1. NS3040 Fall Term 2018 TPP Under Japanese Leadership
William Pesek, How Abe can make TPP great again, Nikki Asian Review, October 22, 2018

2. Japan-TPP Overview
After Trump withdrew the U.S. from the TPP, Japan has assumed leadership
Japan’s Objectives
Save free trade and
Promote economic growth in the region
Member countries are ratifying a TPP-11 as U.S.-China trade war escalates
TPP now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership (CPATPP)
Trump has tried to pressure member countries into bi-lateral deals while Abe wants to expand the CPATPP

3. Abe’s Plans I
Abe responded to failure of original TPP by developing plans B, C and D that could stand as a bulwark against U.S. protectionism.
Plan B
Keep TPP alive with the 10 remaining countries
Without Japan, TPP did not have a chance to survive
By late October 2018 Australia joined Japan, Mexico and Singapore in ratifying the TPP
Plan C
A comprehensive free trade deal with the EU
Eliminates levies that cost Japan and the 28 EU countries about $1.2 billion a year

4. Abe’s Plans II
Plan D
Extending TPP in ways that recreate the $19 trillion U.S. economy in the aggregate
Targets for inclusion are
South Korea,
Indonesia,
The Philippines and
India
Currently South Korea and Indonesia may be open to inclusion
South Korea wants to join so country can
Curb monopolistic ways of family-owned conglomerates (CHABOL) and
Create more space for startups

5. Abe’s Plans III Both countries having trouble with China
Korea still shaking off mainland boycotts related to its hosting U.S. missile-defense systems
Indonesia faces
Chinese bullying in the South China Sea
Many strings attached to Chinese aid or market access
Abe has been working to counter China’s dominance in Southeast Asia
India would be a major coup for the TPP

6. Expanded TPP As of now reworked TPP amounts to
$10 trillion commercial business or
15% of global trade
With India and Indonesia TPP would increase by $4.9 trillion
With a larger TPP, organization becomes
Attractive to push back against U.S. protectionism
Worth costs of overcoming domestic opposition
Possible developments
Would entice Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand to join
Colombia and even U.K have expressed interest
India, Korea, and the Philippines would find it now makes sense to try and push back against domestic interests

7. Assessment
At its core TPP is currently a counterweight to Chinese dominance and predatory trade methods
However a logic in eventually including China
China can avoid WTO rules
TPP aims to impose stricter standards – particularly in area of intellectual property
For now the revamped TPP is
Increasing Japan’s role as an economic leader
Giving Abenomics a greater shot at success