other suppositions about the future context
raises the debate about the robustness of your study in different future contexts
raises a ‘field of problems’ instead of an isolated ‘problem statement’ by subtracting desirable futures from the probable ones
makes your study comparable to others concerning comparable contexts

21. 2 MY STUDY PROPOSAL 2.1. Location or other future context factors
2.2. Motivation or programme of requirements
2.3. Intended results
2.4. Intended contributions to science
2.5. Intended planning and organogramme

22. 3 ACCOUNTS 3.1. How did I meet criteria for a study proposal >
3.2. My References
3.3. My Key words to find back what any principal wants to know in my proposal

23. Criteria for a study proposal
A. Affinity with designing
B. University latitude
C. Concept formation and transferability
D. Retrievability and accumulating capacity
E. Methodical accountability and depth
F. Ability to be criticised and to criticise
G. Convergence and limitations

24. Future impact