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Language games
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Probable futures There are more and less probable futures
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Probability, the core of empirical science
± s = 68%, ± 2s = 95%, ± 3s = 99.7% chance
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Possible futures Anything probable is per definition possible but not everything possible is also probable. A probable future could be predicted. Improbable possibilities cannot be predicted. You only can explore them by design. Less than 0.3% probability contains much more possibilities than 99.7% probabilities.
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Desirable futures Design (Ir.) Empirical research (Drs.) Policy (Mr.)
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Obvious and Impossible futures
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Field of problems and aims
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Undesired, improbable possibilities
Are they relevant as long as nobody wants them?
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Unexpected inventions
Yes
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Changing desires
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Subtracting futures Field of problems = Probable - Desirable
Field of Aims = Desirable - Probable
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Design study or empirical research
Design produces possibilities by conditions Research produces probabilities by causes
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Conditions presupposed in causal paradigms
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Orders of size to unravel context
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Object of study and contexts
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Impact analysis presupposes a perspective of future contexts
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Ideal contents of a context sensitive Study Proposal
1. OBJECT OF STUDY AND ITS CONTEXT 2. MY STUDY PROPOSAL 3. ACCOUNTS
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1 OBJECT OF MY STUDY AND ITS CONTEXT
1.1. Object of my study: frame and grain 1.2. Probable future context: field of problems > 1.3. Desired impacts of my study: field of aims > 1.4. My designerly references: field of means 1.5. My portfolio and perspective: field of abilities
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Subtracting futures Field of problems = Probable - Desirable
Field of Aims = Desirable - Probable
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Explicit future context
protects your study against judgements with other suppositions about the future context raises the debate about the robustness of your study in different future contexts raises a ‘field of problems’ instead of an isolated ‘problem statement’ by subtracting desirable futures from the probable ones makes your study comparable to others concerning comparable contexts
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2 MY STUDY PROPOSAL 2.1. Location or other future context factors
2.2. Motivation or programme of requirements 2.3. Intended results 2.4. Intended contributions to science 2.5. Intended planning and organogramme
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3 ACCOUNTS 3.1. How did I meet criteria for a study proposal >
3.2. My References 3.3. My Key words to find back what any principal wants to know in my proposal
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Criteria for a study proposal
A. Affinity with designing B. University latitude C. Concept formation and transferability D. Retrievability and accumulating capacity E. Methodical accountability and depth F. Ability to be criticised and to criticise G. Convergence and limitations
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Future impact
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