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Canadian Ice Service Long Range Forecasting and CanSISE Tom Carrieres Canadian Ice Service.

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Presentation on theme: "Canadian Ice Service Long Range Forecasting and CanSISE Tom Carrieres Canadian Ice Service."— Presentation transcript:

1 Canadian Ice Service Long Range Forecasting and CanSISE Tom Carrieres Canadian Ice Service

2 Page 2 – June 9, 2014 Area of Reponsibility

3 Page 3 – June 9, 2014 MET/NAV AREAS Canada is providing mariners with weather and ice information for two new METNAV areas Russia and Norway have responsibility for the remaining three It is important that this information be harmonised Large increase in responsibility in both time and geography

4 Page 4 – June 9, 2014 Daily charts Image Analyses Climate Charts Statistical analysis Climate products Iceberg charts Bulletins / Warnings Canadian Coast Guard Icebreakers Mariners Scientists Media Public Northern Communities Products and Clients FICN11 CWIS 181450 ICEBERG BULLETIN FOR EAST COAST WATERS AND THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLE AND ITS APPROACHES ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FROM CANADIAN ICE SERVICE IN OTTAWA AT 1500 UTC WEDNESDAY 18 OCTOBER 2000.

5 Page 5 – June 9, 2014 Why this is important to Canadians:

6 Page 6 – June 9, 2014 What does the future hold: Arctic shipping season is lengthening –Increased demand for marine weather and ice information Traditional navigation season earlier in the summer – lasting longer in fall Wider geographic span - Non traditional areas –Southern winter shipping season is not shortening yet southern & northern services beginning to overlap –Inter-seasonal variability in both south and north Increasing demand due to traffic –Resources, tourism, federal fleets METAREA implementation –IMO creation of 5 new MET/NAV AREAS –Year round information required to support the area More reliable ice forecast capacity –Longer lead times for seasonal forecasts –Verification –Reliability Dependency on satellite data –continuity of existing sources –development of new sensors and applications for improved detection as sea ice conditions change Continued and enhanced client engagement –Domestic –International

7 Page 7 – June 9, 2014 CIS Techniques Review recent and current conditions –Current ice conditions –Ice thickness reports –Freezing/melting degree days CMC/CanSIPS air temperature forecasts Identify ice analogs Multiple Linear Regression Optimal Filter Based techniques

8 Page 8 – June 9, 2014 Ice Thicknesses vs Normals (2013) StationCalculated Thickness (cm) End of April (1981-2010) Normal Thickness (cm) Percentage of normal (%) Nain8710682 Iqaluit13515090 Inukjuak12213590 Churchill146144101 Hall Beach16517694 Clyde14916889 Resolute17318793 Eureka20421097 Cambridge Bay17918398 Inuvik163159103

9 Page 9 – June 9, 2014 End of April ice conditions for Hudson Bay Ice conditions Departure from normal Total Concentration Departure from normal Old ice Near normal

10 Page 10 – June 9, 2014 CMC Forecast Temperature Anomaly

11 Page 11 – June 9, 2014 2013 CIS forecast guidance for ice concentration in Hudson Bay No Model Above Below Normal No Model Normal

12 Page 12 – June 9, 2014 Ice cover persisted along Labrador Coast longer than normal Caused by ice/salinity anomalies propagating around sub-polar North Atlantic? 2013 CIS analyzed ice concentration

13 Page 13 – June 9, 2014 red=late----------orange=normal----------green=early Arctic EventsEarliest Event Latest Event Median (1981-2010) Outlook Labrador Coast to Cape Chidley Area – bergy water25 Jun27 Aug21 Jul9-11 Jul Davis Strait to Iqaluit Route – open drift or less23 Jun *New* *21 Aug*19 Jul14-16 Jul Frobisher Bay Area – bergy water9 Jul9 Sep4 Aug30 Jul-1 Aug Davis Strait Area – bergy water21 Jul14 Oct2 Sep13-15 Aug Ungava Bay Area – bergy water2 Jul1 Sep31 Jul14-16 Jul Davis Strait to Nottingham Island Route – bergy water29 Jun5 Sep25 Jul8-10 Jul Hudson Strait Area – bergy water13 Jul9 Sep4 Aug20-22 Jul Labrador Coast / Davis Strait / Hudson Strait Outlook

14 Page 14 – June 9, 2014 red=late----------orange=normal----------green=early Arctic Events Earliest Event Latest Event Median (1981-2010) Outlook Baffin Bay Northern Route – open drift or less – bergy water 10 Jun 13 Jun 18 Aug 15 Sep 13 Jul 27 Jul 26-28 Jun 6-8 Jul Baffin Bay Area – bergy water10 Aug7 Oct6 Sep26-28 Aug Frobisher Bay to Cape Dyer – open drift or less 24 Jun15 Sep25 Jul22-24 Jul Frobisher Bay to Home Bay Route – open drift or less 22 Jul19 Sep5 Aug5-7 Aug Pond Inlet Area – fracture – bergy water 10 Jul 25 Jul 19 Aug 12 Sep 23 Jul 8 Aug 19-21 Jul 6-8 Aug Admiralty Inlet Northern Area – fracture – bergy water 29 Jun 17 Jul 7 Aug 12 Sep 21 Jul 6 Aug 14-16 Jul 29-31 Jul Lancaster Sound Area – fracture12 Jun3 Aug06 JulMobile ice Eastern Arctic Outlook

15 Page 15 – June 9, 2014 red=late----------orange=normal----------green=early Arctic EventsEarliest Event Latest Event Median (1981-2010) Outlook Mackenzie Bay Area – open water1 Jun18 Jul20 Jun17-19 Jun Kugmallit Bay Area – open water17 Jun25 Jul24 Jun24-26 Jun Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula Area – fracture18 Jun17 Jul01 Jul30 Jun-2 Jul Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst Route – open water18 Jun27 Sep26 Jul21-23 Jul Mackenzie Bay to Prudhoe Bay Route – open drift or less4 Jul20 Sep13 Aug19-21 Jul Prudhoe Bay to Point Barrow Route – open drift or less11 Jul8 Sep13 Aug28-30 Jul Beaufort Sea Outlook

16 Page 16 – June 9, 2014 Arctic EventsEarliest Event Latest Event Median (1981-2010) Outlook Cape Lisburne to Pt Barrow Route – open drift or less – open water 10 Jun 2 Jul 8 Sep 19 Sep 06 Aug 14 Aug 18-20 Jul 31 Jul-2 Aug Amundsen Gulf Area – fracture – open water 12 Jun 17 Jul 28 Jul 23 Sep 05 Jul 15 Aug 1-3 Jul 11-13 Aug Coronation Gulf Area – fracture – open water 2 Jul 17 Jul 11 Aug 2 Sep 15 Jul 30 Jul 9-11 Jul 26-28 Jul Queen Maud Gulf – fracture5 Jul18 Aug20 Jul20-22 Jul Cape Parry to Taloyoak Route – open water1 Aug20 Sep12 Aug6-8 Aug Larsen Sound Area – fracture16 Jul7 Sep28 Jul22-24 Jul Peel Sound Area – fracture11 Jul2 Sep29 Jul26-28 Jul Central Arctic / Alaska Outlook

17 Page 17 – June 9, 2014 Resolution in space and time does not meet CIS requirements Rather than providing a monthly average product, it would be useful to have ice extent for the first and second half of the month issued every two weeks (in order to compare with CIS ice climatology normals) CanSIPS doesnt do well for the crucial central CAA during the peak summer season (July-September) - due to coarse resolution? it is important for mariners to have a very good forecast in narrow channels around Resolute and for ships coming from Foxe Basin CanSIPS should use CIS ice climatology normals to calculate anomalies CIS Comments on CanSIPS outputs

18 Page 18 – June 9, 2014 Suggestions for CanSISE Work Determining the skill of CanSIPS forecasts as a function of forecast duration, forecast area and forecast parameter How do these forecasts relate to the various forecast parameters included in CIS seasonal forecast products? How can CIS make the most effective use of ensemble forecasts? What is the impact of initial conditions? The narrow channels of the CAA are critical to shipping, how can we use the forecast? How can the forecasts be downscaled to the forecast areas of interest to CIS? How can the sea ice forecasts be best presented? Are graphical probabilistic maps of use/interest to CIS clients?

19 Page 19 – June 9, 2014 Questions?

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