SOCKEYE Pre-season Forecast and Plan/Retrospective Forecast 570,000 (represented an average of the two best performing forecast methods) Actual forecast point estimates ranged from ~ 330K to 815K Large esc in 2001 and 2002, but 2001 esc skewed to GCL with Sproat esc of 158K only slightly above the average for the stock. Return of earlier age classes from the contributing brood years lower than expected (i.e. return 32s and 42s from the 2001 brood in 2004 and 2005 and 32s from the 2002 brood in 2004).
Somass Sockeye Pre-season Management Objectives: avoid front-end loading of catch Manage by weekly harvest targets, Commercial: First anticipated opening was June 28 (gillnet) Sport: 4/day to end of June, reassess First Nation: no explicit plans without agreement, goal, manage to weekly catch targets Intent: To reduce risk later in the season (risk from factors such as a potential downgrade or environmental conditions that may lead to increased harvest rate due increased catchability and/or fish mortality … not meeting escapement target)
Somass Sockeye Weekly Review EscapementTest FisheryCatchTotalRun size W\EWeeklyCummulativeAccounting 14-Jun5809 (1000)In - 0, Out 8k4149501618,825 21-Jun24,000 (1000)In - 7k, Out 20K4031904761,047570k 28-Jun51,385 (2000)In - 20k, Out - 30K13,41022457125,842570k 06-Jul61,157 (2000)In - 80k, Out - 15k14,27136728205,911415k 13-Jul72,584 (3000)In - 80k, Out - 15k19,58556313231,897415k 20-Jul115,000 (13,000)In - 45k, Out - 8k11,77568088267,692370k 27-Jul136,000 (1,500)In - 40k, Out - 5k3,44071528272,425345k
2006 Chinook Forecast Total return to Canada in the absence of fishing115,500 Estimated pre-terminal catch (not incl. Aug-Sep BSnd sport) 25,500 Estimated return to the terminal area~90,000 Required escapement goal~30,000 Available Terminal TAC60,000 Alberni\BSnd sport20,000 Commercial GN/SN20,000 First Nations 20,000
2006 Chinook Forecast The 2006 return is a result of the 2001-2003 brood years. Marine survival rates estimated to be almost 8% for 2001 and declined to less than 2% for the 2002 and 2003 brood years. 25% 3 year olds from 2003s 99,000 return 28% 4 year olds from 2002s 83,000 return 46% 5 year olds from 2001s 45,000 return Expected return of females: 50%
Somass Chinook Chinook Catch By Week Wk Ending Recreational Comm GN Comm SN First Nations Aug-0956 Aug-16576 Aug-2325618131186 Aug-304218442504 Sep-06309170149734 Sep-137944656179512577 Sep-21 533362964 Total1129612978213126965