1. Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research
CSCOR’s National
Hypoxia Programs
Alan Lewitus
Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research
NOAA/NOS/NCCOS
Briefing/Workshop on Narragansett Bay Hypoxia and Associated Issues
URI Narragansett Bay Campus, 3 May 2012

2. CSCOR Mission
To lead the development of predictive, multi-disciplinary, coastal ecosystem-scale research to support sound management decisions
develops and improves predictive capabilities for managing the Nation's use of its coastal resources through competitive research programs.
supports efforts to translate the results of its research investments, and those of others, into accessible and useful information for coastal managers, planners, lawmakers, and the public to help balance the needs of economic growth with those of conserving resources.

3. Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystems and Hypoxia Assessment Program (NGOMEX)
characterize the magnitude and extent of the hypoxic zone;
develop quantitative models to predict the extent of the hypoxic zone given varying levels of nutrient inputs, physical forcing, and other factors that control hypoxia
develop quantitative models to determine the impacts of the hypoxic zone on ecologically and economically important living resources

4. 2008 Action Plan Coastal Goal
Coastal Goal: Subject to the availability of additional resources, we strive to reduce or make significant progress toward reducing the five-year running average areal extent of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone to less than 5,000 square kilometers by the year 2015 through implementation of…actions…to reduce the annual discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus into the Gulf.
Nutrient reductions are the basis for meeting the Coastal goal of the Action Plan; models predict a 45% reduction of N and P is needed; unlikely to attain goal but making significant progress would be a good step toward improving water quality and ecosystem restoration 4

5. NGOMEX Objective: characterize hypoxic zone
LUMCON 25+ year long-term monitoring led by N. Rabalais
Metric for Gulf Hypoxia Task Force
Action Plan Goal
Year
Area (square miles)
Surveys have occurred annually since 1985 and provide a long-term data set through which to gage progress towards the 5,000 km2 goal of the Gulf Hypoxia Task Force. Strong importance to continue these surveys to maintain continuity.

6. NGOMEX Objective: models on causes of hypoxia
Models Used for Management
NGOMEX Objective: models on causes of hypoxia
Predictive models:
inform management goal-setting
monitor progress of management directives
validate benefit of conservation practices
GULF OF
MEXICO
N Load Reduction
Hypoxic Zone Area (km)
5000
10000
15000
20000 10 20 30 40 50 60
Action Plan Goal
Model ensemble suggests a % reduction in N loads to meet Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan Goal
Develop nutrient reduction target for achieving Coastal Goal
Based on 3 NOAA-sponsored models, see Scavia et al. 2003, 2004

7. Objective: Models on Impacts of Hypoxia
Hypoxia is causing endocrine disruption and reproductive impairment
Oocyte>350 μm
Fecundity
Hypoxic zone sites
N1 N2 N3 C5 C6 C7 F3 F4 F5
EARLY results of Atlantic croaker population modeling
80 years of severe hypoxia may cause a 31% decline in abundance
“Realistic” hypoxic conditions may cause an 11-13% decline
Taking into account environmental conditions as well as annual effects to reproduction, can develop spatially explicit, long-term croaker population model. Using the Hetland and Fennel 3D hypoxia model to drive the population model indicated that the decline may be on the higher end of the estimates (20-30%). This is extremely preliminary
Thomas and Rahman, Proceedings Royal Society B 2012

8. Coastal Hypoxia Research Program (CHRP)
Provide research results and modeling tools which will be used by coastal resource managers to assess alternative management strategies for preventing or mitigating the impacts of hypoxia on coastal ecosystems .

9. Coastal Hypoxia Research Program (CHRP)
Chesapeake Bay
Scavia et al. Nutrient susceptibility of mid-Atl, SE Atl, and Gulf of Mexico estuaries.
Green Bay
Klump et al. Hypoxia response to nutrient inputs and climate change
Kemp et al. Modeling hypoxia response to climate and nutrients
Breitburg et al. Ecosystem response to shallow water hypoxia

10. Narragansett Bay CHRP Projects Oviatt et al. Codiga et al.
Relative contribution of various nitrogen pollution sources
Chesapeake Bay
Gulf of Mexico
Narragansett Bay
Oviatt/Codiga:
Model development to advance understanding of causes of hypoxia - role of nutrient loading and circulation processs
Involvement of management community
Transition modeling tools to operations