1. Climate & Energy Policies for the 44 th President & 111 th Congress William Becker Presidential Climate Action Project November 13, 2008

2. What science is telling us 1. Global warming is real. 2. It is underway now. 3. It is caused mostly by human activities. 4. If allowed to go much farther, it will have disastrous consequences for our economy, health, security & ecosystems. 5. We have the tools to prevent this. 6. We dont have much time.

3. How Far? Emission Reduction Goals for Industrial Nations By 2015 By 2015 Stabilize global emissions: IPCC Stabilize global emissions: IPCC By 2020 (compared to 1990) By 2020 (compared to 1990) 25-40%: Bali action plan 25-40%: Bali action plan 20-30%: European Union 20-30%: European Union

4. How fast? "If there's no action before 2012, "If there's no action before 2012, that's too late. What we do in the next 2 to 3 years will determine our future. This is the defining moment. – Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC The next president and congress must define a course next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present dangerous situation… – Dr. Jim Hansen, NASA The next president and congress must define a course next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present dangerous situation… – Dr. Jim Hansen, NASA

5. Moving in Wrong Direction McKinsey & Company 2030 Reference Case for U.S. By 2030… CO 2e emissions increase 35% CO 2e emissions increase 35% Carbon absorption decreases 7% Carbon absorption decreases 7% Carbon intensity & Carbon intensity & per capita emissions improve Growth factors Growth factors Population growth Population growth Buildings & appliances Buildings & appliances More carbon-based power More carbon-based power

6. Moving in Wrong Direction Energy Information Administration - 2007

7. The challenge… 21 st century economy Security Security Opportunity Opportunity Stewardship Stewardship

8. Carbon Economy Petroleum Oil dependence to cost economy $560 billion & 1.5% of GDP in 2008 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory/DOE) Oil dependence to cost economy $560 billion & 1.5% of GDP in 2008 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory/DOE) $1.7 trillion lost in past five years $1.7 trillion lost in past five years $1 trillion transferred to oil- producing nations $1 trillion transferred to oil- producing nations Oil = 1/3 trade deficit Oil = 1/3 trade deficit Cheap oil gone Cheap oil gone Efficiency, conservation & new fuels can deliver 50 times more oil than expanded domestic drilling (Consumer Federation of America ) Efficiency, conservation & new fuels can deliver 50 times more oil than expanded domestic drilling (Consumer Federation of America ) Direct Economic Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence, 1970-2009 Source: U.S. Department of Energy

9. Carbon Economy Electric Generation U.S. power sector worlds largest U.S. power sector worlds largest 2 times China 2 times China 3.5 times Russia 3.5 times Russia 5 times India 5 times India Per capita use in U.S. 5 times global average Per capita use in U.S. 5 times global average 70% wasted in generation 70% wasted in generation 6-9% wasted in line losses 6-9% wasted in line losses Congestion/blackouts cost $79 billion/year Congestion/blackouts cost $79 billion/year BAU by 2030 BAU by 2030 60% power from coal 60% power from coal 34% of GHG emissions 34% of GHG emissions

10. Carbon Economy Coal 80% U.S. power plant CO 2 80% U.S. power plant CO 2 1/3 existing plants to retire by 2030 1/3 existing plants to retire by 2030 151 plants in pipeline in 2007 151 plants in pipeline in 2007 Nearly 90 stopped by lawsuit, permitting, lack of investment Nearly 90 stopped by lawsuit, permitting, lack of investment CCS decade + away CCS decade + away

11. Post-Carbon Economy Market opportunity Global green market to reach $2.7 trillion by 2020 (UNEP) Global green market to reach $2.7 trillion by 2020 (UNEP) U.S investments in renewables = $13 billion in 2007 U.S investments in renewables = $13 billion in 2007

12. Post-Carbon Economy Renewable Energy Today Today 11% of generation 11% of generation Wind capacity grew 45% 2006-2007 Wind capacity grew 45% 2006-2007 Solar capacity grew 40% Solar capacity grew 40% Geothermal projects up 20% through Aug. 2008 Geothermal projects up 20% through Aug. 2008 Whats Ahead Whats Ahead 20% wind by 2020 (DOE) 20% wind by 2020 (DOE) Solar grid parity in ~5 years (McKinsey) Solar grid parity in ~5 years (McKinsey) Smart grids Smart grids Distributed power Distributed power

13. Post-Carbon Economy Energy efficiency Largest source of US energy supply for last 35 years Largest source of US energy supply for last 35 years 30% savings cost effective in the next 20-25 years (ACEEE) 30% savings cost effective in the next 20-25 years (ACEEE) $1 for efficiency avoids more than $2 in new supply (IEA) $1 for efficiency avoids more than $2 in new supply (IEA) Best cushion against rising prices Best cushion against rising prices Efficiency could hold US CO2 constant to 2030 (NREL) Efficiency could hold US CO2 constant to 2030 (NREL)

14. Post-Carbon Economy $100 billion $100 billion investment could produce 2 million jobs in two years - Center for American Progress $500 billion investment could produce 5 million jobs in 10 years - Apollo Project $500 billion investment could produce 5 million jobs in 10 years - Apollo Project National push could create 2.5 million new metropolitan jobs by 2018 - U.S. Conference of Mayors National push could create 2.5 million new metropolitan jobs by 2018 - U.S. Conference of Mayors

15. McKinsey Curve: Power of Efficiency

16. Building and Construction Trades Department (AFL- CIO) Building and Construction Trades Department (AFL- CIO) International Brotherhood of Boilermakers International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Industrial Union Council (AFL-CIO) Industrial Union Council (AFL-CIO) United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters Environmental Defense Fund Environmental Defense Fund Project Sponsors: Available on 11/18 at: http://www.cggc.duke.edu/environment/climatesolutions/

17. Window Components Raw Materials Gas Filling Low-E, Solar Control Coatings Lumber Aluminum Polystyrene Foam Other Components -Backer Rod -Flange Fiberglass Silver Vinyl Argon Frames Sill, Sash, Stop, & Stool Nickel Titanium Dioxide Chromium Nitrate Silica Insulating Spacer Flat Glass Panes Krypto High Performance Windows

18. Components Manufacturers Window Manufacturers Installation (Contractors) Consumer Market Raw Materials Top Window Manufacturers Jeld-Wen: (OR) 25,000 employees, $ 2,900 million sales Pella Co.: (IA) 9,000 employees, $1,530 million sales Andersen: (MN) 9001 employees, $3,000 million sales Milgard Windows: (WA, CA) 3,607 employees, $1,227.1 million sales Atrium Windows and Doors: (TX) 520 employees, $120.6 million sales Gorell Enterprises (PA) 280 employees, $72.2 million sales Alpen (co) Residential Construction Companies (Professional Installation) D.R. Horton (TX) 6,231 Employees Lennar (FL) 6,934 Employees Pulte Homes (MI) 8,500 Employees Centex (TX) 11,418 Employees Gas Fills: Praxair: (CT) 27,992 employees Air Liquide: France Air Products and Chemicals: (PA) 21,500 employees Airgas: (PA) 14, 500 employees Low-E Coatings Seki-Sui-Lec: (Japan) Emirates Glass: (Dubai) CPFilms: (VA) Lumber Weyerehouse Co.(WA), Jeld-Wen (OR), Pella Co.(IA) Chromium Elements Chromium (TX and NC) Silica U.S. Silica Co., Wedron Silica Co.(IL), Shore Mountains Silica (TN) Vinyl Dow Chemical Co., E.I. du Pont Other Components: Backer Rod, Flange Leading U.S. Window Retailers Lowes: (NC) 160,000 employees Home Depot: (GA) 331,000 employees 84 Lumber: (PA) 9,500 Employees Manufacturer Retail Stores/ Showrooms Nickel Russia, Canada, Australia, Indonesia Spacer Edgetech I.G.: (OH) 50 employees GED Integrated Solutions: (OH) 110 employees TruSeal Technologies: (OH) 40 employees Other: Krypton, Titanium dioxide, Silver Frames: Most frames are made on-site at the finished product manufacturer: Pella, Jeld-Wen, Milgard Polystyrene Foam Owens Corning (OH), Carpenter Co. (VA), Foamex Intl. (PA) Aluminum Alcoa Inc., A.M. Castle Argon Praxair (CT), Air Products and Chemicals (PA) Professional Installation Contractors Within Each State Research & Development: Manufacturers: Many component and window manufacturers employ research engineers (ex: Pella has over 300 engineers; CPF Films has an R&D department) Industry Organizations: Energy Star Retailers Fiberglass U.S., China Flat Glass Corning, Inc: (NY) 313 employees Cardinal Insulating Glass (ND) 280 employees Pilkington Glass Co.: (OH) 300 employees

19. U.S. Component and Window Manufacturers

20. LED Lighting Manufacturing Companies

21. Status of U.S. Policy Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities. – Sir Winston Churchill

22. PCAP Mission PCAP Mission Provide the 44 th President of the United States with a comprehensive plan to take bold action on climate change within 100 days.

23. Background Most comprehensive Most comprehensive climate action plan yet Two-year, $2 million project Two-year, $2 million project Wirth Chair, UC-Denver Wirth Chair, UC-Denver Sources of proposals: Sources of proposals: Science & policy experts Science & policy experts Advisory Committee members Advisory Committee members Original research Original research Current & former federal Current & former federal

24. National Advisory Committee Ray Anderson, Founder & CEO, Interface Inc. Ray Anderson, Founder & CEO, Interface Inc. Dr. D. James Baker, former NOAA Administrator Dr. D. James Baker, former NOAA Administrator Scott Bernstein, Center for Neighborhood Technologies Scott Bernstein, Center for Neighborhood Technologies April Bucksbaum, Baum Foundation April Bucksbaum, Baum Foundation Dianne Dillon-Ridgley, Chair, Plains Justice Dianne Dillon-Ridgley, Chair, Plains Justice Brian Castelli, VP, Alliance to Save Energy Brian Castelli, VP, Alliance to Save Energy Boyd Gibbons, past president, Johnson Foundation Boyd Gibbons, past president, Johnson Foundation Gary Hart, U.S. Sen. (ret) Gary Hart, U.S. Sen. (ret) Sheila Slocum Hollis, Partner Duane Morris LLP Sheila Slocum Hollis, Partner Duane Morris LLP Van Jones, President & Founder, Ella Baker Center for Human Rights Van Jones, President & Founder, Ella Baker Center for Human Rights John Petersen, Arlington Institute John Petersen, Arlington Institute Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism Solutions Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism Solutions Michael Northrop, Rockefeller Bros. Fund Michael Northrop, Rockefeller Bros. Fund Dr. David Orr, Oberlin College Dr. David Orr, Oberlin College Theodore Roosevelt IV, Pew Center Theodore Roosevelt IV, Pew Center Larry Schweiger, President, National Wildlife Federation Larry Schweiger, President, National Wildlife Federation Jeremy Symons, National Wildlife Federation Jeremy Symons, National Wildlife Federation Dr. Gus Speth, Dean, School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University Dr. Gus Speth, Dean, School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University Adm. Richard Truly (USN ret), former NASA Administrator & NREL Director Adm. Richard Truly (USN ret), former NASA Administrator & NREL Director Heidi VanGenderen, Chief Climate Advisor, Colorado Governors Office Heidi VanGenderen, Chief Climate Advisor, Colorado Governors Office

25. Comprehensive 1. Economic policy 2. Climate policy 3. Energy policy 4. National security 5. Agriculture/rural development 6. Buildings 7. Transportation 8. Federal carbon management 9. Natural resource stewardship 10. Ocean ecology 11. Freshwater resources 12. Equity 13. Adaptation 14. Public health 15. State/Local action 16. International policy 17. Presidential leadership

26. Presidential Climate Action Plan www.climateactionproject.com

27. PCAP by the Numbers Action items Action items 181 recommendations 181 recommendations $160 billion/year $160 billion/year Executive authority analysis Executive authority analysis 96 climate statutes 96 climate statutes Landmark environmental laws Landmark environmental laws 140 federal court cases 140 federal court cases 370 executive orders from 1937 370 executive orders from 1937 Climate Plum Book Climate Plum Book 200 senior climate-critical positions 200 senior climate-critical positions 250 nominees 250 nominees

28. Among the issues… Carbon pricing Carbon pricing Perverse subsidies Perverse subsidies Fed vs. state leadership Fed vs. state leadership Carbon lock-in Carbon lock-in Capital Capital International expectations International expectations

29. Carbon Pricing President-elect Obama President-elect Obama Economy-wide cap & Trade Economy-wide cap & Trade 100% auction 100% auction EPA regulation EPA regulation GHG = 1990 by 2020 GHG = 1990 by 2020 80% cut by 2050 80% cut by 2050 PCAP PCAP Economy-wide cap & trade Economy-wide cap & trade Upstream allowances Upstream allowances 100% auction 100% auction No off-ramps/safety valves No off-ramps/safety valves Reductions measured in Reductions measured in absolute tons 25-30% cut by 2020 25-30% cut by 2020 80%+ cut by 2050 80%+ cut by 2050

30. Renewable Power President-elect Obama President-elect Obama 25% by 2025 25% by 2025 $15 billion/year $15 billion/year PCAP PCAP 30% 2020 30% 2020 $30 billion/year $30 billion/year $1 billion platinum carrot $1 billion platinum carrot Energy storage Energy storage Plug-in hybrids Plug-in hybrids Cellulosic ethanol Cellulosic ethanol

31. Energy Efficiency Critical for Coping President-elect Obama President-elect Obama Reduce consumption 15% below projected demand by 2020 Reduce consumption 15% below projected demand by 2020 PCAP PCAP 25% cut from todays use by 2020 25% cut from todays use by 2020 50% cut by 2050 50% cut by 2050

32. Coal-fired Generation President-elect Obama President-elect Obama Aggressive R&D on CCS Aggressive R&D on CCS 5 demonstration plants 5 demonstration plants PCAP PCAP Use efficiency/renewables to avoid new conventional plants Use efficiency/renewables to avoid new conventional plants Clean = life-cycle CO 2 Clean = life-cycle CO 2 Explore converting existing plants to natural gas Explore converting existing plants to natural gas CCS R&D CCS R&D Continue but dont wait Continue but dont wait Increase industry cost-share Increase industry cost-share Continually evaluate cost- effectiveness Continually evaluate cost- effectiveness

33. Nuclear Power Avoid problem-switching President-elect Obama President-elect Obama Solve storage, proliferation, safety problems Solve storage, proliferation, safety problems PCAP PCAP Same as Obama Same as Obama Meantime, implement clean energy surge Meantime, implement clean energy surge

34. Transportation Beyond Futurama President-elect Obama President-elect Obama Deploy 1 million plug-in hybrids by 2015 Increase CAFE 4%/year Offer $7,000 tax credit for advanced vehicle purchases Provide $4 billion in retooling tax credits for automakers Support liquids from coal if 20% less carbon than gasoline PCAP PCAP Increase CAFE to 50 mpg by 2025 200 mpg by 2050 Reform Surface Transportation Program Offer $1 billion in platinum carrot awards No liquids from coal

35. Economic Policy Invest in the New Economy McKinsey & Company McKinsey & Company 10-fold increase in carbon productivity in 4 decades 10-fold increase in carbon productivity in 4 decades Comparable in magnitude to labor productivity increases of Industrial Revolution… Comparable in magnitude to labor productivity increases of Industrial Revolution… But in one-third the time But in one-third the time President-elect Obama President-elect Obama $150 billion investments over 10 years to produce 5 million jobs $150 billion investments over 10 years to produce 5 million jobs PCAP PCAP $100 billion investment over 2 years = 2 million jobs $100 billion investment over 2 years = 2 million jobs Economic development grants for climate enterprise zones Economic development grants for climate enterprise zones Reform international aid & trade to spur emerging global markets for green energy Reform international aid & trade to spur emerging global markets for green energy

36. States & Localities Create Intergovernmental Action Plan $1 billion/year for states that… $1 billion/year for states that… Decouple rates Decouple rates Map renewables & extend grid Map renewables & extend grid Promote distributed power & co- generation Promote distributed power & co- generation Create interconnection standards Create interconnection standards Implement net metering Implement net metering Use feed-in tariffs Use feed-in tariffs Implement climate action plans Implement climate action plans Establish RPSs Establish RPSs $2 billion/year Energy Efficiency & Conservation block grants $2 billion/year Energy Efficiency & Conservation block grants $1.4 billion/year Weatherization Assistance Program $1.4 billion/year Weatherization Assistance Program States Climate Change Action Plans Information current as of August 2008. States Climate Change Action Plans Information current as of August 2008. Completed: 32 AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, HI, IA, IL, KY, ME, MD, MA, MN, MO, MT, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, UT, VT, WA, WI In Progress: 6 AK, AR, ID, KS, MI, VA No Policy in Place: 13

37. International Climate Action Strong domestic policy = Leadership President-elect Obama President-elect Obama Join actively in post-Kyoto negotiations Join actively in post-Kyoto negotiations Provide incentives for reductions by developing nations Provide incentives for reductions by developing nations Create Global Energy Forum G8+5 Create Global Energy Forum G8+5 Cooperate with China/India to reduce oil demand Cooperate with China/India to reduce oil demand PCAP PCAP Send representative to Poland Send representative to Poland Commit to holding warming to 2 o C or less Commit to holding warming to 2 o C or less Negotiate bilateral pact with China Negotiate bilateral pact with China Champion reforms in aid & trade Champion reforms in aid & trade Propose OPIC Propose OPIC Meet with Congressional leaders early to collaborate on pre- Copenhagen plans Meet with Congressional leaders early to collaborate on pre- Copenhagen plans

38. Questions for Congress The international community is looking for an early signal of U.S. commitment. Will Congress move cap & trade legislation in 2009? If not, what measures will it support to demonstrate U.S. commitment?

39. Questions for Congress Should we allow the construction of any more conventional coal-fired power plants? If so, how do we reconcile new plants with need to reduce CO 2 ?

40. Questions for Congress European Union & other nations call for industrial nations to cut GHG emissions 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 Thats far short of any legislation in Congress or proposed during presidential campaign. Can the U.S. have credibility in international negotiations without the higher goal?

41. Questions for Congress If you support more oil production and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, how do you reconcile those two contradictory goals?

42. Questions for Congress On the one hand, theres general agreement we should correct market signals by pricing carbon. On the other hand, market signals are distorted by fossil energy subsidies. Will you push for an end to public subsidies for the coal, gas and oil industries?

43. Questions for Congress The first big opportunity to make federal policy more climate friendly next year will be the reauthorization of the surface transportation act Will you shift the emphasis from building roads to building mass transit systems, high speed rail, and transit-oriented communities?

44. Questions for Congress Although everyone talks about energy independence, the U.S. has little control over oil prices or supplies. More domestic production will have little effect. What can the U.S. do to reduce this global vulnerability?

45. Questions for Congress Climate scientists tell us we need action far more aggressive than any contemplated by Congress so far. How do we close the gap?

46. Needed: Bold Action Soon Reduce federal emissions 30% by 2020, 80- 90% by 2050 Reduce federal emissions 30% by 2020, 80- 90% by 2050 Cut oil consumption in half by 2025 Cut oil consumption in half by 2025 Offset all U.S. oil imports by 2040 Offset all U.S. oil imports by 2040 Achieve zero-net-carbon buildings by 2030 Achieve zero-net-carbon buildings by 2030 Reduce energy consumption 25% by 2020 Reduce energy consumption 25% by 2020 Obtain 30% of electricity from renewables by 2020 Obtain 30% of electricity from renewables by 2020 Reduce vehicle miles traveled 20% by 2020, 50% by 2050 Reduce vehicle miles traveled 20% by 2020, 50% by 2050 De-carbonize federal subsidies De-carbonize federal subsidies De-carbonize international development policies De-carbonize international development policies Form Organization of Petroleum Importing Countries (OPIC) Form Organization of Petroleum Importing Countries (OPIC) Require carbon impact statements Require carbon impact statements

47. bill.becker@cudenver.edu www.climateactionproject.com