1. Pacific Northwest Power System and Wind Power Development
Jeff King
Northwest Power & Conservation Council
June 2010
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2. The Western interconnected power system
Strong transmission interconnections:
British Columbia (2000 MW)
Bay Area (4900 MW)
LA Metro Area (3100 MW)
Pacific Northwest Region
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3. WECC Balancing Authorities & ISOs
Alberta ESO
WECC Balancing Authorities & ISOs
NaturEner Power Watch
California ISO
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4. Northwest generating capacity (MW)*
* Operating and under construction July 2010
** 16% of regional peak hourly load
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5. Northwest* generating capacity additions
* WA, OR, ID & MT (incl. MRO)
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6. Cumulative Northwest* wind plant additions
* WA, OR, ID & MT (excl. MRO)
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7. What drives wind development?
Lowest-cost renewable available in bulk quantity
Renewable portfolio standards (WA, OR, MT, CA)
Flexible California RPS energy delivery requirements
Federal and state financial incentives (PTC, ITC, BETC)
(Generally) quick project development and construction
Rural economic benefits + green tinge = strong political support
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8. Demand for RPS qualifying resources8 8
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9. PNW wind: Equity ownership or long-term contracts vs
PNW wind: Equity ownership or long-term contracts vs. TRECs (Jan 2011, aMW)
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10. Northwest wind power: Balancing Authorities
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11. BPA Balancing Authority wind capacity
BPA BA min load
BPA BA peak load
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12. Northwest windpower development
Operating
Under construction
Planned
Area of legend symbols represents 200 MW capacity
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13. Why is wind capacity concentrated east of the Columbia River Gorge?
Reasonable (though not world-class) wind quality
Former surplus of transmission capacity to PNW load centers
Head of interties to California
Compatible land use (dryland wheat and rangeland)
Favorable political climate (most counties)
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14. Gorge winds driven by Pacific storm fronts
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15. Northwest wind power issues
Wind capacity is geographically concentrated, leading to volatile behavior (large and rapid ramps)
Wind capacity is concentrated in the Bonneville Balancing Authority
Bonneville needs little wind for its native load; wind capacity will soon exceed Bonneville's minimum load
Northwest wind is primarily driven by Pacific storm fronts, uncorrelated with load
Storm front + high spring hydro + low load + spill constraints can lead to excess generation
Production incentives + REC revenues discourage curtailment
Demand for wind power increasingly driven by California RPS
California RPS policy requires energy delivery only within the calendar year, so does not encourage transmission investment
Future California RPS policy is uncertain
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