1. Agricultural Marketing
ECON 337:
Agricultural Marketing
Lee Schulz
Associate Professor
Chad Hart
Associate Professor 1

2. Livestock Pricing

3. Price Determination and Discovery
is the broad forces of supply and demand establishing a market clearing price for a commodity.
Price Discovery
is the process by which buyers and sellers arrive at a transaction price for a given quality and quantity of product at a given time and place.
Reading Assignment
Understanding Livestock Pricing Issues 3

4. Price Determination
Supply determinants or factors affecting quantity produced:
Input prices (feed, feeder cattle, weaned/feeder pigs).
Technology (growth promotants, etc.).
Expected price of outputs produced from inputs (finished cattle, finished hogs).
Demand forces or factors affecting quantity consumed:
Prices of products produced (beef, pork).
Prices of competing products (chicken, turkey, beef, pork).
Consumer income.
Tastes and preferences. 4

5. Price Discovery
A human process, subject to relative bargaining power of the buyer and seller.
Involves several interrelated concepts:
Market structure (number, size, location, and competitiveness of buyers and sellers),
Market behavior (buyer procurement and pricing methods),
Market information and price reporting (amount, timeliness, and reliability of information), and
Futures markets and risk management alternatives.
Two stage process:
Evaluate supply, demand, and market prices.
Estimate the price for the specific trade. 5

6. Futures Markets in Price Discovery
Centralized pricing.
Global forces in one location.
Livestock price discovery (in general) more complicated than for grains.
Variability – basis a bigger issue.
Growing inventory problem.

7. Price Determination
and Price Discovery S P Pe D Q Qe 7

8. Centralized Pricing
All buyers and sellers in one place at one time, i.e., auction market
Full and immediate information
Competitive bidding
Equalizes market power
Transaction cost
Physical movement of product 8

9. Decentralized Pricing
One-to-one negotiations, i.e., direct sales
Reduced transportation cost
Reduced transaction cost
Depends on skills and information
Higher search cost 9

10. Contract Sales Livestock sold under pre-determined arrangement.
Prices may be set, or based on a key market.
Formula pricing – pricing formula agreed upon in advance.
Provides opportunity to ensure supply, market, and manage price risk.

11. Cash/Spot market price
Often through a broker
USDA report
Formula price
Based on observable price
Spot market
Hog futures, maybe corn & SBM
Example: 50% of 5-month-out LH futures 11

12. 12

13. Slaughter Cattle and Hogs
Spot or cash or negotiated pricing
Seller contacts buyer when ready to sell
Negotiate price and terms on each group
Formula pricing
Price discovery from elsewhere
Formulas based on
Spot market
Cutout price
Futures
Cost of production
Contract pricing
May be for one group or an ongoing agreement between buyer and seller
Terms (delivery, specification) and pricing method determined ahead of marketing date
Do you trust the underlying market for price discovery? 13

14. Pricing Mechanisms Alternative Marketing Arrangements (AMAs)
Fed cattle:
Negotiated cash,
Negotiated grids - base price resulting from buyer–seller negotiation,
Formula-priced - typically with the base price tied to a cash market quote or plant average cost,
Forward contracts - typically with price tied to the futures market or futures market basis.
Hogs:
Swine market formula priced trades - typically with the base price tied to a cash market quote,
Other market formula trades - typically with price tied to the futures market,
Other purchase methods - includes window or ledger contracts and cost of production contracts. 14

15. Definitions – Negotiated
USDA AMS - Cattle
NEGOTIATED CASH - Cash deal negotiated between buyer and seller where the price is known at the time the deal is struck and will not change regardless of how the cattle perform. All that is needed for payment is weight.

16. Definitions – Formula USDA AMS - Cattle
FORMULA BASE - Base price is not negotiated but is based on some other price (such as plant average or weighted average price) or value determining mechanism that may or may not be known at the time the deal is struck. Producer normally has few, if any options, concerning the pricing once the formula is agreed to.
FORMULA NET - Price paid after premiums and discounts have been applied to the formula base.

17. Definitions – Forward Contract
USDA AMS - Cattle
FORWARD CONTRACT BASE – Price based off CME. Base price is normally a moving target that producer has the option to nail down at some point during life of the contract. Most are basis contracts.
FORWARD CONTRACT NET - Price paid after any adjustments have made to forward contract base.

18. Definitions – Grid USDA AMS - Cattle
NEGOTIATED GRID BASE - Base price is negotiated between buyer and seller and is known at the time the deal is struck and delivery is usually expected within 14 days.  
NEGOTIATED GRID NET - Price paid after premiums and discounts have been applied to the negotiated grid base.

19. MPR Reports - Cattle Capture behavior at time of purchase:
LM_CT137 (IA/MN): Cattle bought prior day; most the volume is negotiated cash purchases, providing prices most closely related to auction prices. Also included are negotiated grids, where only the base level is given.
LM_CT167 (IA/MN): Cattle bought prior week; negotiated cash purchases. Also provides weekly price distribution.
Capture behavior at time of slaughter:
LM_CT147 (IA/MN): Weekly. Final grid price; determined after slaughter and given in the formula and forward report.
LM_CT153 (US): Forward contract volume and different basis metrics.
LM_CT155 (US) & LM_CT169 (5-Area): Premiums and discounts; report partially explains differences among the various prices.

20. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

21. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

22. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

23. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

24. Definitions – Negotiated
USDA-AMS - Hogs
NEGOTIATED CASH - Cash or spot market purchase under which the base price is determined by seller-buyer interaction and agreement on a delivery day and are scheduled for delivery no more than 14 days after the date committed.
NEGOTIATED FORMULA - Swine or pork market formula determined by negotiation on a lot-by-lot basis and scheduled for delivery not later than 14 days after the date on which the formula is negotiated and swine are committed.

25. Definitions – Formula USDA-AMS - Hogs
OTHER MARKET FORMULA – Pricing mechanism is a formula price based on one or more futures or options contracts.
SWINE OR PORK MARKET FORMULA – Pricing mechanism is a formula price based on a market for swine, pork, or a pork product, other than a future or option for swine, pork, or a pork product.
E.g., 97% of national pork cutout value.
OTHER PURCHASE AGREEMENT – Not a negotiated purchase, swine or pork market formula purchase, negotiated formula purchase, or other market formula purchase; and does not involve packer-owned swine.
E.g., Floor Price (FP) set by COP; Floor published at the end of each month; Ceiling Price (CP) = FP + $5, If Market Price (MP) < FP, then Base Price = FP; If MP > CP, then Base Price = 93% MP.

26. Definitions – Prices USDA-AMS - Hogs
BASE PRICE – Price from which no discounts are subtracted and no premiums are added.
NET PRICE – Total amount paid (including all premiums, less all discounts) per hundred pounds of carcass weight of swine delivered at the packing plant.
E.g., Sort loss, backfat, loin area/depth, carcass weight differentials.
NONCARCASS MERIT PREMIUM – Increase in base price based on any factor other than the characteristics of the carcass, if the actual amount of the premium is known before the sale and delivery of the swine.
E.g., Transportation, delivery time, beta agonist free, animal welfare, antibiotic free, diet/feed, genetics, meat quality, process verified program, sow housing.

27. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

28. Data Source: USDA-AMS

29. Pricing Mechanisms Alternative Marketing Arrangements (AMAs)
All have pros and cons
No market is a free market.
All (e.g., cash, contract, formulas) have risk, transaction costs and varying levels of information available to participants.
Increased use of AMAs have been driven by:
Large risk of profit margins;
Price can be connected to quality and yield information sending a stronger price signal through the supply chain than buying on the average;
Improved efficiencies through planning supply movements that translates into reduced costs for both the feeder and the packer;
Economics drive packer and feeder decisions to use one marketing arrangement over another.
Current market situation will play a role in how fed cattle and hogs are traded. 29

30. Thinning Cash Trade
Negotiated prices are used as a base in many formula sales. 
Critical negotiated price be representative and reliable as a market price that accurately reflects current supply & demand conditions. 
If not, a large percentage of sales will be valued off of a base price that may not be a reliable indicator of current market conditions.
Reliability of the negotiated price: 
How much error in the negotiated market price one is willing to tolerate?
Wider tolerance suggests the need for fewer negotiated trades.
With as much trade using the negotiated price as a base, even modest tolerance levels at the market level can quickly have large dollar impacts on the can industry. 
Given that packers would typically have more market information compared to typical producers who are negotiating prices, the likelihood that pricing errors are symmetric around zero might be questionable.
How much confidence one wants to have in the negotiated price being within a certain error tolerance?
Greater confidence that the negotiated market price is accurate, takes a lot more transactions   30

31. Information and Markets
Price reporting
Role of the government
Depend on government data because production agriculture has always been (and will likely always be) an industry with asymmetrical information. 
In April 2001, MPR went into effect and required slaughtering plants (which slaughter 125,000 head of cattle or more, 100,000 head of swine or more, or slaughter/process 75,000 head of lambs or more annually) to report information on pricing, contracting for purchase, formulated sales, and supply and demand conditions twice daily to the AMS.
Facilitates formula pricing
Government-gathered and published prices and supplies facilitate decision making as these data provide a mechanism for fair prices and prices which reflect all public information and react swiftly to new information, i.e., efficient marketing. 31

32. The Free-Rider Problem
The nature of negotiated price information is a strange public goods situation.
These are private goods in production and public goods in usage.
Producers of the goods, i.e., the ones doing the negotiating are not compensated for the data – but believe they get more (i.e., higher prices).
With MPR others cannot be excluded from using the data. Then users of the goods, i.e., the ones using negotiated prices in formulas, do not have to pay for them and benefit from not having to discover prices. 32

33. The Free-Rider Problem
What are the alternatives (what has been suggested)?
Leave it alone and allow participants to use the methods they trust - used so far and we have had few problems.
Force a minimum share for negotiated market – inefficient, distribution impacts, who/how to police it.
Use another price that is correlated or fair – e.g., USDA cutout.
Price based on costs and value - MANY businesses base long-term pricing arrangements off costs plus “normal” profit.  Or negotiate “value” above costs.
Charge data users and compensate data producers
Incentivizes data production – negotiation
Discourages data use without production
Most efficient, economically.
Optimal level of negotiation/data production?
Mechanism – similar to checkoff?
Proper rate? – Change it until a “satisfactory” level of data generation is reached? 33

34. Packer Offering Price
Starts with derived demand from wholesale and retail markets.
Time lag between sales of product and purchase of animals.
Orders typically booked 3 weeks in advance.
Special features, holidays etc may be longer.
Clean up orders may be a few days.
Packer is anticipating prices and stands risk.

35. Derived Demand
Derived demand – demand for goods or commodities that is derived from consumer demand for an end product.
Demand for livestock is generally a derived demand – derived from demand for meat products
E.g., slaughter cattle demand derived from boxed beef demand
Affected by downstream value and input costs

36. Derived Demand S Px Pretail Pwholesale Pfarm Dretail Dwholesale Dfarm
Vertical distance is the difference in price at 3 levels
There is cost associated with moving from one level to the next Px
Pretail
Pwholesale
Pfarm
Dretail
Cuts of meat
Carcasses
Animals
Dwholesale
Dfarm Q Qx 36

37. Derived Demand for Pork
Average retail price $/lb $2.50
Value of trim and scrap $/lb $0.10
Costs from whlse-retail $/lb -$1.00
The most retail will pay $/lb $1.60
Retail pounds per carcass 100
The most retail will pay $/head $160

38. Derived Demand for Hogs
Wholesale carcass value $/hd $160
Value hide and offal $/hd $25
Costs to slaughter and fab $/hd -$20
The most packer will pay $/hd $165
Wholesale pounds per carcass 200
The most packer will pay $/cwt. $82.50
(or think of it as ¢/lb.)

39. Producer Asking Price Starts with cost of production.
Reflects current market conditions.
Time is a huge factor for livestock.
Marginal revenue may decrease.
Marginal cost increases at increasing rate.
Farmer has longer time period than packer from start of process to end.

40. Class web site: