1. TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS February 7, 2017
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Information provided by:
Frederick R. Ignatovich, Ph.D., STANFRED Consultants

2. Enrollment History* 2008/09 12,165 2009/10 12,069 2010/11 12,056
2011/12
12,328
2012/13
12,391
2013/14
12,573
2014/15
12,556
2015/16
12,710
2016/17
12,868
*Headcount

3. Troy School District Birth to Kindergarten Ratios
YEAR
B - KDG
RATIO %
99-00
4.58
00-01
4.46
01-02
4.42
02-03
03-04
4.67
04-05
4.61
05-06
4.65
06-07
4.94
07-08
5.45
08-09
5.29
09-10
5.22
10-11
5.63
11-12
5.67
12-13
5.94
13-14
6.18
14-15
5.82
15-16
6.39
16-17
6.59
17-18
Troy School District Birth to Kindergarten Ratios
Projecting Most Likely

4. ENROLLMENTS AND PROJECTIONS FOR TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT
K-12 Head Count
Excluding 276 Students:
ECP (Early Childhood Program - 77)
SCSE (Self Contained Special Education - 137)
GROW (Post Secondary Special Education - 62)
Projections assume 60 SOC Kdg. & 10 SOC 1st grade (Sibling Only)

5. Historical and Program Information Troy School District
Enrollment of SOC students attending Troy School District:
Fall 2010/11 – 416
Fall 2011/12 – 590
Fall 2012/13 – 700
Fall 2013/14 – 821
Fall 2014/15 – 907
Fall 2015/16 – 990
Fall 2016/

6. Calculation of Projected Future Enrollment Future enrollments would be expected to fall between the MOST LIKELY and LOW projections. This is calculated by adding MOST LIKELY plus the LOW divided by two(2).

7. Projected Future Enrollment
School Year
Grade Levels
Projected Enrollment
** Not including SCSE, ECP, GROW
Total K–12
Total K-12 Projected Enrollment*
2017/18
K - 5
5458
12,752
12,992
6 - 8
2987
9 - 12
4307
2018/19
5370
12,751
12,991
3074
2019/20
5320
12,781
13,021
4387
2020/21
5369
12,799
13,039
2984
4446
2021/22
5364
12,765
13,005
2916
4485
*Includes: Self-Contained Special Ed (SCSE), Early Childhood Program (ECP), GROW – approx. 240 students in total.
**Does not include: SCSE (Self-Contained Special Ed), ECP (Early Childhood Program), GROW (240 students).

8. Current Enrollment Comparison* Grades K -12
Projected Enrollment 2013/14
Actual
Enrollment
2013/14
Projected Enrollment 2014/15
2014/15
Projected Enrollment 2015/16
2015/16
Projected Enrollment 2016/17
2016/17
12,494
12,573
12,653
12,556
12,612
12,710
12,868
*Includes all : Self-Contained Special Ed (SCSE), Early Childhood Program (ECP),
GROW = 276 students.