1. Cheng shiming National TB Center in China May,3, 2004
Surveillance information and prevalence survey of tuberculosis in China
Cheng shiming
National TB Center in China
May,3, 2004

2. Latest TB indicators (year:2002)
Case type
No.
Registration
rate(1/100,000) %
New SS+
194972
15.06
46.5
New SS-
185840
14.35
44.4
New cases without sputum
38041
2.94
9.1
Total
418853
32.35
100
Population of 2002: 1,294,867,000

3. Latest TB indicators (year:2002)
% re-treatment cases out of total new plus re-treatment
16.7%
% population with access to DOTS
77.6%
DOTS cure rate
New SS+
94.0%
Re-treatment SS+
88.2%
DOTS success rate
96.1%
93.1%
DOTS case detection rates
27%

4. Trends in notification

5. Provincial data (year:2002) (1)
Rate(1/100,000)

6. Provincial data (year:2002) (2)
Rate(1/100,000)

7. Treatment outcomes of new SS+ case (%)
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Cured
94.9
95.7
95.2
95.0
92.8
Completed
0.6
0.5
2.7
Defaulted
1.1
0.9
Failed
0.4
Died
0.8
Transferred out
0.7
Non evaluated
1.7
1.2

8. Mortality Year Sample size No. of total death No. died of PTB
PTB mortality rate(1/100,000)
1984/85
6591
342
31.0
1990
7913
294
19.1
2000
420036
2309 37
8.8
TB ranked the ninth of various causes of death in 2000.
Data source: nationwide TB epidemic survey

9. Overall assessment of national information system
Country coverage: 100% counties/districts
Quality of data, timeliness of reporting:
Key information of the reports from 90% county level implementation units were acceptable after confirming
Delay of some counties’ reports
Variability of indicators between provinces: Significant differences on key indicators in provinces
Problems identified: need to be improved on
Report: more complete, timely and accurate data
Utilization: more analysis and feedback

10. Prevalence surveys in 2000 (1)
Sample size: 365,097
Screening procedures:
Suspects examination: Children had an induration ≥10mm
of PPD test; Adult with ≥ 3 weeks cough and/or abnormal fluorograph
Diagnosis of PTB among suspects: chest X-ray, sputum smear and culture
Detected smear positive cases per 100,000: 122
Detected all cases per 100,000: 367
% smear positive: 33.3%
% known cases among smear positive: 41.4%

11. Prevalence surveys in 2000 (2)
Difficulties encountered:
Insufficient funds: only 8 provinces got provinical prevalence
Increased floating population:the investigation rate based on the sampling population was 84.7%
Lessons learned:
Implementation: 1) Joint work at central and local level; 2) Support from WHO
Results: More evidences found in the survey for evaluation the past NTP
Correction to the estimated case detection rate:
Supplemental support evidence for the estimation

12. Tuberculosis infection rate (%)
Year
0-14 group
7 group
14 group
1979
8.8
7.2
17.9
1984/85
9.6
7.8
20.7
1990
7.5
6.6
13.4
2000
9.0
12.4

13. Annual Risk of Infection (ARI)
Year
ARI (%)
1990
0.80
2000
0.72
Data source: Nationwide TB epidemiological sample survey in 1990 and 2000, respectively

14. Estimation of incidence rate
Estimated rate of smear positive new cases from ARI (in 2000):
0.72×50=36/100,000 (Styblo model)
Estimated case detection rate (in 2002):
15.06/36×100%=42%
Problems encountered:
Only 24% of Children have no BCG inoculation history and scar, so the result from infection isn’t fully representative of China.