1. MINGGU KE 13: ANALISIS EKONOMI PENGEMBANGAN PRODUK

2. ELEMENTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (ULRICH, 2000)+$
Sales Revenue
Cumulative
Inflow or
Outflow ($)
TIME
Development Cost
Ramp-up Costs
Marketing and
Support Costs +$
Production Cost
TYPICAL CASH FLOWS FOR A SUCCESFUL NEW PRODUCT

3. WHEN SHOULD ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BE PERFORMED? (ULRICH, 2000)
GO/NO-GO MILESTONES
OPERATIONAL DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT DECISIONS

4. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS PROCESS (ULRICH, 2000)
BUILD A BASE CASE FINANCIAL MODEL
PERFORM A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
USE THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO UNDERSTAND TRADE-OFFS
CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITIVE FACTORS ON PROJECT
SUCCESS

5. TAHAP 1 : BUILD A BASE-CASE FINANCIAL MODEL
ESTIMATE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CASH INFLOWS AND
OUTFLOWS
2. COMPUTE THE NET PRESENT VALUE OF THE CASH FLOWS

6. TAHAP 2 : PERFORM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
INTERNAL FACTORS :
Development Expense
Investigation cost
Development cost
Development Speed
Investigation time
Development time
Production Cost
Product Performance
EXTERNAL FACTORS :
Product Price
Sales Volume
Competitive Environment
PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Net Present Value

7. TAHAP 3 : USE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO UNDERSTAND PROJECT TRADE-OFFS
PRODUCT
COST
DEVELOPMENT
TIME
DEVELOPMENT
COST
PRODUCT
PERFORMANCE
POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN INTERNALLY DRIVEN FACTORS

8. LIMITATION OF QUATITATIVE ANALYSIS
IT FOCUSES ONLY ON MEASURABLE QUANTITIES
IT DEPENDS ON VALIDITY OF ASSUMPTIONS AND DATA
BUREAUCRACY REDUCES PRODUCTIVITY

9. LANGKAH 4 : CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITATIVE FACTORS ON PROJECT SUCCESS (1)
FIRM
MARKET
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
THE BROADER CONTEXT OF A DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

10. 3. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT
LANGKAH 4 : CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITATIVE FACTORS ON PROJECT SUCCESS (2)
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE FIRM AS A WHOLE
* EKSTERNALITIES
* STRATEGIC FIT
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MARKET
COMPETITORS
CUSTOMERS
SUPPLIERS
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT
* MAJOR ECONOMIC SHIFTS
* GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
* SOCIAL TRENDS