1. ReVA Regional Vulnerability Assessment
Informing Decisions Through Synthesis and Forecasting
ReVA is a cross-ORD (all labs/centers), interagency program (TVA, USFS, USGS), that has been funded primarily by the interagency Integrated Science for Ecosystem Challenges (ISEC) initiative since ReVA is EMAP’s sister program and uses monitoring data to develop models of resource exposure.
Elizabeth R. Smith, Ph.D.
US EPA, Office of Research and Development
National Exposure Research Laboratory

2. Problem
Given multiple stresses affecting multiple media simultaneously, how can limited resources be targeted to maximize benefits and minimize problems?
How do we incorporate various perspectives to balance among competing priorities?
Clients
EPA Regional Offices
EPA Program Offices
State and Local Decision-makers
....Anyone faced with this and no tools at hand to do it well...

3. Integrated Science for Ecosystem Challenges (ISEC) – Strategic Priorities
Synthesize existing information
Improve understanding of effects of multiple stresses
Improve assessments and forecasts under alternative policy and management options

4. ReVA’s Research Partnerships: Making use of Available Expertise
All of ORD’s Labs and Centers
Other Federal Agencies – USGS, USFS, TVA
Academia – Florida Atlantic University, Penn State, University of Maryland, Duke University, North Carolina State University, University of NC - Charlotte

5. ReVA’s Client Partnerships: Engaging Decision-makers to Ensure We Meet Their Needs
EPA Program Offices – Office of Air, Office of Water, Office of Environmental Information
EPA Regional Offices: the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Mid-West
State government agencies – Maryland, and Pennsylvania
Cross-jurisdictional alliances – North and South Carolina Councils of Government
To prioritize areas for restoration, we are combining the model results of sediment loading with information on where wildlife habitat could be improved. Once areas are selected, we will work with CVI to develop finer scaled models that refine our view of what restoration will work well and where.
Feedback
Demonstrations
Tech transfer

6. How are Decisions Made to Reduce Risk for Vulnerable Ecosystems?
Multiple Criteria
Stakeholder Input, Politics, Economics, Feasibility, Scientific Understanding
Evaluation of Trade-offs
Costs/ Benefits of Alternatives 8 6

7. ReVA is…
Risk assessment research – comparative, cumulative, multi-scale
Visualizing spatial patterns of condition and impact
Projecting potential impacts from major drivers of ecological change
Identifying current and future environmental vulnerabilities
Enabling trade-off analyses through “what if” scenarios
Informing diagnosis of current conditions
Linking environmental health with economic and human health
Working directly with clients

8. ReVA Supports Research on:
New Indicators
New Spatial Models
Integration Methods
Socio-Economics
Decision Tools
Quantifying Error and Uncertainty
Issues of Scale
Information Technology

9. Making Information Accessible: ReVA’s Decision-Support Tools
Multiple clients, multiple approaches, multiple tools
Both web-based and PC-based
New tools and improved existing tools
ATtILLA
ReVA’s
Web-based
Decision-Support
System
As we have clients at all levels (EPA HQ down to local communities) we recognize that there are differing levels of comfort with computer platforms, software, etc. So we are developing a variety of decision tools and working to improve some existing ones. The MIRA tool si one that was develpoed by R3’s Air Protection Div. And we are partnering with them to add sensitive ecosystems and improve estiamtes of where sensitive human populations are. They, in turn are working with us to develop future scenarios of air dep based on management options. The ATtILA tool in the upper right is another existing tool we’re improving. ATtILA is a landscape analysis tool developed by NERL that is being used already across the country. We will be adding the models developed in ReVA to allow the users to do “what if” scenario analyses. The decision tool in the bottom right hand corner is more designed for local communities in that it is PC-based and allows the user to view their area of interest along with areas immediately surrounding it. The middle tool is where we’ve focused our efforts the most – this is a web-based statistical tool that is flexible enough to be used in any region with any scale data.

10. Steps in the Process: Acquire/prepare relevant spatial data
Develop models, project current conditions
Synthesize into information
Forecast future conditions
Assess implications
Engage Decision-makers: look at real-life decisions, alternative futures
Make information accessible
Improve, refine approaches
Look ahead to future needs, opportunities
1998
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We are here

11. ReVA is estimating condition across the map using existing data
An example of using existing monitoring data,(here USGS’s NAWQA monitoring data to estimate the probability of exceeding a specified threshold of nitrate in shallow water aquifers) to develop statistical models that estimate conditions across the map. These models also provide estimates of error and uncertainty associated with the condition estimate which tell us both the level of certainty we have with the risk we are identifying, and can also be used to determine where additional monitoring is needed.

12. Providing indices of relative condition and vulnerability
ReVA synthesizes environmental data and model results to inform decision-making
High Vulnerability
Low Vulnerability
Providing indices of relative condition and vulnerability

13. A Need for New Approaches
Looking Ahead:
A Need for New Approaches
Despite compliance with environmental regulations, biological populations are declining.
Major drivers of change include:
Land use change
Resource extractions
Pollution and pollutants
Exotic invasive species
Climate change
ReVA, like EMAP is being piloted in the mid-Atlantic region and thus contributes to the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) (worth noting that ReVA will also be followed by a third ORD ecological research effort piloted in the MA, headed by NRMRL: EcoRiM (ecological risk management)). This publication is MAIA’s most recent publication and it considers what EMAP has shown in the MA region. The bottom line is that despite the fact that there is very good compliance with environmental regulations throughout the region, biological populations across the board are in decline. EMAP implicates several possible causes for these declines. REVA is undertaking reseach to develop models in each of these areas so that we can estimate current exposures as well as possible future scenarios, allowing proactive decision-making.

14. Future Scenarios – Drivers of Change (Futures, Part 1)
Land use change –
Bird migration scenarios
Groundwater vulnerability
Landscape indicators
N and P loadings
Mining – permitted areas
Risk of timber harvest (not yet incorporated)
“Clear Skies” scenarios for ozone, PM, N and S
Human population demographics/ quality of life indicators
Risk of NIS (with/without climate change)
[ Projected change in forest species (climate change) – future work ]
Enabling insights into cumulative/aggregate impacts

15. Value of Approach: Futures Analysis - Results
Under projected future conditions, 3 watersheds drop out of the best categories – one on the coast, the others in W VA – for the same reasons: loss of forest habitat and invasive exotic species.

16. Value of Approach: Futures Analysis - Results
Most vulnerable area is the foothills region. This result despite using an urban growth model for land use change

17. Applying ReVA Approach and Information to Decision-making (Futures, part 2)
Evaluating alternative “Smart Growth” strategies
Identifying where to set aside lands for conservation
Assessing impacts of alternative incentives for pollution prevention
Investigating solutions for “cross boundary” issues associated with air and water quality (e.g. cross-media trading)
Estimating impacts of new road development (water quality, air quality, quality of life)
Tracking progress/performance

18. Evaluating Alternative Risk Management Options:
Linking Nutrient Loadings with Restoration Potential
Scenario with restoration
Current Loadings
10% increase in riparian forest
Scenario with continued development
Another example of alternative scenarios using a ReVA model that estiamtes sediment loading due to land cover and biophysical characteristics. The upper right shows which watersheds would respond to an arbitrary goal of increasing riparian forests by 10%, while the map on bottom right shows which watersheds would decline further with a 10% decrease in riparian cover attributable to continued development.
10% decrease in riparian forest
Jones, et al., Landscape Ecology

19. Turning Spatial Data into Information for Decision Makers
Web-based, interactive integration and visualization
Data diagnostics and data preparation
Integration of data in selectable subgroups
Weighting in support of multi-criteria decision
making
Data access (summarized by reporting unit)

20. Need to Address Multiple Assessment Questions
What Makes an Ecosystem “Vulnerable”?
Condition
Pristine, Good, Stressed, Degraded
Sustainability
f (ecosystem sensitivity; stressors affecting)
Value to Society
Aesthetics, Economic Opportunities, Goods and Services
What Drives Risk Management Decisions?
Feasibility, Clear Options, Economics
What works where?, Range of method applicability

21. Current Uses of Approaches and Tools
R3 – Strategic Planning – Vulnerable populations, Watershed health, Responsible development - outreach and partnerships
MD DNR, PA DEP, Baltimore County – outreach, identification of priority areas for protection, alternative scenarios of development
SEQL project – alternative scenarios of development, opportunities for cross-media trading, focus on quality of life

22. Future Work in ReVA
Water supply modeling with USGS – Mid Atlantic (Region 3) and SEQL
Initiate work in SE (Region 4) – pilot on vulnerability of human and wildlife populations to air toxics
Pilot work in Midwest (Region 5) – 1) decision support for hazardous wastes mitigation – Net Environmental Benefits Assessment; and 2) IT research – webservices in support of compliance reporting and analysis for state water data

23. Research Issues/Needs
Indicator/ Model Domains of Scale
Changing Reporting Units (reaggregation of data, model results)
Quantifying error and uncertainty
Feedbacks and interactions
Incorporating thresholds
Minimizing degradation, optimizing opportunities
“Translators” where data don’t address questions specifically

24. Research Opportunities
Nested broad – to fine –scale applications (e.g. Baltimore Co., MD, Mid-Atlantic; SEQL, Southeast)
New methods to interpolate (e.g. Bayesian methods)
Model output as surface maps (finer-scale)
Cross- media trading
Estimating error

25. Getting to Outcomes Decisions incorporate ReVA approach and information
Client partnerships at regional, state, and local levels
Demonstrations of application of approach and information at different scales
Multiple clients – Multiple decision support tools
Easy access to data and tools

26. Remaining Agenda Data and models Integration Forecasting Applications
Acquiring and preparing spatial data; Developing and applying statistical landscape models
Integration
Synthesis into Information
Data Issues, Assessment Questions
Forecasting
Drivers of Change
Applications
Engaging Decision-makers, addressing real decisions
Making Information Accessible
Multiple Decision-makers, multiple needs